Maybe It's Freddy's Team Now, Guys

Freddy Galvis should be a popular player for these down-and-inept Phillies.

He makes flashy plays from shortstop and gets big hits at the plate. He is continually improving and is well respected by coaches and teammates.

More than anyone, Galvis is the guy who keeps getting knocked down, and keeps getting back up to play. He loves the game and wants to play 162.

Galvis should be a popular player. But he isn't.

I'm struck by the number (seemingly all) of Phils fans who have long considered Galvis a bench player starting by default. And now that he's a proven starter, a guy who will be moving on as soon as feasible.

That would be 2019, when Freddy is a free agent. Most fans have him playing out a final year as a utility player, then moving on.

I would not be so sure about that.

I've written about this before, but it's worth repeating: players love Freddy. Coaches love Freddy. He brings an elite-level play (defense) to a club that has almost no elite-level play anywhere on the diamond.

"The guy is unbelievable, man," Aaron Nola said. "I wouldn't want anybody to be at shortstop other than that guy. He's been great for us. He's our leader."

I think there's a good deal of evidence the Phillies are at least open to the idea of committing to Freddy long-term. You have to read between the lines, but the signs are there:

* The Play: Freddy's OPS the past three years steadily climbed from .546 to .645 to .673. and .711 this year. That's the improvement you want to see. 

He has backed up 20 homers and 17 steals last year with 11 and 13 to date this season. More importantly, the K/W ratio improved from 136/25 to a more palatable 93/35.

The defense is electric. Galvis' defensive WAR number is baffling, but he matches Andrelton Simmons stat for stat. And Simmons is acknowledged as perhaps the best defensive SS ever.

Overall, Galvis ranks as the 13th best SS by Fangraphs WAR.

* The Faith: Why are the Phillies so committed to letting Galvis meet his goal of playing 162? A sop to a young veteran? Seems unlikely.

Manager Mackanin and Lt. Bowa are hardly the sentimental types. This certainly looks like a deferential nod to a player who is part of the future.

Mack has issued many challenges to these young Phils, and nobody has met his more than Freddy. Since installed in the second spot in the batting order June 22, Freddy has hit .280 with a .745 OPS in 57 games.

* The Leader: This is a team desperate for a leader and Galvis has filled the role. The comments from guys like Nola and Tommy Joseph and others are sincere.

Some deride the "leader" angle as an old-school idea, but it's not. Baseball clubhouses are no different from Fortune 500 companies. Leadership is a crucial part of success.

The Phillies under Mack/Klentak have shown a consistent willingness to reward those who meet challenges and perform (see Odubal's big contract). Conversely, failure to give effort and perform is met with tough love (Nick Williams, circa 2016).

I think management values Freddy a whole lot more than fans realize.

* The Minors: The final clue comes from Lehigh Valley, where prospects JP Crawford and Scott Kingery are playing different infield positions.

For different reasons it might appear. At second base, Cesar Hernandez has already been discussed in trades. But he's missed a chunk of the season and needs to remain in the lineup batting leadoff to enhance his value.

That's not the case with Freddy. So the Phillies are moving a top prospect to another position just so Galvis can meet a personal goal of starting all 162 at shortstop? I'm not sure that makes sense.

I think the Phils love Galvis for his defense, the stability he brings and the way he relates to his teammates. Most of all, they can hold him up as an example in the clubhouse. Work hard, commit to the team and good things will come to you.

I don't know what the future holds, but I wouldn't be so quick to write Freddy out of the script.

Rhys Hoskins Isn't Who We Thought He Was

Let's compare two players, both first basemen.

Player A is a 6-3, 225-pound right-hand hitter drafted in the 8th round from Texas A&M who crushed pro pitching from day one. This player was consistently downgraded by scouting services, with Keith Law calling him "a pretty limited player" and "probably a platoon/bench bat."

Even after breaking out with a .314-35-106 in high A, Baseball America rated him the #11 prospect in his organization.

Player B is a 6-4, 225-pound right-hand hitter drafted in the 5th round from California State University who crushed pro pitching from day one. This player was consistently downgraded by scouting services, with John Sickels writing: "above-average power with solid pure hitting skills to match, limited to first base defensively which can be a tough profile for a right-handed hitter."

Even after breaking out with a .320-17-90 in high A, Sickels rated him the #11 prospect in his organization.

Player A is Paul Goldschmidt. Player B is Rhys Hoskins.

Goldschmidt's debut came Aug. 1, 2011 and he put up an impressive .808 OPS with eight homers in 48 games. He has since become one of the best players in MLB.

Hoskins took the field Aug. 10 and to date has four homers and a .957 OPS.

This is a fascinating comparison to me. I think Goldschmidt is almost criminally underrated, almost never mentioned in the same sentence with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper.

Yet, Goldy has five straight All-Star appearances, a pair of Gold Gloves and two second-place MVP finishes. He is likely to win it this year.

To date, Hoskins seems equally able to avoid the spotlight. His monster 2016 campaign was partially overshadowed by teammate Dylan Cozens, who bashed 40 homers to Hoskins' 38.

Hoskins' anticipated call-up was followed by an 0-12 start, just six hitless at-bats from the Phils' record. I still doubt many people have Hoskins among the top three Phillies' prospects.

So why did the scouting evaluations miss so badly on these players?

Obviously, plodding, right-handed, power-hitting first basemen are a dubious lot. Having seen a lot of Darren Ruf and Tommy Joseph in recent years, Phillies' fans know this well.

Perhaps the answer lies in the strike zone judgment. Goldschmidt and Hoskins both put up strong walk totals in the minor leagues. Goldy walked 82 times against 92 Ks in 2011. Hoskins had 64 walks against 75 Ks at Lehigh Valley. He has eight walks and five Ks with the big club.

Joseph, on the other hand, has 54 walks against 177 Ks in two years.

It's that extra millisecond to judge the pitch location that seems to set the better players apart. Or maybe it's a millisecond quicker swing.

Whatever it is, Rhys Hoskins is in good company.

In Praise of Freddy

On June 21, despite a three-hit game, Freddy Galvis' batting average stood at a weakly .238.

There was no indication of anything more. Galvis maintained a Major League locker for five-plus years with his glove. His offense rarely offered any sustained contributions.

Then manager Pete Mackanin moved Galvis to the two hole for the June 22 game against the Cardinals. It generated no attention. Mackanin frequently moves hitters up and down the lineup, and relievers into different roles -- a habit that often earns him the wrath of fans and writers.

Freddy Galvis is why Mackanin tinkers.

In 29 games from the second spot, Freddy has hit .277 with six doubles, five homers and a triple -- good for a .471 slugging percentage. More importantly, he's drawn nine walks for a un-Galvis-like .331 on base percentage.

Even more importantly, the Phillies have scored 4.4 runs a game and the record is 13-16. Not great, but far superior to the 3.8 runs a game and 22-48 record of the first 70 games.

When the first pitch is thrown Friday against the visiting Braves, Galvis will be at his usual shortstop position. He plans to play all 162. In the bottom of the first, he'll bat second.

And the Phils are a better team with him there.

Phillies Should Trade For This Guy

Gerrit Cole was just 22 years old when he pitched his ass off for the Pirates in the 2013 NL Division Series.

In 11 innings, the electric Cole gave the Cardinals five hits, three runs and two walks for a stingy 0.636 WHIP. The No. 1 overall pick of the 2011 MLB Draft seemed headed for superstardom.

It hasn't happened. Now 26, Cole is a very good ML starting pitcher, but one who is repped by Scotty Hardball Boras.

Not since Katie Holmes married Mr. Scientology has a divorce been so obviously destined.

The Pirates are not going to be able to sign Cole. Of course, that doesn't mean they need to move him now either -- especially when it represents selling low.

Then again, few teams possess the prospect inventory the Phillies have. This is a deal that makes a great deal of sense.

Principal Owner John S. Middleton does not strike me as a patient man. And he has watched the Braves race past his franchise with a rebuild on steroids. Atlanta is executing a bold, two-track philosophy -- trading for young prospects at the same time they are adding veterans.

The Phils appear to be plodding along in comparison. I don't think that is going to continue much longer with Col. Middleton upstairs.

Obligatory bullet points:

The Phillies need starting pitching. This deal most likely isn't happening. But it does represent the biggest need. The Phillies will not be competitive again until they add some reliable starters alongside Aaron Nola. They will be looking for a veteran to replace Jeremy Hellickson.

Free agency offers no answers. Guys like Jake Arietta, Yu Darvish and Johnny Cueto are no fit agewise. That means taking a shot on a mediocre arm like Chris Tillman, Matt Moore or Michael Pineda. Given the largely failed experiments with Hellickson and Clay Buchholz, that feels about as appealing as a rectal exam.

Too many prospects? Yes, it's possible to have too many prospects in the abstract sense. We are seeing some of that system pressure now with Scott Kingery and Rhys Hoskins stuck in Triple AAA. ML tryouts become shorter, patience wears thin, and, hasty decisions can mean you end up developing players for other teams.

The Phillies system is having a phenomenal 2017. SP Sixto Sanchez is like the long-forgotten raffle ticket that yields a Porsche Boxster. The aforementioned Kingery is headed for a 30-30 season. Every team has a winning record. OFs Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams are having terrific seasons at the big club.

Add to that yet another top 10 prospect on the way via a soon-to-be-executed Pat Neshak deal, and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft. In short, I'd like to see us trim the cream a little and convert it into an established player.

Mickey Moniak, Franklyn Kilome, Cesar Hernandez and Drew Anderson are some pieces I'd put on the table here. Perhaps the GMs work in a Knapp-for-Cervelli angle to relieve the always-cash-poor Buccos of the $22-odd million owed the catcher.

Why Cole? Valid. After all, it isn't like we can leave Boras in Pittsburgh. And this is a player who has regressed, which I generally find as a red flag. Cole has had problems with home runs, an affliction that won't improve at the Bank.

I think the Phillies need to go big. There's a dank staleness hanging around this team so thick, you can almost see the mold starting to grow.

This organization has had great success taking talented SPs who have disappointed in other cities and making them stars. Steve Carlton, John Denny and Curt Schilling to name three.

Cole is 27 in September. He isn't an ace, but with a change of address, he might be ready for that stardom. He might be ready to lead a staff as a young veteran. He might be ready to earn a $150 million deal.

I wonder what Matt Klentak thinks?

Phillies Primed for Quick Rise

Ryan Spilborghs remembers ripping the Houston Astros three years ago for "failing to put a competitive team on the field."

"Spilly," a host on Sirius XM MLB Radio, had some justification for the on-air outburst. Houston had lost 106, 107, 111 games, and was stumbling through another losing 2014.

But within the carnage, seeds were sprouting. Outfielders George Springer and Jake Marsinick struggled through their first Major League action, while 2B Jose Altuve and SP Dallas Kuechal broke through with plus-plus seasons.

"I wasn't thinking player development happened at the Major League level," Spilborghs recalled during a recent show. "I thought you came here as a finished product. That's not true."

The 2017 Philadelphia Phillies have the potential to be remembered alongside the Ricky Watters signing and the 1981 Eastern Conference Finals as one of the worst city sports debacles. It's a stink bomb, a Dumpster fire, a nightly Twitter mockfest, and many other descriptions not fit for a family blog.

Alas, if you squint hard, signs a life are evident. I mean you really gotta squint George Costanza-style to see it, but they are there.

Remember, the 2015 Houston Astros went 86-76, improving by 25 games in two years. The Phillies' tan... ahem, rebuild, has often been compared to Houston's, so a similar turnaround is not out of the realm. It is characterized by a wave of young prospects hitting the big club over a short timeframe.

The premise is simple -- guys bond and grow together and the cream rises to the top.

As Keni Burke say, "The time has finally come. Let's get it done..."

Okay, so let's put on our Costanza glasses and squint us some dimes. Three things I like about the squad:

* Aaron Nola: I doubt Nola will ever carry the team as its ace, but he's going to be a damn good No. 2 starter with a Tim Hudson/James Shields type career. Nola just turned 24 and is in his third big-league season. So much for the Phillies-don't-promote storyline.

In his last four starts, Nola has pitched 28.1 innings and allowed three earned runs. He appears to be through the sticky wicket that tends to greet all young pitchers.

FYI, I think the best move the Phils can make going forward is to acquire a frontline starter to pair with Aaron.

* Freddy Galvis: Speaking of Nola, he made some interesting comments on Freddy the other day.

"The guy is unbelievable, man," Nola said. "I wouldn't want anybody to be at shortstop other than that guy. He's been great for us. He's our leader."

As a journalist, you develop an ear for comments that fall outside the normal boilerplate. Nola is revealing some candor here. Or perhaps he was just grateful for plays like this:

Freddy being Freddy. pic.twitter.com/N4cfw9Dtzh

— Phillies (@Phillies) July 7, 2017

I like Freddy. I like players who constantly fight off challenges and survive. Fans have been trying to run Galvis out of town for years. Yet he remains.

Look, Freddy has his warts and we all know them. But I'll never criticize a player who is constantly improving because it's the best evidence we have of work ethic.

Freddy's OPS the past three years: .546, .645 and .673. Currently, it stands at .710. After walking 25 times all of last year, Galvis has 22 walks already this year. If he can pair a .700 OPS with the terrific defense, Freddy is a starting SS on a winning team.

Yeah, I said it.

* Andrew Knapp: If you haven't been paying attention lately, you might have missed Knapp becoming the starting catcher.

The receiving skills are coming along nicely. At the plate, Knapp has a strong walk rate, a .362 OBP and a .755 OPS. A switch-hitter, he has pop and runs well.

At a time when plus catching is as scarce as a city parking spot, Knapp is developing value.

I haven't even mentioned Altherr, Kingery or the Nicks (Williams and Pivetta).

There's some good player development going on at the Major League level.

And the worst might be behind us.

Sam Who?

Bryan Colangelo became the Sixers’ GM this weekend.

Oh sure, it was fun seeing BC turn Danny Ainge into a whimpering “It was the best offer we got” loser in the pre-draft blockbuster trade. Aingey hadn’t been so humiliated by a Sixer since Sedale Threatt, circa 1986 (YouTube it).

The Boston trade netted Philly the best player in the draft in Markelle Fultz, a perfect fit on a team desperate for backcourt playmaking.

But it also left a young and tantalizingly talented team with two glaring needs: a three-point marksman and a versatile frontcourt presence – a “stretch four,” if you will.

Simply put, the Sixers needed a shooter to compliment the array of playmaking, multi-dimensional offensive pieces they have assembled.

Not just a good shooter. Not a streaky Robert Covington, or an improving Nik Stauskas. They needed somebody who can deliver like Mitch McConnell in a smoky Senate cloak room (I know they don't smoke anymore, but work with me).

They needed JJ Redick. At a time when 37-38 percent shooting from downtown is good, Redick shot 44 percent in four years with the Clippers. He might be the best three-point shooter in the NBA.

To put that value into perspective, consider that Redick literally does nothing else. He doesn’t rebound, or guard very well. His assists, blocks and steals are negligible.

But he shoots and scores in a way that changes the outcome of games. Minnesota wanted Redick, as did New Jersey and Houston. Some were offering more years and a lot more money.

For Colangelo to get Redick on a one-year contract is a value deal into which Warren Buffett would invest.

A few hours after Redick signed, Philly announced a one-year, $11 million deal with forward Amir Johnson. It got little notice, but could turn out to be Colangelo’s best move of the offseason.

Johnson is going to bring so much to the 2017-18 Sixers. Hyperbole, you say? Consider that Johnson posted a 5.0 WS (win shares: “an estimate of the number of wins contributed by the player.”) this past season.

That is higher than Redick, whose Clippers also made the playoffs. The Sixers were led by point guard TJ McConnell with 3.8.

Amir Johnson brings versatility. He can play the three, or the four. He can play inside. He can play outside. He can shoot the three (career-best 41 percent in 2016-17).

Amir Johnson brings durability. He has averaged 78 games played the past five seasons. Given the injury uncertainty in the Sixers’ frontcourt, this is not insignificant.

Amir Johnson brings rugged defense. Where Jahlil Okafor played the patrolman waving cars through, Johnson will be the spike strip thrown across the lane. He will do the dirty work bumping, grinding and pushing opposition bigs off the block. It’s his calling card.

Most of all, Amir Johnson, 30, brings leadership. He came into the NBA straight from high school in a bad decision that worked out. A second round pick, Johnson played just 11 games his first two seasons with the Detroit Pistons.

Most players in this situation would likely fade away, felled by scant playing time, dwindling opportunities and the lure of a few hundred thousand dollars in their bank accounts. I don’t know the details of his story, but Johnson obviously persevered and made it.

That he did it by making himself a defense-first player only adds testimony to the strength of his character. I am guessing that Johnson has seen it all and will be an immense resource to Fultz and the other baby Sixers.

We were unsure about you, Bryan Colangelo. At times, you look and act too much like a villain in a bad "Die Hard" sequel.

But even the hardiest Process Trusters have to admit it: you’ve aced this offseason.

Time to Get Real Phillie Fans

The Phillies are a deplorable baseball team.

But you don't need another stupid blog to tell you that. Here's the kicker: settle in, because it's not getting better anytime soon.

David Murphy did a good job the other day explaining why the Phillies are not the latest turnaround story to follow the Astros, Cubs and the like.

To recap, the organizational depth was so bad, just building a prospect baseline was going to take at least three years. That part is essentially done.

Need a No. 4 starter prospect? Phils got ya covered.

I bought into the hype as much as anybody. As the likes of Zach Eflin, Ben Lively, Jake Thompson, Jerad Eickhoff, Nick Pivetta and others rolled in, it felt like National Signing Day and we were all Nick Saban.

A closer look revealed that "______ projects as a No. 4 or 5 starter." I shook it off. After all, we need No. 4 and 5 starters, and surely one or two from the group will surprise, right?

At this point, it looks like it might be going the other way. Maybe a couple of those guys will stick as Kyle Kendrick-type fringe ML starters. Some others will succumb to injury, or just never escape AAA.

To be blunt -- the Phils lack top-end talent. There's no Sandy Koufax, let alone a Don Drysdale. There's no 6, no 11 and certainly no 26.

Aaron Nola is the best of the bunch on the hill. On June 5, 2016, he authored six shutout innings vs. the Milwaukee Brewers to lower his ERA to 2.65. In 14 starts since then, Nola is 3-8 with a 7.45 ERA.

Nola seems like an earnest kid with a serene maturity about him. I think his career will closer mirror Roy Halladay than David Clyde. But right now, it's not good.

Then there's Maikel Franco. He's hitting .219. At least that's better than JP Crawford, who checks in from Lehigh Valley at .196.

It might be time to consider the idea that these are not the future cornerstones to turn the franchise around.

So the next time a junior Phillie is mashing at LV or Reading, I will remind myself that it's a very different stage at Citizen's Bank Park. For that reason, I'm not mentioning the LV first baseman or the Reading second baseman.

The Phillies need stars. They need some luck. Mickey Moniak also seems like a nice kid and might have a nice career, but they need to draft No. 1 in a year featuring a Bryce Manny Bryant prospect at the top of the class.

Maybe the 2018 draft. And maybe they sniff .500 in 2019.

Until then, let's console ourselves with the best thing the 2017 Phillies have going: Howie Kendrick is hitting .345.

If he keeps this up, he'll surely net us a No. 4 or 5 starter prospect at the deadline.