Now that football is nearly over, thoughts turn to baseball and our Philadelphia Phillies.
Optimism is high with Hall of Fame manager Joe Girardi, new starting pitcher Zack Wheeler, and a second season in the Bryce Harper era.
Vegas is bullish, with Cesar's Sportsbook pegging the Phils with an 85.5 over/under this week. Draftkings puts their number at 84.5.
Everything I've read this week says take the Over -- that the team is obviously improved dramatically over the squad that won 81 a year ago.
I'm not sure this is the right way to assess it. A team's expected performance has less to do with how much they have improved and more to do with the quality of their opponents and how much they have improved.
It's all relative. Nearly every team improves on paper during an offseason. If not, the general manager won't be general managing for long.
I think the Phillies have some problematic issues. Let's start with their schedule.
1. The NL East. It's not unusual for a division to have a pair of teams projected to win 85-plus games. The really good divisions have three such teams.
Then there's the NL East. The Braves lead the way at 90.5, while the defending World Champion Nationals come in at 88.5. The Mets are third at 86.5.
The Phillies' schedule starts with 57 games against these three teams all projected to be better. Oh, and the Marlins are much improved as well, or so I read.
2. The Rotation. I do think Wheeler is a big upgrade, bigger than his pedestrian 3.96 ERA. And I do expect Aaron Nola to be much closer to 2018 Nola than the 2019 version.
Still, even if these two remain healthy, that leaves about 100 games to be started by a group of Jake Arietta, Nick Pivetta, Zach Eflin, Vince Velasquez, Cole Irvin and Enyel De Los Santos.
This group pitched significantly worse than league average in 2019. After pitching mostly well during the year, Eflin is presumed to be a solid starter now. But Velasquez actually gave up fewer hits per nine and had a better K-to-walk rate.
Not sure if that is a good or bad thing.
3. The Bullpen. I have no idea what the front office strategy is here. It appears to be "Screw it. We tried signing proven pen arms and it didn't work, so we're going with a big bunch of dudes and let's see what happens."
Hecter Neris (2.93 ERA, 28 saves) is the closer and a quality arm. That's it, folks.
The rest of the dudes fall into four categories:
The injured dudes: Seranthony Dominguez and Victor Arano had nice seasons in 2018, but spent most of 2019 injured. They could be good -- if healthy.
The lefty dudes: Adam Morgan, Cole Irvin, Ranger Suarez, Austin Davis, Francisco Liriano and Jose Alvarez are all here for your enjoyment. Some will still be here March 26.
The young dudes: JD Hammer, Adonis Medina, Edgar Garcia, Garrett Cleavinger, Mauricio Llovera, Connor Brogdon, Kyle Dohy, Tyler Gilbert, Spencer Howard, Damon Jones, Ramon Rosso, Addison Russ, Zach Warren and maybe even Sidd Finch will have a shot at winning pen jobs.
The old dudes: Drew Storen, Bud Norris, Robert Stock, Reggie McClain, Trevor Kelly and the aforementioned Liriano will also be in camp with chances.
This is going to be very competitive. Will it result in a good pen? Uh...
The Good Things
So my over/under must be about 75, right? Nope. I see plenty of good things with the team. Starting with:
1. The Manager. Gabe Kapler was an interesting experiment, but he seemed to devote too much time to finding "value in the margins." I think we lost sight of the big picture at times. Girardi is a home run hire.
2. Offense. I predicted 800 runs last year and the Phillies put up 774. The return of Andrew McCutchen and adding Didi Gregorious should put them well over 800 this year. They will get on base, hit for power top to bottom and score a lot.
3. JT Realmuto. The Phillies have one thing their division counterparts do not and that is a plus-plus advantage on offense and defense from the Catcher spot. Realmuto is the best two-way receiver in the game.
But perhaps the best thing the 2020 Phillies have going for them is the rebound factor. Outside of perhaps Scott Kingery (19 homers, 15 steals), not a single player on the roster bested their projected production.
In other words, Harper had a Harper-like season (35 homers, 114 RBI, 99 walks). He was good, as you would expect him to be, but he wasn't spectacular. Realmuto was similarly good (25 homers, .820 OPS), as were a few others.
The list of players who underperformed is long. Rhys Hoskins (.165 batting average after Aug. 1) heads the list. Gregorious (.208 after Aug. 1), Nola (2.37 ERA to 3.87), Arietta (4.64 ERA), Pivetta (5.38 ERA) and Velasquez (4.91 ERA) are among the others who nosedived.
There are good possibilities for bounceback performances from this group. Considering all the disappointing numbers, it is remarkable that the 2019 Phillies managed 81 wins.
Despite these good things, and they are good signs for the future, I remain troubled by the pitching -- both starting and relieving. Therefore, I am settling at 83-79, a modest improvement.
