With the season winding down, attention will soon turn to the offseason for our favorite Phightins. And it will be an active Hot Stove for the Phils.
I doubt there's a team in MLB with more assets and flexibility to deal than the Phillies. They can literally go a dozen different ways and it will be interesting which paths they take.
Will they continue to be patient? Or will they push ahead toward contention? Whatever they want to do, they have the chips to do it.
Let's break it down:
40-Man Roster Decisions: Last year, the Phillies added four players to the 40-man roster; the year before they added three. This is typical of most teams.
The current state of the Phillies' farm system is atypical. They lack top-end superstar projectible talent, but otherwise, they are loaded with ML prospects. They will add as many as a dozen players to the 40-man roster this fall.
(By way of background, players must be added to the 40-man within five years if they were drafted or signed at 18 or before, or within four years in they were drafted or signed at 19 or later. It's more complicated than that, but those are the basics. Players in this category who are not protected this way are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft in December)
Players who must (and will) be added include: OF Nick Williams, C Andrew Knapp, SP Ben Lively, SP Ricardo Pinto, SP Elniery Garcia, OF Dylan Cozens, SP Alberto Tirado, SP Mark Appel and SP Nick Pivetta.
Then it gets tricky. Any team that selects a player in the Rule 5 draft must keep him in the Major Leagues all season. Will someone take a flier on slick-fielding, light-hitting SS Malquin Canelo? Or intriguing 2B Jesmuel Valentin? Or big-armed reliever Miguel Nunez? Or 20-year-old raw power OF Jose Pujols? Or OF defensive whiz Carlos Tocci?
The Phils want to keep all five, but can they spare the roster spots?
Seven veteran free agents will free up seven spots. Some other veterans like Darren Ruf, Phil Klein, Colton Murray and Patrick Schuster will certainly lose their spots.
But the Phils want to sign some free agents, too. Let's take a look at that group.
Free Agency: Unless players just flat out boycott the Fightins, GM Matt Klentak is going to sign him some free agents.
A safe bet is one starting pitcher and one middle-of-the-lineup hitter. Our SP starts with Jeremy Hellickson. Whether it ends there depends on the player.
The Phils will likely make him a qualifying offer and be happy to pay him $17 million for one year. Or will they work out a long-term deal? I think a three-year, $40 million deal makes some sense.
Full disclosure: I wasn't too excited about Helly when he arrived via trade, but he's been good. Was it just contract-year focus?
If Hellickson signs elsewhere, the Phils will take a draft pick. Other internal options include a one-year option on Charlie Morton for $9.5 million. I'm not sure they'll be too interested in that given Morton's inability to last beyond April this year.
Other SP possibilies are too numerous to name here and include free agency and trades.
Several bats have been connected to the Phils. Let's look at three names that would represent a couple different strategies:
1. Martin Prado. I think this is my preference. Prado checks all the boxes: leader, position flex and, unlike our current lineup, he gets on base. Despite playing nearly every game this season, Prado K'd just 64 times and has a .364 OBP. He would replace Andres Blanco as a Phils leader. Jon Heyman projects 3 years, $33 million.
2. Jose Bautista. This would represent a different direction and might indicate the execs think the Phils are closer to contention that I do. Bautista is nearly 36 and he only plays OF and he will play every day he's healthy. In short, he's a major personality who would take over the clubhouse and be the face of the team. Is that good? I am torn. Bautista is definitely an on-base machine when healthy. But would this be another Danny Tartabull signing? Heyman: 3 years, $60 million.
3. Ian Desmond. Similar to Prado in that he has position flex for IF or OF. Otherwise, I do not like this at all. Desmond's career average for 162 games is 41 walks against 157 Ks. Not what this team needs. Sure, he has 22 homers. But Freddy Galvis has 19 homers and just 6 errors. Desmond is a failed defender at SS who averaged 22 errors his last three years with the Nats and hit .244 in 2014-15. Pass. Heyman: 4 years, $64 million.
Trade Route: Let's talk about the Phillies' farm system for a moment. The Phillies' U.S.-based farm teams combined for a .595 winning percentage, the best of any franchise over the past eight years.
Simply put, the Phils' system is loaded with perhaps three dozen future Major Leaguers. In particular, teenage prospects with high ceilings. The Phils' rookie Gulf Coast League franchise went 43-15 this summer.
If there's such a thing as having too many prospects, the Phillies are close. That 40-man roster crunch eventually becomes an issue.
Secondly, the Phillies have some Major League trade chips. One, in particular, in C Cameron Rupp. Solid catching is in short supply across MLB, but the Phillies have one of the best in Rupp, a solid defender with 24 doubles and 15 homers.
Perhaps as important, he won't command big money until 2021. With Knapp and Jorge Alfaro, the Phils also have perhaps the best pair of catcher prospects in the game.
Thirdly, and this is big, the Phillies have just $24.2 million in salary commitments for 2017. Of course, contracts will be renewed for a slew of young players and those should add up to about $15 million or so.
If the Phils match their 2016 payroll of $88 million, that leaves close to $50 million to play with. What it means is the Phils are an attractive trade partner for fat contracts.
If, say, the Red Sox want to rid themselves of the balance of Pablo Sandoval's $95 million deal, they might look south. Klentak will ask for a frontline player to be included.
The Phillies' needs are obvious -- an ace starter and a couple All-Star caliber offensive players. Klentak's task is to find them, and he has every available tool with which to do so.
What would you do?
