Can We Finally Put 'Bad Vince' on the Shelf?

Watching Vince Velasquez pitch these days is best accompanied by alcohol of some sort, or a sedative.

Unfortunately, April 7 found me halfway around the world in Taiwan for Velasquez's second start against the Miami Marlins. That meant a 7 a.m. first pitch -- too early for beers or pills.

The agony began quickly, with typically nibbling Vince going 3-2 on the first three Marlins. Starlin Castro stroked a double. VV uncorked a wild pitch to plate a run.

It was all so familiar. Vince's first start of the year ended after 2.2 innings, with 9 hits, 4 runs and a game surrendered to the Atlanta Braves.

As Justin Bour stepped in for the Marlins, I noticed that Zach Eflin pitched a gem earlier in the day for the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs. Seemed logical that Eflin would switch uniforms with Velasquez for their next starts.

I tweeted that prediction.

Then something happened -- the Phillies' offense eviscerated Marlins' pitching. Five runs in the first inning were followed by four runs in the third and eight runs in the fourth.

Vince relaxed. The ever-present tension evaporated. He threw free and easy. He threw strikes -- a lot of them.

The final line reveals a terrific start: 6 innings, 4 hits, 1 run. You have to look closer to see VV's remarkable transformation from a thrower who threw nine balls to the first three hitters to the pitcher who offered up just seven balls the final three innings combined.

"He told me, 'I learned that my stuff is good enough,'" Comcast reporter David Murphy recounted.

His stuff has always been good enough. Vince is a legitimate four-pitch starter. According to BrooksBaseball, he threw mostly fastballs in that Marlins game, which makes sense given the huge lead.

Of the 67 fastballs he threw, 39 were "strikes not in play," a terrific 65 percent. By comparison, Gerrit Cole threw the same day, and 69 percent of his fastballs were SNIPs. Cole just set a Major League record for most strikeouts in the first three starts of a season.

Vince continued his momentum against the Rays Friday night, tossing 6.2 innings and giving up 4 hits, 1 run and recording 7 Ks.

Here's where it gets interesting: he did it with a completely different game plan. After throwing just two change-ups his first two starts, Vince threw six (with three whiffs) in the first inning alone.

Of his first 33 pitches, just 15 were fastballs. Yet, he walked just one batter on the night and had near-pinpoint control of his slider and curve.

Are we seeing a return of the 2016 Vince Velasquez who began his Phillies' career with two starts, 15 innings, 25 Ks, six hits and three walks?

This is impossible to predict given the emotional ride we have endured since that 16-strikeout complete game shutout exactly two years ago today.

I have always been a believer in Vince, while most Phillies' fans want him banished to the bullpen.

The talented 25-year-old struggles mightily with self-criticism and confidence. His last two starts are just 191 pitches of what has been a rocky, two-year maturation process.

So it's all wins and champagne showers from here? I doubt it. Vince's lone walk Friday came in the bottom of the fifth inning after a very close 1-2 pitch was called a ball. The next four pitches were out of the zone as Bad Vince returned.

Confidence and composure are things Vince is likely going to battle to control for some time to come.

The fact that he keeps getting up off the floor two years into this journey tells me he is going to make it.

Has Scott Boras Lost It?

Mike Moustakas

Mike Moustakas is not a very good baseball player -- with one exception.

And that's why he never should have refused a one-year, $17.4 million payday, the Royals' qualifying offer. Yet he did -- presumably on the advice of uber-agent Scott Boras.

Really, who could blame him? Boras is long known for delivering gigantic deals, at times in the eleventh hour when defeat seems certain.

Moustakas -- who sidled back to Kansas City on a one-year, $6.5 million deal Thursday -- represents more than comeuppance for Boras. It's a disturbing miscalculation that should concern all of Boras' clients.

Famous for his hefty three-ring binders of spin on available clients, Boras seemed to think Moose's 38 homers and .272 average would park in the 5 (years) and $75 (million) neighborhood. Minimum.

And it might have -- ten years ago. Boras, 65, is a smart guy. That's why his tactics with Moustakas are so baffling. The game has moved on from 38-homer power hitters who don't do anything else.

Moose is a below-average fielding third baseman whose last stolen base came April 11, 2015. But more importantly, he doesn't get on base. His career OBP is .305. Even in his career year last season, it was just .314.

That doesn't work in today's game where 24 of the 30 general managers are younger than 50. A dozen of those GMs are 40 or younger. They value metrics, versatility and, most of all, on base percentage.

Plodding, poor defensive players who make a lot of outs are not valued.

Moustakas' career year was worth 1.8 WAR, just short of what Baseball Reference considers a "solid starter" (2 WAR). Fangraphs' WAR calculation ranked Moose 184th (2.2).

In short, Moustakas isn't a very good player, with one exception. He was never going to get a $75 million deal, not in this or any other metric-era market.

That Boras didn't recognize that is a fireable offense.

Phillies Primed for a Huge Year (and that includes December)

Why are these guys smiling?

The game held no playoff implications and really no significance whatsoever when the Phillies took the field Aug. 19, 2017 at AT&T Park in San Francisco.
Losers of six straight, the Phils were predictably bad at 43-77 and nearing the end of yet another dreary road trip. Powered by a sixth-inning grand slam by the immortal Ty Kelly, the Phils won 12-9. And they won the getaway game the following afternoon as well.
It didn't register as anything noteworthy at the time, but I am calling it now: Aug. 19, 2017 is the date the Phillies turned the corner. They would go 7-6 the rest of August, 15-13 in September and 1-0 in October.
Most importantly, the front office kept the Mo going through the offseason. Carlos Santana adds a big stick to what should be a legitimately good offense. The Phils scored 358 runs in 75 second-half games, and if they don't surpass 750 runs scored in 2018, I'll be stunned.
By comparison, the 2016 Phillies scored 610 runs. Buckle up, folks, this rebuild is chugging into third base. Now we enter a pivotal phase -- how do MacMiddleTak keep taking even bigger steps forward on and off the field through 2018?

Ready to Win

The lineup is drawing the attention, but the Phils are made to win now elsewhere as well.
I talked in the previous post about the suddenly flush Phillies' bullpen. It's unusual to see a second-division team sporting such a strong relief corps.
Defensively, the squad should range into the gaps like Bruce Springsteen on a stage riser --  particularly up the middle, where SS JP Crawford, future 2B Scott Kingery and CF Odubal Herrera all have outstanding quickness to the ball.
Starting pitching is young and unproven, but there is hope that more than one young pitcher joins Aaron Nola in the rotation of the future.
So let's talk goals and it starts with wins. Yep, for the first time in five years or so, the Phillies' win total is going to be crucial. And it has nothing to do with contending.
But they need to post 75 wins or so to prove to free agents that they have the franchise moving toward playoff baseball. The Cubs are a good analogy here. In 2014, they confirmed they were a team on the rise by boosting their win total from 66 to 73.
A modest jump for sure. But with Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Hendricks, Kyle Schwarber and other blue chippers in the mix, the Cubs were clearly putting something special together.
It was enough to convince Jon Lester, who signed a six-year, $155 million deal. The Lester addition is the one that catapulted the Cubbies to 97 wins in 2015 and a World Series ring a year later.

This Might be Our Guy

I think there's a free agent in the 2019 group who could do the same for the Phillies. No, it's not Manny Machado or Bryce Harper.
The Phils should forget about those guys and aim their bank account at SP Dallas Keuchel. He would be the ace this rotation needs and the champion this clubhouse wants.
Downsides? He'll be 31 by then and likely still repped by Scott Boras. However, Keuchel didn't break through until he was 26 and he enters 2018 with just 984 ML innings. Better still, he's a control pitcher with a late movement that induces weak contact. He should age well.
As for Boras, he likes big numbers, so we give him a big number. After the frigid free agency of 2017, a record seven-year, $225 million deal should put us in the room.
And Keuchel seems resigned to moving on.
RP Pat Neshek said this week the Phillies reminded him of the 2015 Astros.
It makes sense to steal their ace and resemble them even more in the coming years.

Do the Phillies Even Care About Starting Pitching?

Vince Velasquez

By the time you read this, the Phillies might have already signed a veteran, free agent starting pitcher to join the endless parade of low-ceiling, Joe Blanton-alike prospects.

The fan base is certainly getting anstey to see it happen. Over the past few days, Andrew Cashner (Orioles) and Jaime Garcia (Mets) have signed reasonable two-year deals. Either one would have filled the Phillies' need for a proven rotation arm.

So who else remains in the SP bargain bin? It turns out, quite an array of options. Klentak & Co. can opt for a 30-plus hurler on a one-year deal such as Scott Feldman or Jeremy Hellickson (Side note: anyone else amazed that Hellickson is just 30 years old?).

Or they can dive in with a three-year deal, presumably at a cut rate. Jake Arietta is the name on everyone's list here, but it would take three years and $90 million (IMO) if the Phillies remain steadfast against any deals longer than three years.

Righties Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn could be had for a much lower number, one assumes.

Then there's the reclamation route, and it's a list of one for me. Chris Tillman enjoyed
substantial success pitching in the hitter-heavy AL East for several years before cratering to a nightmarish 2017 (1-7, 7.84 ERA).

There's no use dissecting Tillman's secondary numbers looking for clues. When you're that bad, every number is bad. But he's just 29, and a move to the NL might be a career-saver.

Bottom line is somebody will be signed to take some innings and hopefully provide some stability. But the starting pitching plan 2018 is pretty clear: give the ball to Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta, Zach Eflin, Ben Lively, Jake Thompson, Mark Leiter and maybe Thomas Eschelman.

These guys have peeled off the prospect label and are moving through their mid-20s. Most of them have at least two years pitching parts of a Major League season.

A team should never give up on a prospect until at least three years in the Bigs. It often takes longer than that. The aforementioned Arietta owned a 5.23 ERA after four years with the Orioles.

But most of our prospects project as back-end starters. I say that to indicate this is likely the last chance for many of them. You don't win championships by waiting five years for a starting pitcher to deliver on his league-average potential.

Certainly the Phillies have done everything they can to support these young starters. The lineup and the defense greatly improves by swapping out Freddy Galvis and Tommy Joseph for JP Crawford and Carlos Santana.

Yes, they will be throwing to young, often poor defensive catchers, an unavoidable circumstance. That the backstops are already being drilled hard on pitch framing and pitch calling is revealing.

And look at this bullpen. The Saturday signing of lefty Fernando Abad adds to a deep mix of good-to-excellent relievers that include Adam Morgan, Luis Garcia, Pat Neshek, Tommy Hunter, Edubray Ramos and Hecter Neris.

I can't imagine a sub-80-win team with a better bullpen. It's very clear the Phils are creating an environment designed for these young starters to succeed.

I think it is crucial that three of them emerge to join Aaron Nola as rotation members going forward.

That will enable the Phillies to push ahead with phase two of Operation Championship during the offseason.

Stay tuned.

Could Rhys Hoskins Bat Leadoff?

Rhys Hoskins

Former Phillies' managers Larry Bowa and Charlie Manuel were perpetually stalked by lineup experts.

Fans frequently interrupted Manuel's public meals with their lineup tips. Talk radio hosts caught on and the lineup shakeup became regular programming from 2002 to 2008.

By far the hottest take: moving Bobby Abreu to the leadoff spot. A marvelous hitter, Abreu excelled in all the third-hole hitter traits -- power, speed, average and on-base percentage.

That last one captivated us. In nine years with the Phillies, Abreu walked 947 times, stole 254 bases and compiled a .416 OBP.

That's about as great as it gets for a leadoff man. Yet it never happened. Background whispers circulated that Abreu didn't want to do it, while the managers claimed the offensive gains would be offset by the loss of BA's power from the three hole.

Whatever.

Old-school thinking still dominated the way lineup cards were made out during those days. It doesn't any longer. Gabe Kapler is the new sheriff and comes with an iPad full of radical analytical ideas.

If the 2018 Phillies came with its 2005 roster, Bobby Abreu would bat leadoff. If you follow that logic, Rhys Hoskins should be a candidate.

In 50 games, Hoskins clubbed 18 homers with a .618 slugging percentage. But he also walked an Abreu-like 37 times for a .396 OBP.

The big first baseman did nearly all of his damage batting cleanup -- the traditional spot for a lumbering power hitter. Hoskins is not swift on the bases, a point of divergence from the Abreu comp.

Still, some analytical folks favor batting your best hitters high in the lineup so they get as many at-bats as possible. It makes sense and I would definitely make sure Rhys batted in the first inning of games (as long as he picks up where he left off).

Slotting him leadoff might seem a little wild, but it isn't a new idea. The Milwaukee Brewers batted Eric Thames leadoff 16 times late in the season. Thames swatted 31 homers, stole 4 bases, but walked 75 times with a .359 OBP.

So the profile is similar, but Thames doesn't get on base nearly as well as our man Rhys. For what it's worth, Thames only hit .210 with a .329 OBP from the leadoff position.

There is no record of Hoskins batting leadoff and why would there be? He's a power hitter. In 62 plate appearances leading off an inning last year, Hoskins drew 14 walks (vs. 12 Ks) for a healthy .387 OBP.

Our comparison is incomplete without mentioning that Milwaukee elevated Thames amid significant desperation. They simply did not have a decent leadoff hitter. The Phillies, on the other hand, have one of the best in 2B Cesar Hernandez.

Leading off the past two years, Hernandez contributed a steady and strong .372 OBP. One flaw from 2017: in 124 first-inning leadoff at-bats, (Cesar missed significant time with an injury), Hernandez hit just .216 with a .298 OBP.

In my opinion, hitting leadoff is about jumping the opponent from the first pitch and getting a lead on the board. The Phillies were not really strong in that area all those many years Jimmy Rollins led off, and they weren't very good at it last year.

Will Kapler shake things up?

What is Wrong with the Phillies' 1st Round Strategy?

Mickey Moniak

Sixto Sanchez was a scrawny 16-year-old batting practice pitcher at a Dominican Republic workout session when the Phillies snapped him up for $35,000.

The kid threw an easy 96 mph and somehow remained a undiscovered gem. These days, Sanchez is preparing to enter his age 19/20 season as one of the very best young arms in professional baseball.

These are the kind of wins the scouting team needs to deliver if a team is to climb into championship territory. The Phillies' player development team is producing these off-the-radar wins with regularity now.

Ironically, it's the high draft picks -- the safe zone, if you will -- where results are woefully lacking. Disclaimer: it is still early for these picks. That said, 2018 is a crucial year for these players I will return to momentarily.

First, let's return to the stunning scouting wins.

Odubel "Flipper" Herrera was a frenetic bundle of energy full of questions when the Phillies tabbed him with the 8th pick of the 2014 Rule 5 Draft. It was questionable whether Herrera could hit for power, harness his speed effectively, or even learn the strike zone. Heck, he didn't even have a permanent position, alternating between infield and outfield.

But Flipper could hit. Three years later, he owns a .288 MLB average, a $30.5 million contract and is one of the best Rule 5 picks in history.

At 5-foot-10, 180 pounds, Scott Kingery is not your typical power hitter. He was, however, a terrific college player at the University of Arizona when the Phils made him the 48nd pick of the 2015 MLB Draft.

Updated prospect lists have Kingery as the top second base prospect in all of baseball. His selection was a home run bigger than any of the 26 dingers Scott whacked in 2017.

Everyone expects that Herrera, Kingery and, ultimately, Sanchez, will play starring roles for the Phillies over the next decade.

Whether Cornelius Randolph, Mickey Moniak or Adam Haseley join them is about as unpredictable as the Trump West Wing.

And it shouldn't be since all three OFs were top 10 picks -- with Moniak going No. 1 in 2016.

These high first-round picks are must hits for any team. To this point, none of the three look particularly good. Only Haseley made the Baseball America top 100 list, slipping in at No. 100 after a lackluster debut.

That Moniak owns a .649 OPS after 169 minor league games is certainly concerning. Yes, he's 19. Yes, he has one full year as a professional. Good counterpoints.

These picks are much more frustrating when the suffering fan reviews those drafts and realizes the Phils could have SPs Walker Buehler (2015) and Forrest Whitley (2016) readying to front the ML rotation. Both are among the top pitching prospects in baseball.

Hindsight is a harsh judge, for sure. But if you want to win, you've got to draft well. And it starts with the premium picks. I have no research on this, but my gut favors drafting pitchers high just on a value basis.

Right now, the Phillies have four fine young starting OFs they have acquired via a variety of different means. Rhys Hoskins was a 5th round pick and Aaron Altherr a 9th rounder. Nick Williams came by way of trade. And, of course, Flipper in the Rule 5.

You can find outfielders. I'm not sure of the wisdom in taking three straight OFs in the top 10.

The Atlanta Braves have perhaps the best farm system in MLB and they've done it by drafting pitchers in the 1st round for six consecutive years.

The Phils draft third in this year's June draft.

I hope they get it right this time.

No, The Phillies Probably Aren't Signing Machado or Harper

Popular opinion in Philliesland these days has the squad holding another year of tryouts for the youngsters, keeping the best, and signing Manny Machado or Bryce Harper to a megadeal in the 2018 offseason.

Boom.

Only that probably isn't going to happen. I mean the first part is a given, but realistically, the Phils will likely have to aim lower in their return to big-time free agency.

I'll return to that momentarily. First, an explanation.

Yes, the Phils have the GDP of a small country's worth of cash to spend. What they don't have is any kind of winning atmosphere.

And it does matter. Let's face it, as long as starting pitchers two through five remain some mix of Eickhoff, Velasquez, Thompson, Pivetta, Eflin and Lively -- the squad is heading for another 90-loss season.

That would make it four straight. Of the 35 biggest contracts ever handed out in Major League Baseball, none has been signed by a team that lost 90 games even twice in a row.

I looked at every contract from Giancarlo Stanton's 13-year, $325 million deal to Carl Crawford's seven-year, $142 million pact.

Only twice has a team coming off a 90-loss season signed one of those 35 megadeals. Both of those teams had some variables not present with these Phillies.

Let's look at those two contracts:

* Alex Rodriguez signs a 10-year, $252 million deal with the Texas Rangers (2001). While the Rangers were coming off a 71-91 season, it was a bit of a fluke. They had won 95 games the previous year.

* Robinson Cano signs a 10-year, $240 million deal with the Seattle Mariners (2014). Seattle was also coming off a 71-91 record when they lavished cash on Cano. However, the Mariners had signed Felix Hernandez to MLB's 18th largest contract the previous winter (seven years, $175 million), so they had one of baseball's best pitchers in place.

That's it.

The money always gets all the attention. But lots of teams have lots of cash. A winning situation is obviously a big part of the equation as well.

And it's not just the Yankees and Red Sox signing these megadeals. Teams signing the top 35 contracts include the Giants, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, Twins, Tigers, Orioles, Reds, Nationals, Rockies, Rangers, Marlins and Mariners.

There are some reasons for hope. Repped by Dan Lozano, Machado is said to want to set a salary record. That makes him very similar to Rodriguez and Cano.

In fact, absent the Felix signing, the Phils sort of resemble the pre-Cano Mariners. That Seattle franchise had lost at least 95 three times in the previous six seasons.

As for Harper, he simply loves playing at Citizen's Bank Park. Harper has 12 career homers there, the most of any road park.

But most likely, the Phils will have to aim lower and absurdly overpay. Think of that potential deal as the Jayson Werth signing that enabled the Nationals to take that step forward and in later years sign Stephen Strasburg (No. 18 contract; seven years, $175 million) and Max Scherzer (No. 11; seven years, $210 million).

OFs Charlie Blackmon and A.J. Pollack are among those second-tier options that would greatly improve the ballclub.

What say you?