Phillies Should Trade For This Guy

Gerrit Cole was just 22 years old when he pitched his ass off for the Pirates in the 2013 NL Division Series.

In 11 innings, the electric Cole gave the Cardinals five hits, three runs and two walks for a stingy 0.636 WHIP. The No. 1 overall pick of the 2011 MLB Draft seemed headed for superstardom.

It hasn't happened. Now 26, Cole is a very good ML starting pitcher, but one who is repped by Scotty Hardball Boras.

Not since Katie Holmes married Mr. Scientology has a divorce been so obviously destined.

The Pirates are not going to be able to sign Cole. Of course, that doesn't mean they need to move him now either -- especially when it represents selling low.

Then again, few teams possess the prospect inventory the Phillies have. This is a deal that makes a great deal of sense.

Principal Owner John S. Middleton does not strike me as a patient man. And he has watched the Braves race past his franchise with a rebuild on steroids. Atlanta is executing a bold, two-track philosophy -- trading for young prospects at the same time they are adding veterans.

The Phils appear to be plodding along in comparison. I don't think that is going to continue much longer with Col. Middleton upstairs.

Obligatory bullet points:

The Phillies need starting pitching. This deal most likely isn't happening. But it does represent the biggest need. The Phillies will not be competitive again until they add some reliable starters alongside Aaron Nola. They will be looking for a veteran to replace Jeremy Hellickson.

Free agency offers no answers. Guys like Jake Arietta, Yu Darvish and Johnny Cueto are no fit agewise. That means taking a shot on a mediocre arm like Chris Tillman, Matt Moore or Michael Pineda. Given the largely failed experiments with Hellickson and Clay Buchholz, that feels about as appealing as a rectal exam.

Too many prospects? Yes, it's possible to have too many prospects in the abstract sense. We are seeing some of that system pressure now with Scott Kingery and Rhys Hoskins stuck in Triple AAA. ML tryouts become shorter, patience wears thin, and, hasty decisions can mean you end up developing players for other teams.

The Phillies system is having a phenomenal 2017. SP Sixto Sanchez is like the long-forgotten raffle ticket that yields a Porsche Boxster. The aforementioned Kingery is headed for a 30-30 season. Every team has a winning record. OFs Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams are having terrific seasons at the big club.

Add to that yet another top 10 prospect on the way via a soon-to-be-executed Pat Neshak deal, and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft. In short, I'd like to see us trim the cream a little and convert it into an established player.

Mickey Moniak, Franklyn Kilome, Cesar Hernandez and Drew Anderson are some pieces I'd put on the table here. Perhaps the GMs work in a Knapp-for-Cervelli angle to relieve the always-cash-poor Buccos of the $22-odd million owed the catcher.

Why Cole? Valid. After all, it isn't like we can leave Boras in Pittsburgh. And this is a player who has regressed, which I generally find as a red flag. Cole has had problems with home runs, an affliction that won't improve at the Bank.

I think the Phillies need to go big. There's a dank staleness hanging around this team so thick, you can almost see the mold starting to grow.

This organization has had great success taking talented SPs who have disappointed in other cities and making them stars. Steve Carlton, John Denny and Curt Schilling to name three.

Cole is 27 in September. He isn't an ace, but with a change of address, he might be ready for that stardom. He might be ready to lead a staff as a young veteran. He might be ready to earn a $150 million deal.

I wonder what Matt Klentak thinks?

Phillies Primed for Quick Rise

Ryan Spilborghs remembers ripping the Houston Astros three years ago for "failing to put a competitive team on the field."

"Spilly," a host on Sirius XM MLB Radio, had some justification for the on-air outburst. Houston had lost 106, 107, 111 games, and was stumbling through another losing 2014.

But within the carnage, seeds were sprouting. Outfielders George Springer and Jake Marsinick struggled through their first Major League action, while 2B Jose Altuve and SP Dallas Kuechal broke through with plus-plus seasons.

"I wasn't thinking player development happened at the Major League level," Spilborghs recalled during a recent show. "I thought you came here as a finished product. That's not true."

The 2017 Philadelphia Phillies have the potential to be remembered alongside the Ricky Watters signing and the 1981 Eastern Conference Finals as one of the worst city sports debacles. It's a stink bomb, a Dumpster fire, a nightly Twitter mockfest, and many other descriptions not fit for a family blog.

Alas, if you squint hard, signs a life are evident. I mean you really gotta squint George Costanza-style to see it, but they are there.

Remember, the 2015 Houston Astros went 86-76, improving by 25 games in two years. The Phillies' tan... ahem, rebuild, has often been compared to Houston's, so a similar turnaround is not out of the realm. It is characterized by a wave of young prospects hitting the big club over a short timeframe.

The premise is simple -- guys bond and grow together and the cream rises to the top.

As Keni Burke say, "The time has finally come. Let's get it done..."

Okay, so let's put on our Costanza glasses and squint us some dimes. Three things I like about the squad:

* Aaron Nola: I doubt Nola will ever carry the team as its ace, but he's going to be a damn good No. 2 starter with a Tim Hudson/James Shields type career. Nola just turned 24 and is in his third big-league season. So much for the Phillies-don't-promote storyline.

In his last four starts, Nola has pitched 28.1 innings and allowed three earned runs. He appears to be through the sticky wicket that tends to greet all young pitchers.

FYI, I think the best move the Phils can make going forward is to acquire a frontline starter to pair with Aaron.

* Freddy Galvis: Speaking of Nola, he made some interesting comments on Freddy the other day.

"The guy is unbelievable, man," Nola said. "I wouldn't want anybody to be at shortstop other than that guy. He's been great for us. He's our leader."

As a journalist, you develop an ear for comments that fall outside the normal boilerplate. Nola is revealing some candor here. Or perhaps he was just grateful for plays like this:

Freddy being Freddy. pic.twitter.com/N4cfw9Dtzh

— Phillies (@Phillies) July 7, 2017

I like Freddy. I like players who constantly fight off challenges and survive. Fans have been trying to run Galvis out of town for years. Yet he remains.

Look, Freddy has his warts and we all know them. But I'll never criticize a player who is constantly improving because it's the best evidence we have of work ethic.

Freddy's OPS the past three years: .546, .645 and .673. Currently, it stands at .710. After walking 25 times all of last year, Galvis has 22 walks already this year. If he can pair a .700 OPS with the terrific defense, Freddy is a starting SS on a winning team.

Yeah, I said it.

* Andrew Knapp: If you haven't been paying attention lately, you might have missed Knapp becoming the starting catcher.

The receiving skills are coming along nicely. At the plate, Knapp has a strong walk rate, a .362 OBP and a .755 OPS. A switch-hitter, he has pop and runs well.

At a time when plus catching is as scarce as a city parking spot, Knapp is developing value.

I haven't even mentioned Altherr, Kingery or the Nicks (Williams and Pivetta).

There's some good player development going on at the Major League level.

And the worst might be behind us.

Sam Who?

Bryan Colangelo became the Sixers’ GM this weekend.

Oh sure, it was fun seeing BC turn Danny Ainge into a whimpering “It was the best offer we got” loser in the pre-draft blockbuster trade. Aingey hadn’t been so humiliated by a Sixer since Sedale Threatt, circa 1986 (YouTube it).

The Boston trade netted Philly the best player in the draft in Markelle Fultz, a perfect fit on a team desperate for backcourt playmaking.

But it also left a young and tantalizingly talented team with two glaring needs: a three-point marksman and a versatile frontcourt presence – a “stretch four,” if you will.

Simply put, the Sixers needed a shooter to compliment the array of playmaking, multi-dimensional offensive pieces they have assembled.

Not just a good shooter. Not a streaky Robert Covington, or an improving Nik Stauskas. They needed somebody who can deliver like Mitch McConnell in a smoky Senate cloak room (I know they don't smoke anymore, but work with me).

They needed JJ Redick. At a time when 37-38 percent shooting from downtown is good, Redick shot 44 percent in four years with the Clippers. He might be the best three-point shooter in the NBA.

To put that value into perspective, consider that Redick literally does nothing else. He doesn’t rebound, or guard very well. His assists, blocks and steals are negligible.

But he shoots and scores in a way that changes the outcome of games. Minnesota wanted Redick, as did New Jersey and Houston. Some were offering more years and a lot more money.

For Colangelo to get Redick on a one-year contract is a value deal into which Warren Buffett would invest.

A few hours after Redick signed, Philly announced a one-year, $11 million deal with forward Amir Johnson. It got little notice, but could turn out to be Colangelo’s best move of the offseason.

Johnson is going to bring so much to the 2017-18 Sixers. Hyperbole, you say? Consider that Johnson posted a 5.0 WS (win shares: “an estimate of the number of wins contributed by the player.”) this past season.

That is higher than Redick, whose Clippers also made the playoffs. The Sixers were led by point guard TJ McConnell with 3.8.

Amir Johnson brings versatility. He can play the three, or the four. He can play inside. He can play outside. He can shoot the three (career-best 41 percent in 2016-17).

Amir Johnson brings durability. He has averaged 78 games played the past five seasons. Given the injury uncertainty in the Sixers’ frontcourt, this is not insignificant.

Amir Johnson brings rugged defense. Where Jahlil Okafor played the patrolman waving cars through, Johnson will be the spike strip thrown across the lane. He will do the dirty work bumping, grinding and pushing opposition bigs off the block. It’s his calling card.

Most of all, Amir Johnson, 30, brings leadership. He came into the NBA straight from high school in a bad decision that worked out. A second round pick, Johnson played just 11 games his first two seasons with the Detroit Pistons.

Most players in this situation would likely fade away, felled by scant playing time, dwindling opportunities and the lure of a few hundred thousand dollars in their bank accounts. I don’t know the details of his story, but Johnson obviously persevered and made it.

That he did it by making himself a defense-first player only adds testimony to the strength of his character. I am guessing that Johnson has seen it all and will be an immense resource to Fultz and the other baby Sixers.

We were unsure about you, Bryan Colangelo. At times, you look and act too much like a villain in a bad "Die Hard" sequel.

But even the hardiest Process Trusters have to admit it: you’ve aced this offseason.

Time to Get Real Phillie Fans

The Phillies are a deplorable baseball team.

But you don't need another stupid blog to tell you that. Here's the kicker: settle in, because it's not getting better anytime soon.

David Murphy did a good job the other day explaining why the Phillies are not the latest turnaround story to follow the Astros, Cubs and the like.

To recap, the organizational depth was so bad, just building a prospect baseline was going to take at least three years. That part is essentially done.

Need a No. 4 starter prospect? Phils got ya covered.

I bought into the hype as much as anybody. As the likes of Zach Eflin, Ben Lively, Jake Thompson, Jerad Eickhoff, Nick Pivetta and others rolled in, it felt like National Signing Day and we were all Nick Saban.

A closer look revealed that "______ projects as a No. 4 or 5 starter." I shook it off. After all, we need No. 4 and 5 starters, and surely one or two from the group will surprise, right?

At this point, it looks like it might be going the other way. Maybe a couple of those guys will stick as Kyle Kendrick-type fringe ML starters. Some others will succumb to injury, or just never escape AAA.

To be blunt -- the Phils lack top-end talent. There's no Sandy Koufax, let alone a Don Drysdale. There's no 6, no 11 and certainly no 26.

Aaron Nola is the best of the bunch on the hill. On June 5, 2016, he authored six shutout innings vs. the Milwaukee Brewers to lower his ERA to 2.65. In 14 starts since then, Nola is 3-8 with a 7.45 ERA.

Nola seems like an earnest kid with a serene maturity about him. I think his career will closer mirror Roy Halladay than David Clyde. But right now, it's not good.

Then there's Maikel Franco. He's hitting .219. At least that's better than JP Crawford, who checks in from Lehigh Valley at .196.

It might be time to consider the idea that these are not the future cornerstones to turn the franchise around.

So the next time a junior Phillie is mashing at LV or Reading, I will remind myself that it's a very different stage at Citizen's Bank Park. For that reason, I'm not mentioning the LV first baseman or the Reading second baseman.

The Phillies need stars. They need some luck. Mickey Moniak also seems like a nice kid and might have a nice career, but they need to draft No. 1 in a year featuring a Bryce Manny Bryant prospect at the top of the class.

Maybe the 2018 draft. And maybe they sniff .500 in 2019.

Until then, let's console ourselves with the best thing the 2017 Phillies have going: Howie Kendrick is hitting .345.

If he keeps this up, he'll surely net us a No. 4 or 5 starter prospect at the deadline.

Political Incorrectness in Action

I heard them chattering to one another as I held up the line to finish filling out the form.

The form allowed us to send somebody behind the voting machine with an elderly voter who requested help. I was holding up the line to complete the form.

"This is how easy it happens," I heard her say as I added the voter's address after looking it up.

"Yeah, from what I heard, it's going on everywhere," he responded as I signed my name. "You can't trust the system."

I finished and smiled at them. The man looked back with equal parts distrust and disgust. We signed them in and they moved on.

The above is a re-creation of what I heard Tuesday about 11 a.m. at Lower Allen 6. I can't say with certainty what they were talking about, or that the man's look was directed toward me.

He might have been annoyed with the 15-20 minute wait times. I am 85 percent sure they were talking about "it." The wonderfully liberating political incorrect narrative that the system is "rigged" and voter fraud is rampant.

I do know that I've worked six election days now. And I can say with 99 percent certaintly that I didn't hear a single concern about this during the five previous elections.

I heard 7-8 comments Tuesday from our voters. I escorted one woman to the machine and explained how it works. She had but one question: "this isn't going to change my vote to the other candidate after I leave is it?"

I felt a pinch of sadness for her as I walked away.

Of course, there has been voter fraud in our history. Just like movie theaters have burned down.

But you still can't yell "fire!" in a crowded theater. Shaking off the shackles of politically correct speech has a certain charm, but it can be dangerous, too.

When people stop believing in the levers of government, it's a short road to anarchy.

Hopefully, we are done with this.

Your Phillies Offseason Primer

With the season winding down, attention will soon turn to the offseason for our favorite Phightins. And it will be an active Hot Stove for the Phils.

I doubt there's a team in MLB with more assets and flexibility to deal than the Phillies. They can literally go a dozen different ways and it will be interesting which paths they take.

Will they continue to be patient? Or will they push ahead toward contention? Whatever they want to do, they have the chips to do it.

Let's break it down:

40-Man Roster Decisions: Last year, the Phillies added four players to the 40-man roster; the year before they added three. This is typical of most teams.

The current state of the Phillies' farm system is atypical. They lack top-end superstar projectible talent, but otherwise, they are loaded with ML prospects. They will add as many as a dozen players to the 40-man roster this fall.

(By way of background, players must be added to the 40-man within five years if they were drafted or signed at 18 or before, or within four years in they were drafted or signed at 19 or later. It's more complicated than that, but those are the basics. Players in this category who are not protected this way are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft in December)

Players who must (and will) be added include: OF Nick Williams, C Andrew Knapp, SP Ben Lively, SP Ricardo Pinto, SP Elniery Garcia, OF Dylan Cozens, SP Alberto Tirado, SP Mark Appel and SP Nick Pivetta.

Then it gets tricky. Any team that selects a player in the Rule 5 draft must keep him in the Major Leagues all season. Will someone take a flier on slick-fielding, light-hitting SS Malquin Canelo? Or intriguing 2B Jesmuel Valentin? Or big-armed reliever Miguel Nunez? Or 20-year-old raw power OF Jose Pujols? Or OF defensive whiz Carlos Tocci?

The Phils want to keep all five, but can they spare the roster spots?

Seven veteran free agents will free up seven spots. Some other veterans like Darren Ruf, Phil Klein, Colton Murray and Patrick Schuster will certainly lose their spots.

But the Phils want to sign some free agents, too. Let's take a look at that group.

Free Agency: Unless players just flat out boycott the Fightins, GM Matt Klentak is going to sign him some free agents.

A safe bet is one starting pitcher and one middle-of-the-lineup hitter. Our SP starts with Jeremy Hellickson. Whether it ends there depends on the player.

The Phils will likely make him a qualifying offer and be happy to pay him $17 million for one year. Or will they work out a long-term deal? I think a three-year, $40 million deal makes some sense.

Full disclosure: I wasn't too excited about Helly when he arrived via trade, but he's been good. Was it just contract-year focus?

If Hellickson signs elsewhere, the Phils will take a draft pick. Other internal options include a one-year option on Charlie Morton for $9.5 million. I'm not sure they'll be too interested in that given Morton's inability to last beyond April this year.

Other SP possibilies are too numerous to name here and include free agency and trades.

Several bats have been connected to the Phils. Let's look at three names that would represent a couple different strategies:

1. Martin Prado. I think this is my preference. Prado checks all the boxes: leader, position flex and, unlike our current lineup, he gets on base. Despite playing nearly every game this season, Prado K'd just 64 times and has a .364 OBP. He would replace Andres Blanco as a Phils leader. Jon Heyman projects 3 years, $33 million.

2. Jose Bautista. This would represent a different direction and might indicate the execs think the Phils are closer to contention that I do. Bautista is nearly 36 and he only plays OF and he will play every day he's healthy. In short, he's a major personality who would take over the clubhouse and be the face of the team. Is that good? I am torn. Bautista is definitely an on-base machine when healthy. But would this be another Danny Tartabull signing? Heyman: 3 years, $60 million.

3. Ian Desmond. Similar to Prado in that he has position flex for IF or OF. Otherwise, I do not like this at all. Desmond's career average for 162 games is 41 walks against 157 Ks. Not what this team needs. Sure, he has 22 homers. But Freddy Galvis has 19 homers and just 6 errors. Desmond is a failed defender at SS who averaged 22 errors his last three years with the Nats and hit .244 in 2014-15. Pass. Heyman: 4 years, $64 million.

Trade Route: Let's talk about the Phillies' farm system for a moment. The Phillies' U.S.-based farm teams combined for a .595 winning percentage, the best of any franchise over the past eight years.

Simply put, the Phils' system is loaded with perhaps three dozen future Major Leaguers. In particular, teenage prospects with high ceilings. The Phils' rookie Gulf Coast League franchise went 43-15 this summer.

If there's such a thing as having too many prospects, the Phillies are close. That 40-man roster crunch eventually becomes an issue.

Secondly, the Phillies have some Major League trade chips. One, in particular, in C Cameron Rupp. Solid catching is in short supply across MLB, but the Phillies have one of the best in Rupp, a solid defender with 24 doubles and 15 homers.

Perhaps as important, he won't command big money until 2021. With Knapp and Jorge Alfaro, the Phils also have perhaps the best pair of catcher prospects in the game.

Thirdly, and this is big, the Phillies have just $24.2 million in salary commitments for 2017. Of course, contracts will be renewed for a slew of young players and those should add up to about $15 million or so.

If the Phils match their 2016 payroll of $88 million, that leaves close to $50 million to play with. What it means is the Phils are an attractive trade partner for fat contracts.

If, say, the Red Sox want to rid themselves of the balance of Pablo Sandoval's $95 million deal, they might look south. Klentak will ask for a frontline player to be included.

The Phillies' needs are obvious -- an ace starter and a couple All-Star caliber offensive players. Klentak's task is to find them, and he has every available tool with which to do so.

What would you do?

My Midseason Top 10 Phils Prospects

It's the All-Star Break and I've seen two midseason prospect lists this week. Seems like I'm due to unveil the Hilton Top 10.

Here we go:

1. That Crawford kid. The most obvious pick on the list. Right now, JP is ranked more on his potential than actual production, but that potential is breathtaking. He's a bonofide five-tool player at the game's marquee position.

Put it this way: Take the best of Jimmy Rollins and Derek Jeter and you have Crawford's potential. He'll be a far superior defender to Jeter, while his walk and OBP will make fans forget Jimmy's first-pitch popups.

A stud.

2. SP Jake Thompson. I have concerns about the low strikeout rate, and he has more walks than you'd like. But my theory is simple: by the time players get to Triple A, they are facing Major League opponents every night. Maybe not every at-bat, but the majority of Triple A players are either former or future big leaguers.

And Thompson has flat-out dominated. He's 7-5 with a 2.58 ERA on the season, with 88 hits in 104 innings. But in his last seven starts, covering 49.1 innings, Thompson has allowed four runs.

He's ready.

3. OF Nick Williams. Many lists have Williams second and Thompson third. I like the pitcher's consistency and polish at this point. As everyone knows, Williams has been benched three times this year.

I don't think it's a long-term problem, but more a case of tough love that will benefit Williams down the line. He does has a quick bat and high athleticism. He's hitting .287 with 20 doubles, 4 triples and 8 home runs.

He's close.

4. C Jorge Alfaro. Some injury concerns here, but Alfaro has tremendous power and a rocket arm. He's hit .287 with 11 homers and 46 RBIs at Double A. He had 5 walks in his first 53 games, and eight walks in his last five games.

That's encouraging if it continues. Seems he is working on that part of his game. Possibly the best catcher prospect in baseball.

5. OF Mickey Moniak. The first four are easy. It gets interesting at No. 5. I'm going with the kid. Yes, he's just a few weeks out of high school, but being the No. 1 overall pick carries some cache. And the Phils under Joe Jordan have nailed these first picks.

Oh, and it doesn't hurt that Mickey Mo is hitting .400 through seven Gulf Coast League games.

6. 2B Scott Kingery. OK, now it gets really interesting. I love Scott Kingery. He's had the kind of season professional hitters have, stacking solid game upon solid game. I love the comparisons to Dustin Pedroia (diminuitive second baseman from Arizona colleges).

At present, Kingery is showing doubles power -- his 27 doubles are 10 more than all but three other players in the tough Florida State League -- but that should turn into a few home runs with time.

I love that Kingery set a goal this year, to be a better base stealer, and achieved it. His 22 steals are fifth in the FSL. I love how he hit leadoff for a long stretch, then spent a few weeks batting third. Lately, he's been hitting second. To me, that's a sign the big club sees him as a top-of-the-order hitter.

I expect Kingery to rip up the Eastern League next year and be the Phils' opening day second baseman in 2018.

7. OF Cornelius Randolph. It's been a rough year for the 2015 first-round pick. But I still remember the strong start in the GCL last year, when he hit .302 with 32 walks/32 Ks. Randolph was on an 8-13 streak with Lakewood before a shoulder injury knocked him out for more than two months.

He is back in the Lakewood OF and should be fine.

8. C Andrew Knapp. I was going to leave Andrew off this list until I heard the CSN Philly guys talking him up. Not because the bat has been so-so -- .266, 7 homers, 30 RBIs.

I think the bat will be fine, but I am not sure catching is in Knapp's future. And I couldn't put him on this list as a first baseman, where he'll likely end up. Andrew has devoted his attention to defense this year, and the results have been shaky. He has 7 errors and 10 passed balls. Unacceptable.

But, as the CSN guys reminded me, Knapp is still a switch hitter with power from both sides who hit .308 last year with 35 doubles and 13 homers.

Let's keep him right here.

9. SP Adonis Medina. The Phils have had some disappointments within the starting pitching crew. Notably, Kilome, Pinto and Asher. The 19-year-old Medina has dominated and offers thrilling potential.

In four starts at short-season A ball, Medina has allowed 7 hits and 1 run in 22.1 innings. You'd like to see more than nine Ks, but he seems to know how to pitch and how to get outs. That's rare in a young guy.

Of course, the minors are filled with young pitchers who can get young hitters out. But Medina reportedly can throw it up to 95, with a promising slider and change.

10. 1B Rhys Hoskins. Lots of candidates for this last spot. Pitchers Ben Lively and Nick Pivetta have done well. OF Roman Quinn was on fire until yet another injury. But this spot comes down to Hoskins or his home run partner, Dylan Cozens.

I am surprised Hoskins won my vote to be honest. But he is posting his second straight strong season, following up 17 homers and 90 RBIs with 25 home runs (and counting) at Double A. His average is above .300 during that time.

Hoskins was a 5th round pick, just like another pretty good Phillies first baseman named Howard.

But Hoskins is here over Cozens because of his splits. He does have 16 homers at the Reading launching pad, but he also has 14 doubles and 9 homers on the road.

Cozens, on the other hand, has 17 doubles and 20 homers at home, compared to 9 and 4 on the road.

I'm concerned that Hoskins is just another plodding righty with little speed who strikes out a lot. A lot of those guys, like Mark Reynolds and Russell Branyon, to name two, don't make it.

But in a season where the lumbering Mark Trumbo is rescuing his career, I'm giving Hoskins a shot.