Sunday, May 29, 2016

Is Clayton Kershaw the Greatest Pitcher of All Time?

East Coast Bias is a real thing, especially when it comes to sports.

We only hear about the greatness of players such as Clayton Kershaw. I watched CK pitch a full game on Sunday night, perhaps for the first time.

The ESPN initiated a discussion on where Kershaw ranks among the all-time greats. I listened, watched and researched. And this guy might be the most perfect pitcher to ever take the mound.

Here's a guy who spots a fastball like Greg Maddux. He has a wipe-out slider like Steve Carlton, and a 12-to-6 curveball like Barry Zito. And he has a deceptive, funky deliver to boot.

Just an extraordinary package. His control is such that he reached 100 strikeouts Sunday against just 5 walks.

One of the very hardest things to achieve in baseball is consistent dominance. This sport is not like the NFL, where we know before the season that Tom Brady is going to toss 30+ TDs. Or the NBA, where you can bank on Lebron averaging 27+ a game.

It is extremely tough to sustain dominance in MLB. Especially from the mound. Check back in two years and see where Jake Arietta is at.

Clayton Kershaw is in his eighth year of complete domination of the Senior Circuit. During that time, he has compiled a 2.26 ERA, 10 strikeouts per nine and an astounding 0.983 WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched).

To post a WHIP below 1 for even a season is a phenonomal accomplishment. To do it over eight years is otherworldly.

But easily the most impressive stat concerning Kershaw is his hits per inning stat. He ranks second all time, giving up 6.6 hits per nine.

When I looked up the all-time list, I expected to see some of the game's greatest starters. That's not the case at all. The top is populated by wild arms who had great stuff, like Nolan Ryan.

Nolan gave up the fewest hits per nine of any pitcher in ML history. But he walked 2,795 batters! The similarly wild Sandy Koufax and Sid Fernandez are also in the top five.

Relief pitchers Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera place in the top 10.

Only Ryan and Koufax are in the Hall of Fame among the ten toughest pitchers to hit of all time.

But Kershaw is the only one who can be called a complete pitcher, a control pitcher. The significance is extraordinary. He's a pitcher who throw strike after strike, yet nobody can hit him.

Yes, Kershaw needs to shed the postseason monkey. That goes without saying.

But it might be worth staying up late for some of those Dodger games. We just might be seeing the best pitcher of all time.


Sunday, May 22, 2016

The Next Phillie Call-up Will Be (Not Who You Think) ...


The Lehigh Valley IronPigs are 8-2 in their last 10 games and sit in second place in the International League North Division.

Unlike past Phillies' Triple A teams, the Pigs are fueled by genuine future major leaguers, rather than MLB retreads. The team is stocked with several future Phillies polishing up a few final flaws to the satisfaction of the Broad Street brass.

First baseman Tommy Joseph was the first Pig to get the call. With the big club clinging to contention, Phillies' fans are eagerly anticipating the next.

Will it be Nick Williams to add some offense to the woeful outfield? Maybe Zach Eflin to punch up the flagging rotation? Even IF Taylor Featherston has a fan club of one among my Phillies circle.

No, no and nope. The next Pig called to Philly will be Edubray Ramos.

If you're asking "Who?" at this point, I am with you. I never heard of young Ramos until a couple months ago, but he has compiled an impressive record moving through the system.

The Ramos story is fascinating. Bob Brookover covered it in this February profile. Like a lot of teenagers in Latin America and South America, Ramos converted his baseball talent into a lottery ticket out of hopeless poverty.

And just as quickly, after posting a 9.53 ERA in the Venezuelan Summer League, it was over. Just 17 years old, he was out of baseball in 2011 and 2012.

The Phillies are one of just a few teams who continue to seek players in the deteriorating Venezuela. They signed Ramos in 2013. After converting to a full-time relief role, he dominated.

In 2014, Ramos posted a culmulative 0.81 ERA at three stops; In 2015, a 2.07 ERA with two teams, reaching Double A.

So far this year, Ramos has a 1.54 ERA in 17 games. He is unscored upon in seven Triple A games. Simply put, he is ready to help the big club.

Two things stand out with Ramos. Number one, he can pitch multiple innings. His 17 appearances cover 23.1 innings.

But here's the stat that Pete Mackanin and Bob McClure have to love: he has allowed one walk. That's right -- one walk in 23.1 innings. For you saber guys, that translates to a 0.73 WHIP.

If you flung your TV remote and now you can't find the little battery door (which I may or may not have done) at the sight of Andrew Bailey walking two batters in a tight 2-0 game Saturday, you welcome a pen shakeup.

Bailey isn't the answer. Colton Murray isn't a major leaguer. If the Phillies are going to continue to chase a 75-win successful season, they'll do it on the backs of the bullpen. I think it's a legit strength.

And Ramos will fit in nicely as a bridge to Neris/Gomez.

You'll see him soon.




Saturday, May 21, 2016

Should the Phillies Make a Play for Trout?


Everyone in Philliesland has an opinion on what kid GM Matt Klentak should do next.

He should promote Nick Williams; He should acquire a bat; He should trade the No. 1 draft pick for Andrew Luck. OK, only long-suffering Birds' fans dream of that last one.

The issue of the day is whether the Phils' 24-18 record is anything remotely real. I don't think it is, but that has nothing to do with what I am proposing here.

The next time the Angels drop seven of eight, MacPhail, Middleton & Klentak should dial up Anaheim GM Billy Eppler and offer any five prospects on the Philly system for Mike Trout.

The Angels are in a tough spot, since they really can't get comparable value for Trout. There's only one other player remotely like him, and the Nationals aren't trading Bryce Harper.

Trout is roughly the equivelant of two All-Star caliber players. Baseball Reference tells me that a 5+ WAR is an All Star. Trout averaged about 9.4 WAR the past four seasons. You put Trout alongside Herrera and a breathing body and the Phils are getting 15+ WAR from their OF.

That would make them immediate contenders.

Still, our top FIVE propspects, you say? Won't that devastate out greatest resource -- the bountiful farm? No.

Such a trade is still a lopsided win for the Phils, which is why Eppler will smile politely and pretend he has an incoming call. But ... maybe Trout and his agent get involved. Maybe his overwhelming desire to play close to home makes the Angels think about it. After all, Anaheim has one of the worst farm systems anyone has ever seen.

A few reasons why this is a good deal for the Phils:

1. It's prospects from the prospect list. That means Nola, Franco, Herrera, Neris, Eickhoff and Velasquez are not eligible. Fact is most prospects do not pan out. Remember Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, Lou Marson, Jon Singleton, Jared Cosart or Anthony Gose? They were all prospects Phils' fans did not want to trade.

2. Yes, it will hurt to give up Crawford, but...  You've got to give up something to get something, and when you're getting a future Hall of Famer a full three years from his prime, you only hope that an elite SS prospect who hails from Cali will entice the Angels enough to bite.

3. A Quick Reload. Phils have that No. 1 pick in a draft that has no Harper and no Trout. Various accounts have MMK preparing to spread around their vast draft cash pool with an eye toward adding two, or even three 1st round caliber talents. In addition, they are expected to sign two of the top international prospects. The Phils could ship out their top five prospects and still have a top 10 system heading into the offseason.

4. Depth, depth, depth. Some of the Phils' farm standouts thus far are not even on many top 10 or top 20 lists. Guys like OFs Dylan Cozens (an Eastern League-leading 11 HRs, 9 SBs) and Jose Pujols (leading the Sally League in HRs), and 2B Scott Kingery are playing their way onto the MMK farm reports. Fact is, the Phils' system is loaded with No. 3-4 starters and No. 6 hitters. They need an ace starter and a cleanup masher.

Swapping some of that depth could get them the latter.

The returns would be swift and strong. The Bank would sell out every night again.

Trout would become the biggest athlete in Philadelphia since Allen Iverson took the Phils to the NBA Finals. And does anybody doubt he has the stones to handle it?

It's a pipe dream I realize.

But summer and baseball are what dreams are all about.







Tuesday, March 8, 2016

The Man Who Wouldn't Be President

If Hillary Clinton does not win this thing, she will fail to become the first woman to be president. She will also become one of the more accomplished candidates -- male or female -- to fall short of the presidency.

Her 20-year resume is unrivaled among the current candidates: First Lady for eight years, U.S. Senator for eight more, and Secretary of State for four years.

But where does she stand in U.S. history? Has anyone with more impressive credentials sought and failed in multiple attempts to be president?

The answer is yes and most definitely yes.

Henry Clay is arguably the most impressive American politician never to be president. A lion of the U.S. Senate, Clay also served multiple stints as Speaker of the House and also as Secretary of State.

A lawyer and highly skilled orator, the Kentuckian negotiated some of the most famous legislative compromises of the pre-Civil War 19th century. From 1811 to 1850, few major events happened in American politics without Clay's input.

If ever a person seemed destined to be president, it was Clay. And he wanted it very badly. But Clay ran three times -- in 1824, 1832 and 1844 -- and lost each time.

I haven't read any biographies of Clay, but recently read several biographies of the men who served with him and bested him. Sometimes that can give a better read on a person.

He made one major miscalculation, otherwise, Clay was bedeviled by circumstances. Simply put, if it weren't for bad luck, he'd have had no luck at all.

"I am the most unfortunate man in the history of parties," he reportedly said after the Whigs bypassed him for the elderly William Henry Harrison in 1840.

The 1840 contest represented Clay's best chance at the presidency. President Martin Van Buren was on the ropes due to the Panic of 1837. Inexplicably, the Whigs settled on the 67-year-old Harrison, who won and died one month into his term.

But the President Clay plan went off the rails much earlier. In hindsight, it's fascinating to consider just how close Clay came to becoming not just a POTUS, but possibly an all-time legendary American figure.

By 1824, the 47-year-old Clay was an established power in Washington, D.C. He was elected freshman Speaker of the House in 1811 and used his forceful personality to remake the largely ceremonial position into the powerful post it remains to this day.

One anecdote tells the story: in one of his first acts as speaker, Clay banned Rep. John Randolph's dog from the House. Members feared the prickly and pugnacious Randolph and Clay was the first who dared confront him on the issue.

Fast forward to 1824 and Clay's plan seemed sound. In a four-man field -- Andrew Jackson, John Quincy Adams and William H. Crawford were the others -- Clay rightly assumed that none of the four would get the required number of electoral votes.

In that scenario, the 12th amendment calls for the House of Representatives to choose the president. Clay needed only to finish in the top three in electoral votes and then let his House influence do the work from there. He finished fourth.

It is likely that, at 47, he was viewed as too young by the standards of 1824 America. What Clay did next would burden him politically for the rest of his life.

In his defense, Clay only did what he did best: he struck a deal. As the three candidates fished for support in the House, sectional loyalties led to gridlock. Already a foe of Jackson's, Clay held a lengthy meeting with Adams one evening.

Soon after, Clay delivered the votes of the three states he won -- Ohio, Missouri and Kentucky -- to Adams. Five days later, the new president named Clay as his secretary of state.

The Jacksonians howled about the "corrupt bargain." For all his gifts, Clay was an intractable sort and no match for the Jackson touch. Clay's political compass failed him one last time during the 1844 campaign, when he vexed many by opposing annexation of Texas.

By this time infirmed and nearing death, Jackson smugly observed that his old adversary was "a dead political duck."

There are many similarities between Henry C. and Hillary C. Both were and are skilled Washington insiders who chased power their entire lives and lusted after the presidency.

Clinton hopes to write a different ending.





Sunday, February 21, 2016

Inside Baseball: On to Cincinnati!

When the Phillies play their first game in Cincinnati April 4, they will be tied for first place.

It's the closest to contention they will get all season. With that in mind, the most urgent business on skipper Pete Mackanin's to-do list seems to be deciding an opening-day starter.

In one corner, we have Aaron Nola, acknowledged by all to be the most talented pitcher in the organization. In the other, we have everyone else.

The latter group includes Charlie Morton, and I think he should get the ball April 4. Is he better than Nola? No. Jerad Eickhoff and Jeremy Hellickson might be a better, too.

But Morton doesn't have to be the best pitcher to fill the role I think they have in mind for him.

For sure, Morton was brought on because the Phils needed a starter and he was available for nothing. The Pirates were more than happy to offload his $8 million 2016 salary.

At 32, Morton is what I'll call a "young veteran." He's been around for a long time, but he's only thrown 875 innings.

The rest of the 2016 starts will go to Nola, 22, Eickhoff, 25, Hellickson, 29, Vincent Velasquez, 23, Brett Oberholtzer, 26, Jake Thompson, 22, Mark Appel, 24, and Adam Morgan, 25.

Many of these names show up on various prospect lists. Yes, the Phillies are young and talented, with a bright future -- emphasis on young.

I believe Phillies chief Andy MacPhail looked across town and saw the young 76ers wandering aimlessly through loss after loss. After stumbling through an embarassing couple of months, the Sixers talked Elton Brand out of retirement to babysit the striplings.

Morton as coach on the field is not a crazy thought. In a largely anonymous career to date, he's made minor news a few times. Once for mimicking the legendary Roy Halladay's delivery. Hopefully, he adopted Doc's work ethic as well.

But the thing that stood out to me is Morton's fondness for pitching inside. Nobody in baseball hits more batters than Charlie Morton, one per 11.2 innings. He led the National League in hit batters in 2013 and 2014, despite missing more than half a season's worth of starts over the two years.
 
The point, of course, is not to bean anyone. All that does is add another baserunner. What it tells us is Morton is fearless about pitching inside.

I see a lot of young pitchers seemingly afraid to throw inside. Or maybe they don't know how. The end result is giving up half of the plate, and it makes the hitter's job a lot easier.

"Pitching is the art of instilling fear," Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax said. In another interview, he was more blunt: "Show me a guy who can't pitch inside and I'll show you a loser."

Harsh? Perhaps.

I probably saw all of Nola's Major League starts last year, and my recollection is he prefers staying away from hitters. The numbers back it up: he hit three batters in 165 minor-league innings.

Eickhoff and Thompson pitched a combined 117 innings in the Phillies' organization after coming over via trade last year. Neither recorded a hit batter.

Again, it's about pitching inside. Hitting batters is merely a byproduct of that skill. The Phillies have a stable of talented young pitchers, and they need to learn to become complete pitchers.

I believe Morton is here to serve as mentor, coach on the field and leader of the staff. Can he fill that role starting the second or third game of the year? Of course.

But I think the Phils will be all in on this, and they should be.


Sunday, February 14, 2016

Obama's Jacksonian Legacy


"This vacancy should not be filled until we have a new president" -- Mitch McConnell

Barack Obama's presidency most reminds me of Andrew Jackson.

While it may seem illogical to compare anything about America's first black president with an avowed racist who smashed any abolitionist acts, there are similarities.

Above all, Jackson was a supreme political tactician. Despite his lack of formal education, few leaders have ever handled political opponents more deftly than The General.

And Jackson did not lack for quality opposition. Sens. Henry Clay and John Calhoun, as well as the brilliant Nicholas Biddle, were just three of his formidable foes.

Sen. Thomas Hart Benton is the Hillary Clinton in this analogy, an early adversary who quickly learned the political value of not holding grudges.

The former trio never overcame their stubborn opposition, and Jackson made them pay at every turn. His proficiency in trouncing Clay and Calhoun forms much of Jackson's presidential legacy.

In battles over administration appointments, nullification and the national bank, Jackson bested opponents via a series of shrewd moves. Opponents were left to claim Jackson desired to be king of his kingdom.

For a nation just a generation or two removed from the abuses of King George III, the charge was a serious one.

These days, Obama's serially vanguished opponents claim he "wants to act as if he's a dictator," as Gov. Chris Christie said recently. Dictator is the new king, apparently.

The modern-day roles of Clay and Calhoun are filled by Sen. Mitch McConnell and former Speaker John Boehner. McConnell even hails from Kentucky, the state where Clay held sway. Like Calhoun, the first vice president to resign, Boehner also gave up a power post after losing several confrontations with the White House.

McConnell welcomed the Obama presidency thusly: "My number one priority is making sure President Obama's a one-term president."

That didn't work out so well. Through healthcare, gay marriage, government shutdowns and elections, Obama seemingly emerges stronger each time.

And that brings America to the final epic showdown over the Supreme Court. Republicans would do well to stop underestimating their opponent.

Or at least set their expectations low. The Washington Post has already theorized that even if Republicans succeed in batting the nomination forward, Obama wins anyway.

The Jackson years ended with one final battle to erase an early Senate censure from the record. In the ensuing debate, Clay, Calhoun and Benton gave fiery speeches for and against as all recognized the historical importance of a final fight that closed an era.

Even as Calhoun spoke in oratory fury, Jon Meacham writes in "American Lion," "like Clay ... he knew that his was a futile argument."

Will McConnell & Co. recognize the same?


Sunday, January 31, 2016

Time to Bern? Not likely

Relax Right America, Bernie Sanders isn't going to be president.

His time is going to run out, much like it did for William Lloyd Garrison and Lucy Stone. The former was an early abolitionist, while the latter led the women's suffrage movement.

History will remember Sanders, too, once the United States completes its transformation to a complete social welfare democracy. Yes, it's inevitable.

If you're scoffing at this point, please consider the history of the American psyche. We are progressive, as all humans are. But we are the scared, suspicious, white-knuckle-freedom-clinging kind of progressive.

And that usually means the rest of the free world is likely to evolve long before we do. We like to scuffle over an issue for a few decades before we grudgingly give change a try.

Consider slavery. By the time Lincoln issued the Emanicpation Proclaimation, we were one of the last first-world civilizations still sanctioning the foul practice. It took decades, and the loss of 620,000 lives, for Americans to overcome their deep fear of change and renounce slavery.

Consider Social Security. Signed into law by FDR in 1935, the U.S. program trailed many European nations by 30-40 years. The need had existed for much longer. American ex-presidents Madison, Jefferson and Monroe all died penniless, or in significant debt, in 1825 and 1833. One can imagine how ordinary elderly citizens (if they lived that long) suffered through their final years throughout the 19th century.

Still, it would take another century and a calamitous depression to produce an old-age pensioners program. And it wasn't exactly hailed by all either. Another two-year battle would rage before the U.S. Supreme Court sided with Roosevelt and Social Security began.

Not before Sen. Alf Landon voiced the specious fears of the change-haters: "It will impose a crushing burden on industry and labor [and] establish a bureaucracy in the field of insurance in competition with private business."

Yeah, about that...

So that brings us to the current issues of health insurance and gun control. On both, we are once again trailing every significant country in the world. We are much further along on the former than the latter, but it will take some time yet before we get to the single-payer system that is all but inevitable.

The concept of President Sanders will move the boulder a few meters up the hill. But there's still too many right-winging, bitter-clinging, proud clingers out there to make it a viable option in the foreseeable future. 

Those folks will again mask their fear of change in references to the Founding Fathers and "limited government." 

In reality, those Fathers (minus Jefferson) recognized fairly quickly that there are things a strong central government can do better than the private sector. Adams, Washington, Madison and others endorsed hasty changes to give the government power to make treaties, levy taxes and build roads.

Washington sought to crush a rebellion similar to the nonsense in Oregon.

So no, Bernie isn't going to be president. But get used to his ideas. He's giving you a glimpse into the future.