Tuesday, December 29, 2020

My Favorite Books I Read In 2020


As years go, 2020 was like an endless December train ride through Barrow, Alaska.

Dark and dreary, stressed and weary.

It was a good year in at least one respect. It was a good year for reading. Even when the library closed for weeks in March and April, it gave us time to pick through that mounting pile of "books I plan to read but know I probably won't."

The lockdown inspired me to start a diary to catalog what I am reading by title, author and a few thoughts that I took away from each book.

I read 29 books this year, from "Killers of the Flower Moon" by David Grann to "A Promised Land" by Barack Obama. While both of those are fine efforts that I recommend highly, they did not make the list of books I enjoyed most in 2020 (not published in 2020, but read in 2020).

These six did:



1. Evicted: Poverty and Profit in the American City (2016) by Matthew Desmond.

This book is a celebrated masterpiece, hailed as "astonishing" by the New York Times Book Review and "wrenching and revelatory" by The Nation.

“This book gave me a better sense of what it is like to be very poor in this country than anything else I have read," Bill Gates said. "It is beautifully written, thought-provoking, and unforgettable."

I grew up in substandard housing, when most days meant struggling to stay warm, or to keep the rain outside where it belonged. Our need for food and a warm night's sleep often wrestled with one another. So this book hit home with its detailed descriptions of inner-city poverty and the endless cycle of dead-end options.

The book follows eight Milwaukee families struggling to pay rent to their landlords during the financial crisis of 2007-08.

Reality shows up relentlessly in these pages to counter the quixotic mantra that good things will come to those who just work hard enough. A young mother finds a tenuous existence with an apartment, child care and a job -- only to have the rug yanked out when her restaurant hours are cut without warning.

Systemic flaws are laid bare. Dumpy apartments in crumbling buildings rent for barely 10% off the rents paid for nice apartments in the "respectable" part of the city. Slumlords operate ruthlessly, piling up evictions and moving tenants in and out while mastering the loopholes and gaming overburdened courts.

Desmond's writing is pretty simple and straightforward. It's as a reporter that he shines. A professor of sociology at Princeton University and recipient of a MacArthur “Genius” Fellowship, Desmond moved into a dilapidated, inner-city apartment for months. He met tenants and landlords and convinced them to let him document everything.

Names are changed, but a rigorous fact-checking process verifies the contents. As a final layer of verification, Desmond hired a consulting firm to audit his work.

This book took about a decade to complete. Every American should read it.



2. The First Tycoon: The Epic Life of Cornelius Vanderbilt (2010), by T.J. Stiles. 

This is one of two biographies by Stiles that I read this year, the other being his his latest book, Custer's Trials: A Life on the Frontier of a New America. If someone ranks America's pre-eminent historians, Stiles is surely on that list.

The Vanderbilt book is superlative due largely to the subject material. Stiles sketches a fine portrait of "The Commodore," a hard man with few pursuits in life outside of work. Vanderbilt was so unyielding that he belittled and cast aside his own son Corneel because he suffered from epileptic seizures.

But it is Stiles' narration of the themes that changed American life to this day, and Vanderbilt's central role in those changes, that elevates this book to greatness.

Vanderbilt became a wealthy man running ferries and shipping routes to and from Manhattan. Then American innovation produced the train and Vanderbilt became a famous man -- and truly rich.

He had the foresight to see America as a country of customers at a time when few businessmen even tried to reach a regional market. Vanderbilt quickly recognized he could send passengers from New York City to Chicago if he controlled the trains and the track. Once others caught on, notably Jay Gould and Jim Fisk, Vanderbilt outwitted them time and time again.

Vanderbilt was among the first of a pioneering group of 19th century businessmen who understood that controlling all suppliers and services associated with a business meant total domination. He often took nervy risks to make those acquisitions. He was never afraid to cut fares to the point of losses in order to vanquish lesser-capitalized opponents.

Vanderbilt did more than anyone to establish the modern stock share valuation concept. Prior to Vanderbilt, stock shares were based on the future brick-and-mortar growth. It was Vanderbilt's reputation and success that moved share values to reflect the ideas and general business strength of a company.

“Vanderbilt was many things, not all of them admirable,” Stiles says in his book, “but he was never a phony. Hated, revered, resented, he always commanded respect, even from his enemies.”



3. Born to Run (2016), by Bruce Springsteen.

For a long time now I have answered "Bruce Springsteen" when asked for my favorite writer. That bordered on a frivolous response given that his writing tops out at 477 words at most ("Incident on 57th Street").

Now that the Boss is a published author, that is no longer the case. While the plot might not have been difficult, Springsteen writes with an aplomb that won over nearly all the critics.

"Astonishing," wrote Vanity Fair. "Frank and gripping," added David Brooks. "In Born to Run, he risks his mythic stature, but he emerges as more substantial, more admirable," the Wall Street Journal agreed.

A good book leaves you talking about it months later and Bruce delivers. He toes the line between frankness and class, taking care not to reveal too much about other characters in his story.

When he tiptoes around his foolhardy first marriage to actress Julianne Phillips, it feels right. We don't need to know those details. When he lights into Jake Clemens for showing up an hour late to his audition to replace his uncle, the Big Man, Clarence Clemens, it also feels right. The kid can take it.

This is Bruce revealing without being maudlin. Nearly everyone knows the story of young Bruce and his Great Santini relationship with Douglas Springsteen. It's a rock-n-roll story of father-son turmoil Bruce covered many times musically from rockers like "Adam Raised a Cain" to ballads like "Independence Day."

Against that long history, there's a simple joy in Bruce describing taking his father on a no-expense-spared deep-sea fishing trip before he died.

The book is full of candid Bruce. He reveals details of his struggle with depression, a difficult topic, especially for a world-famous multimillionaire. He handles it deftly.

My favorite nuggets relate to Bruce's management of the E Street Band. He is definitely The Boss when it comes to demanding the work, discipline and professionalism. He shares a marvelous 1985 anecdote: Bruce on stage to start a show at Three Rivers Stadium in Pittsburgh, counting off "Born in the U.S.A." while piano man Roy Bittan and guitarist Nils Lofgren remained backstage, cluelessly locked in a ping pong duel.

"Ping-Pong tables were banned for years. Heads rolled!” Bruce writes, and the reader does not doubt it.




4. The Tender Bar (2006), by JD Moehringer.

This book was the surprise of 2020. It languished on my bookcase for well over a year, part of a bagful of memoirs I purchased in late 2018 while visiting the Strand Book Store in New York City.

I pulled it down after the March lockdown shuttered the library. A decorated journalist, Moehringer shares a warm, sweet story of his eccentric family, and the everyday denizens of Dickens, a local bar in Manhasset, N.Y.

My favorite memoirs in this vein are "Running With Scissors" by Augusten Burroughs and "The Glass Castle" by Jeannette Walls. Unlike those books, there's no meanness to the adults who inhabit Moehringer's youth. That does not mean this isn't a serious book.

JD is filled with the self-doubt of someone flirting with success beyond anything in his family or extended circle. But the gang at the bar, and his ornery uncle Charlie, are all on board with Moehringer's Ivy League dreams.

I won't spoil it further. This is a charming book.




5. Barbarian Days: A Surfing Life (2015), by William Finnegan

I'm calling this a memoir, but it's also a travelogue, a history of surfing, a how-to book on surfing and part philosophy on life.

A longtime writer for The New Yorker, Finnegan has a life story made for a book like this. The guy grew up a short walk from a Lahaina beach, where he spent mornings surfing before school. He later quit a good job in his mid-20s to roam the South Pacific for several months. "The perfect wave" would be discovered in Fiji.

As a mature adult writer, he reported award-winning pieces from war zones. Finnegan married a successful lawyer and settled in New York City. Still, he spent middle age making regular surfing trips to Madeira.

I've read a lot of memoirs and this one defies traditional description. Finnegan recounts his life story amid part personal psychoanalysis and part removed rumination of the massive cultural shifts that defined the 60s and 70s. The book reads like what it is, a deeply personal story culled from decades of diary entries and memories. Finnegan does not dodge his personal failings along the way.

To someone who has never surfed and doesn't even know how to swim, the surfing material is a fascinating peek into a dynamic subculture. Many months after reading this, I remember that when you glide smoothly out of a barrel, the proper response is no response. It's a surfer thing.



6. Final Cut (1999), by Steven Bach.

A good book can teach you things. A good book can tell a great story from a unique perspective. And good writing makes a book worth your time.

Check, check and check with this joy of a book by Steven Bach. He offers a unique insider's view of the movie industry. It is certainly a rare thing for one of the producers of perhaps the biggest movie bomb in history to author a frank retelling of the entire catastrophe. But Bach does just that in what feels like a catharsis of sorts.

Before he gets to the messy "Heaven's Gate" stuff, Bach gives us a splendid history of United Artists. Given that "Heaven's Gate" killed United Artists, it is more than appropriate to remember the victim before recounting the crime.

The villain is the super-sized ego belonging to director Michael Cimino. But no matter how bizarre and diva-ish Cimino gets, Bach never reveals any bitterness. In fact, the book throughout has a carefree vibe that serves the material well.

Cimino repeatedly lies and makes outlandish demands. He insists on casting a French actress who doesn't speak English as the female lead, which would be fine if the character were French. Alas, she is an 1890s frontier woman in Wyoming.

Bach and his partner are increasingly helpless at keeping Cimino on schedule and on budget. But "Heaven's Gate" was influenced by a variety of related factors that Bach weaves throughout in fine subplot fashion. The Hollywood pressures are clear in these pages, as executives gamble to back the next box office winner.

But Bach keeps it light, a clarity no doubt helped by nearly two decades of space from movie set frustrations. He employs a wonderful writing technique of ending chapters with a clever quip or an abrupt plot teaser.

Chapter 18, for example, concludes with executives finally screening Cimino's long-delayed cut of a movie United Artists insisted, demanded and, finally, legally required him to deliver at three hours.

"We sat down, spacing ourselves widely in the large screening room, and saw Michael Cimino's 'Heaven's Gate,'" Bach writes.

"All five hours and twenty-five minutes of it."



Sunday, July 12, 2020

Total BS: The Top 5 Springsteen Concert Vids



Bruce Springsteen is most known for two things: being a great songwriter and a tremendous live performer.

I have known the former since first hearing "Hungry Heart" in the music room during my middle school days in 1980. I am appreciating the latter more these days as quarantine fever takes it toll.

The Boss on stage is magical. As he says in his autobiography "I could always get the crowd going." And it's not just Bruce. He is the bandleader of a special group of players who fit together perfectly, many of whom are still beside him nearly 50 years after they started.

Here are my top five concert performances by Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band:

5. "My Hometown" holds meaning for me as the first Springsteen song I owned and lobbied to play within my circle of teenage friends. This version is from 2013 and finds Bruce and the boys in Hyde Park, London.

Bruce is somber and the lyrics stand strong nearly 40 years later. But it's the end that give me chills. A lot of singers can whip the crowd into a frenzy and even generate a good audience singalong if the hits are big enough.

Not many can do it without a word. In fact, I doubt anyone can. The audience is held mesmerized by the Boss and they dutifully comply with his wordless instructions. Take a watch and see if you can spot Bruce's mom offstage (spoiler alert):



4. "Tougher Than The Rest" I believe this is the official music video for this song, but it captures Bruce the high energy performer as good as anything I've seen. This came during a break from the E Street Band, when the Boss experimented with different things, and got divorced.

The Tunnel of Love tour shown in these clips incorporated more theatrical aspects that any other tour. Some of that is captured here at the beginning. But most of all, this is total showcase for Patti. With piles of New Jersey-bred red hair, she stands alongside Bruce as his new sidekick. These clips are early in their lifetime partnership, but it's easy to see why they made it last.



3. "Racing In The Streets" The vocals are just okay in this 2009 performance at The Paramount Theatre. This is one of Bruce's very best songs and he gives it just a B- rendition here. The magic comes at the 5-minute mark once the vocals are done and the guys cut loose.

I count seven musicians onstage rocking out in the best rendition of the "Racing" coda that I've heard yet. Roy Bittan is an amazing piano man and he demonstrates it here. All of these guys are in their late-50s or early 60s here, which is remarkable.





2. "Dancing In The Dark." Back to London we go for this one. Everybody is having fun here, from the horn section to Bruce and Stevie yukking it up on stage to the younger-than-you-might-expect crowd singing along.

The highlight is 88-year-old Adele Ann Springsteen, pulled on stage by her famous son for a little dancing. After a cue from Little Steven, sister Pamela is next on stage to bring the jam home.





1. "Hungry Heart." This clip is stunningly good concert footage from the 2016 tour stop at Washington, D.C. Lots of great stuff here, from the crowd signing the opening verse (a Bruce concert staple) to the band in a fun mood, matched by the crowd.

But Bruce is the star here as he wades deep into the audience, then crowdsurfs his way back to the stage. The man is 66 years old here. To be a great performer, you have to love performing and Bruce clearly does.




Saturday, February 1, 2020

How Many Games Will The Phillies Win?





Now that football is nearly over, thoughts turn to baseball and our Philadelphia Phillies.

Optimism is high with Hall of Fame manager Joe Girardi, new starting pitcher Zack Wheeler, and a second season in the Bryce Harper era.

Vegas is bullish, with Cesar's Sportsbook pegging the Phils with an 85.5 over/under this week. Draftkings puts their number at 84.5.

Everything I've read this week says take the Over -- that the team is obviously improved dramatically over the squad that won 81 a year ago.

I'm not sure this is the right way to assess it. A team's expected performance has less to do with how much they have improved and more to do with the quality of their opponents and how much they have improved.

It's all relative. Nearly every team improves on paper during an offseason. If not, the general manager won't be general managing for long.

I think the Phillies have some problematic issues. Let's start with their schedule.

1. The NL East. It's not unusual for a division to have a pair of teams projected to win 85-plus games. The really good divisions have three such teams.

Then there's the NL East. The Braves lead the way at 90.5, while the defending World Champion Nationals come in at 88.5. The Mets are third at 86.5.

The Phillies' schedule starts with 57 games against these three teams all projected to be better. Oh, and the Marlins are much improved as well, or so I read.

2. The Rotation. I do think Wheeler is a big upgrade, bigger than his pedestrian 3.96 ERA. And I do expect Aaron Nola to be much closer to 2018 Nola than the 2019 version.

Still, even if these two remain healthy, that leaves about 100 games to be started by a group of Jake Arietta, Nick Pivetta, Zach Eflin, Vince Velasquez, Cole Irvin and Enyel De Los Santos.

This group pitched significantly worse than league average in 2019. After pitching mostly well during the year, Eflin is presumed to be a solid starter now. But Velasquez actually gave up fewer hits per nine and had a better K-to-walk rate.

Not sure if that is a good or bad thing. 

3. The Bullpen. I have no idea what the front office strategy is here. It appears to be "Screw it. We tried signing proven pen arms and it didn't work, so we're going with a big bunch of dudes and let's see what happens."

Hecter Neris (2.93 ERA, 28 saves) is the closer and a quality arm. That's it, folks.

The rest of the dudes fall into four categories:

The injured dudes: Seranthony Dominguez and Victor Arano had nice seasons in 2018, but spent most of 2019 injured. They could be good -- if healthy.

The lefty dudes: Adam Morgan, Cole Irvin, Ranger Suarez, Austin Davis, Francisco Liriano and Jose Alvarez are all here for your enjoyment. Some will still be here March 26.

The young dudes: JD Hammer, Adonis Medina, Edgar Garcia, Garrett Cleavinger, Mauricio Llovera, Connor Brogdon, Kyle Dohy, Tyler Gilbert, Spencer Howard, Damon Jones, Ramon Rosso, Addison Russ, Zach Warren and maybe even Sidd Finch will have a shot at winning pen jobs.

The old dudes: Drew Storen, Bud Norris, Robert Stock, Reggie McClain, Trevor Kelly and the aforementioned Liriano will also be in camp with chances.

This is going to be very competitive. Will it result in a good pen? Uh...


The Good Things

So my over/under must be about 75, right? Nope. I see plenty of good things with the team. Starting with:

1. The Manager. Gabe Kapler was an interesting experiment, but he seemed to devote too much time to finding "value in the margins." I think we lost sight of the big picture at times. Girardi is a home run hire.

2. Offense. I predicted 800 runs last year and the Phillies put up 774. The return of Andrew McCutchen and adding Didi Gregorious should put them well over 800 this year. They will get on base, hit for power top to bottom and score a lot.

3. JT Realmuto. The Phillies have one thing their division counterparts do not and that is a plus-plus advantage on offense and defense from the Catcher spot. Realmuto is the best two-way receiver in the game.

But perhaps the best thing the 2020 Phillies have going for them is the rebound factor. Outside of perhaps Scott Kingery (19 homers, 15 steals), not a single player on the roster bested their projected production.

In other words, Harper had a Harper-like season (35 homers, 114 RBI, 99 walks). He was good, as you would expect him to be, but he wasn't spectacular. Realmuto was similarly good (25 homers, .820 OPS), as were a few others.

The list of players who underperformed is long. Rhys Hoskins (.165 batting average after Aug. 1) heads the list. Gregorious (.208 after Aug. 1), Nola (2.37 ERA to 3.87), Arietta (4.64 ERA), Pivetta (5.38 ERA) and Velasquez (4.91 ERA) are among the others who nosedived.

There are good possibilities for bounceback performances from this group. Considering all the disappointing numbers, it is remarkable that the 2019 Phillies managed 81 wins.

Despite these good things, and they are good signs for the future, I remain troubled by the pitching -- both starting and relieving. Therefore, I am settling at 83-79, a modest improvement.








Sunday, September 1, 2019

Roster Rundown No. 31-40: The Journeyman Chronicles




What a strange year 2019 has been for the Phillies. A lot of what we expected to happen didn't and many of our player projections went sideways.

After a really promising start, most of it was bad. I can sum up 2019 with David Robertson. The veteran righty walked into the Phillies' clubhouse having appeared in 60+ games for nine straight years.

He will conclude his two-year Phillies career with 6.2 innings pitched after succumbing to Tommy John.

That is 2019 at Citizens Bank Ballpark.

Onward and upward. It's September again and time to evaluate and rank the 40-man roster. The 40-man is going to change quite a bit as it always does, so let's start right at the bottom and work our way up.

Summer brought with it a constant reminder of the club's new focus on winning in the form of a parade of journeyman signings. Our 31-40 list is filled with these fleeting figures.

As always, rankings are a combination of 2019 success and future value. (Last year's rank in parentheses)

40. Jose Pirela, OF (NA): A veteran with some hitting skills, Pirela was picked up for depth in late July. But he was quickly eclipsed by Corey Dickerson, and even Logan Morrison. Pirela languishes in Lehigh Valley, where he isn't performing particularly well. Will most certainly be ejected from the 40-man in October.

39. Logan Morrison, 1B (NA): One of those guys who lost it quickly in his 30s. Two years ago, Morrison hit 38 homers for the Rays and drew 81 walks. Last year, he hit .186 for the Twins and found only a minor league offer this year. A lumbering guy realistically limited to first base, it's hard to see the Phils having any use for him in 2020.

38. Juan Nicasio, RP (NA): Things have not gone especially well for the veteran righty of late. Hitters mashed him hard after the All-Star break and he's gone to the injured list twice. Looks like the end of the line for the impending free agent.

37. Drew Anderson, SP (36): Not a high draft pick, never a prospect and a pitcher with no plus pitches. Hurlers with this profile need to maximize their limited opportunities. For the third straight season, Anderson got a few innings to show the big club something. For the third year, he missed the mark. He added an unsightly 0-6, 5.77 ERA at Lehigh Valley, with a lengthy injury timeout. Last year, I wrote: "he might hold onto his spot for another year." At this point, the 25-year-old would appear to be a DFA candidate.

36. Brad Miller, Utility (NA): The much-traveled Miller once hit 30 homers for the Rays (doesn't everyone?). Seems like a long time ago. The versatile veteran popped four dingers with the Phillies, but it likely won't be near enough to warrant a return for the soon-to-be free agent.

35. Drew Smyly, SP (NA): The 2019 Phillies have a remarkable number of veteran fringe players just passing through. Smyly is another guy who has not proved worthy of 2020 consideration (7.20 ERA last five starts).

34. Jerad Eickhoff, SP (IL): This is a tough one for me. Much respect for guys who work as hard as Eickhoff does and keep getting up off the floor. However, the results just aren't there and it would be surprising to see the Phils offer him arbitration. After struggling with the big club (5.71 ERA in 11 Gs) earlier this summer, Eickhoff went on the IL. Most recently he's been lit up in Double A. The 29-year-old should get a minors deal somewhere, perhaps even at Lehigh Valley.

33. Jason Vargas, SP (NA): His six starts with the club are noteworthy for the lowest K/9 rate (4.6) you'll see in today's game. No reporters were harmed by this acquisition -- yet. Thanks and good luck with your future endeavors, sir.

32. Maikel Franco, 3B (4): Not sure what's worse, Franco's performance or me ranking him 4th last year. Yikes.

Once again, we seem to have reached the end of the Franco era. This time, it feels permanent. After a torrid April start that sparked talk of Franco smashing records for 8th-hole production, it all came crashing down after Maik's swing holes returned. When he times it up in his zone, the man can mash a baseball. The low-and-away slider is his Chappaquiddick. Good luck, Maik. Hello, Alec Bohm.

31: Andrew Knapp, C (29): While not among the highest priorities, one would think the Phils are in the market for a backup catcher upgrade.  Knapp has not produced either at the plate (.598 OPS) or in the field (20% caught stealing rate). Meanwhile, Deivi Grullon has 21 homers and a .283 batting average in Triple A. Spring training battle?

Next up: several relievers and a some minor thoughts dominate the 21-30 list.






Saturday, July 20, 2019

The Phillies Are In Trouble



Hall of Famer Greg Maddux once said "the best pitchers have short-term memory and bulletproof confidence."

Both qualities are nearly extinct in the Philadelphia Phillies' pitching room. To be perfectly blunt, the Phillies are screwed at the present point and time.

To recap, Gabe Kapler's squad entered the season with five SPs and another six Major League-ready (or close) starters at Triple A Lehigh Valley.

As the squad bears down on game 100, every one of those 11 pitchers has taken a step backwards. Some have taken a couple steps.

The comprehensive futility is downright stunning. One wonders if the organizational pitching philosophy is to blame, or if the young pitchers were never that good to begin with.

Let's rundown the (not) Elite Eleven, then discuss why the Phillies are screwed:

1. Aaron Nola: No worries here, but he has regressed from No. 1 starter status one year ago (17-6, 2.37 ERA). After a rough start, Nola has been better lately, but this team needs him to be far better than a 3.77 ERA. Most concerning is his career-high walk rate (3.8), which sat at 2.5 coming into the year.

Worst-case scenario: Maybe he's just a No. 3 starter.

2. Jake Arietta: Bone spurs might be an asterisk here. But the numbers are down: (3.96 ERA to 4.40), (.254 opposing BA to .280), (1.29 WHIP to 1.45). At 33, Arietta is a back-end starter for one more year.

Worst-care scenario: He has elbow surgery and is even less effective.

3. Zach Eflin: For much of this season, Eflin was the only bright spot. He wiped that out with his last four starts (23 ER, .385 BA against, 7 homers allowed, 9.90 ERA). Overall, Eflin's hits per nine, fielding-independent pitching, WHIP, K/9 and homers/9 are all worse than 2018.

Worst-case scenario: Eflin is never consistent enough to be a legitimate ML starter.

4. Nick Pivetta: A nightmare season. Sent to LV for a month, then banished to the bullpen this week. A 5.74 ERA, 10.2 hits per nine, 1.493 WHIP.

Worst-case scenario: We're living it.

5. Vince Velasquez: I cringed when Kapler moved Vinny to the bullpen. He is not the guy to start, then relieve, then return to starting. The numbers are predictably poor (career-worst 5.88 FIP and 2.5 homers/9).

Worst-case scenario: Not mentally tough enough to stick.

6. Jerad Eickhoff: Nice comeback story that quickly descended into hell (5.71 ERA, 6.51 FIP, 2.8 homers/9).

Worst-case scenario: Wastes a great curveball due to poor fastball command. Triple A SP.

7. Cole Irvin: Nice debut, then pounded relentlessly in 27 ML innings (7.24 ERA). Triple A numbers down sharply (2.57 to 3.76 ERA, 7.5 hits/9 to 10.5, 7.3 Ks/9 to 5.9).

Worst-case scenario: Fastball neither fast enough, nor controlled enough, to pitch in the ML.

8. Enyel De Los Santos: Was poor in limited ML time last year (4.74 ERA, 3.8 walks/9); absolutely dreadful in a similar run this year (7.36 ERA, 4.1 walks/9).

Worst-case scenario: Opts to pitch in Korea rather than move to a relief role.

9. Drew Anderson: Never much of a true prospect, Anderson seemingly put himself in position to get a chance this year with a strong spring training coming off a 2.37 FIP in 12.2 big-league innings in 2018. It hasn't worked out. In six early innings for the Phillies, he gave up 5 runs. At LV, Anderson regressed (3.87 ERA to 5.77, 2.5 walks/9 to 5 walks/9). Not currently pitching and I have no idea where he is (injured?).

Worst-case scenario: Is never heard from again.

10. Ranger Suarez: The guy with the cool name had an outstanding 2018 season (2.74 ERA in 21 starts) split between AA-AAA. Had a 5.68 ERA in seven LV starts this year before injuries necessitated his call-up. Is pitching OK out of the Phillies bullpen in sporadic mop-up situations (3.21 ERA).

Worst-case scenario: Mediocre loogy.

11. Jojo Romero: After a decent season in AA last year (3.80 ERA), hopes were high for Romero at LV. He cratered to a 9.64 ERA in seven starts before being sent back to AA (5.23 ERA in 10 starts).

Worst-case scenario: Never appears in the majors.


Screwed


You're the manager, dear reader. Pick five 2020 starting pitchers from the carnage above. Realistically, the Phillies have Nola, a rapidly declining Arietta and a hope Eflin is seriviceable.

So just reset the rebuild, right? Wrong. Once John Middleton took on $450 million or so in position-player salary, any rebuild went out the door.

The Phillies are financially committed to win now. Earl Weaver believed the "key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals and three-run homers."

The three-run bombs are there and the fundamentals can be taught. Now the Phillies need the pitching -- and desperately.

They have a couple choices, and the cost is going to be high.


  • Trade for a controllable starter, such as Robbie Ray, Mike Minor or Marcus Stroman. All three will be under contract through 2020. The prospect cost will be very steep, and the competition fierce.
  • Sign a Free Agent (or two) in the offseason. If I am an agent for Zach Wheeler, Alex Wood or Jake Odorizzi, the Phillies' pitching implosion is a utopian scenario. Middleton will likely be in a defenseless position and forced to throw a wad of money at one of these names.
The Phillies have no choice but to expend a lot of resources to upgrade the pitching.

Desperate times are here.





Thursday, June 27, 2019

Half-Philled: One Good Thing, One Bad Thing



Our Philadelphia Phillies hit the halfway point today in what has been an emotionally up-and-down season so far.

Some things have good well. Plenty has gone wrong, mostly of late. Manager Gabe Kapler used a lot of players and the squad provided plenty of highlights, starting with Andrew McCutchen smacking a home run on the season's second pitch.

This could be a 20,000-word piece getting into all of that. Instead, I want to focus on one good thing and one bad.

I'm a positive guy and I'm starting with Scottie Kingery.

The Good Thing

I was watching a game earlier this year and Kingery struck out on two breaking balls in the dirt off the outside corner. The slider away has ruined many a hitter and it looked like Scottie was troubled by the pitch.

Fast forward to the fifth inning Monday and Kingery down 0-2 to Mets P Brooks Pounders. The big righty threw the down and away breaking pitch. Scottie never flinched. He threw it again and again Kingery took it.

The 2-2 fastball caught too much of the plate and Scottie laced it into left field. The at-bat continued the ongoing success Kingery has enjoyed since that earlier game. He's rapidly recognizing how pitchers are attacking him and using his quick bat to maintain the advantage.

Pitchers threw 665 pitches to Kingery as of Tuesday and 177 of them were off the plate outside and low. That will change and pitchers will start pounding him inside eventually.

Kingery won't hit .330 for much longer, but I do expect him to remain an offensive force. I haven't compiled a great track record of predictions here, but I always like Scottie. Here is my season-ending assessment last September:

Scott Kingery, IF -- I remain a huge believer in Scott Kingery. Yes, the stats will show a very poor season, but that is hardly unusual for rookies. On defense, the Phils believe in his ability to play SS. It is a tremendous accomplishment to become proficient while converting to such a crucial position at the ML level.

On offense, Scottie is hitting .307 ahead in the count, with an .930 OPS. However, while his teammates are roughly equal parts hitting ahead and behind in the count, Kingery's at-bats are ending with the pitcher ahead three times as often.

That will change, or it should change, as Scott learns the pitchers and gets more experience. He has a great, team-friendly contract and an impressive power-speed combo that is going to play well for many years to come.


The Bad Thing

I'm going off the field for this one and into the draft room. This Phillies rebuild is not going much further without some stud pitching. We're now years into the Nick Pivetta-Vince Velasquez-Zach Eflin tryout and nobody is comparing them to Koufax, Drysdale, or even Osteen.

The Phillies need better and more reliable starting pitching. Somebody like the Dodgers' Walker Buehler or the Braves' Mike Soroka.

In fact, the organization could have drafted either Buehler or Soroka in that 2015 draft. Instead, the Phillies selected OF Cornelius Randolph. He is not in the major leagues, nor is he expected to be anytime soon.

Under Andy MacPhail, joined by GM Matt Klentak for the 2016 draft, the Phillies drafted in the top 10 four years on a row: Randolph (10th), OF Mickey Moniak (1st), OF Adam Haseley (8th) and 3B Alec Bohm (3rd).

MacPhail has said that he favors drafting position players with premium picks because they offer more certainty in projection. In other words, they are safer.

So far, that hasn't been the case with the above players. Meanwhile, several young pitchers the Phillies bypassed are thriving. Names like Matt Manning (Tigers), Braxton Garrett (Marlins) and Cal Quantril (Padres).

But the real heartburn for me is looking up at the Braves' superteam and seeing not only Soroka, but Kolby Allard (14th, 2015), Ian Anderson (3rd, 2016), Joey Wentz (40th, 2016), and Kyle Wright (5th, 2017).

The Braves have literally taken the opposite approach of the Phillies, and are staring at a staff of future top of the rotation starters.

That's tough to take, especially when several of those pitchers were taken just a couple spots after the Phillies' picks.




Saturday, March 2, 2019

All eyes are on the National League




To get a sense of how competitive the National League is, look at the projected win totals in the East: Phillies, 89.5; Nationals, 87.5; Mets and Braves, 84.5.

One-by-one, those four teams took turns adding firepower this offseason. Josh Donaldson, Yan Gomes, Edwin Diaz, Patrick Corbin, Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Brian Dozier, Andrew McCutcheon and Jed Lowrie are just some of the stars coming to the NL East.

The Phillies struck within the division, too, importing C JT Realmuto and OF Bryce Harper.

This is going to be a fun race all season long. Frankly, with 76 games to play against these four teams, it's hard to see how the woeful Marlins get to their Vegas win projection (65.5). I would take the Under on that one.

If Major League Baseball has a tanking and competitiveness problem, it isn't found in the senior circuit. In fact, the leagues stand in stark contrast to one another on this issue.

Full disclosure: I am an NL guy. Always have been. Having said that, it is hard to see any juice in the American League in 2019.

It will be an epic upset if the five playoff teams do not include the New York Yankees (95.5), Boston Red Sox (95.5), Houston Astros (96.5) and Cleveland Indians (90.5).

Perhaps you are jazzed for the expected race for the final wild-card spot among the Twins (84.5), Rays (84.5) and A's (83.5). I am not.

Of the teams starting a teardown/rebuild -- Tigers, Orioles, Blue Jays, Rangers, Mariners, Diamondbacks -- most are in the AL. Add those teams to the dreadful squads who have already bottomed out, like the White Sox and Royals, and you're going to have some terribly boring Thursday afternoon getaway games in the junior circuit.

Of course, we'll still be treated to 14 ESPN Sunday Night games between the Red Sox and Yankees to see who is the division winner and who is the wild card. Bucky Dent will not be seen in these games.

And the NL is deeper than just the East. Over in the Central, The Cubs (88.5), Cardinals (88.5) and defending champion Brewers (84.5) will slug it out.

Personally, I think the Brewers are the best team there, but we shall see.

Only the Dodgers (94.5) out West are a near playoff lock in the NL. Even the teams projected to be outside the playoff race, such as the Reds and Padres, have made enough significant offseason additions to draw interest.

The NL is going to be fun all summer long.