'It Takes Political Courage'

As of Tuesday morning, I had never heard of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

On Wednesday morning, I saw her on Morning Joe, CBS and CNN, and she was the subject of every other tweet. And why not? Ocasio-Cortez is photogenic, she’s young, she’s Hispanic and she just knocked off the fourth-ranking member in House Democratic Party leadership. 

She has a smile that makes you believe America is going to win every contest it enters. She spent $207,000, all from individual contributions, while Rep. Joe Crowley spent $3.4 million.

This is like the Harrisburg Heat beating Brazil on the pitch.

So why am I not sure whether to congratulate Ocasio-Cortez, or feel sorry for her?

She has a great story: the place she tended bar just one year ago still has her picture on its home page. Ocasio-Cortez also has the positions one would only adopt if they felt free of any expectations of victory.

Medicare for all, free tuition, guaranteed work and housing. In other words, unabashed Socialism. This is big-time stuff.

"I just felt like at this point we have nothing to lose,” Ocasio-Cortez said in an interview. “We have nothing to lose! And even in a race that just seemed impossible, as it was even three months ago, even on long odds, that doesn't mean we shouldn't try.”

It’s these positions that are drawing attention today. Most of them are untenable in the current climate. It’s going to make life very difficult for Ocasio-Cortez and it’s going to put her in the crosshairs of some very nasty people.

Everyone will be coming at her now – from establishment Democrats to lobbyists to opposition Republicans. Some will want to befriend her, some will want to change her, and all will want to use her.

My coffeemaker hadn’t even turned off this morning before Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was already rushing to label Ocasio-Cortez.

“It was a stunning development. The energy in the Democratic Party is self-avowed socialists, open borders," McConnell said. "I think the Democrats are going hard left. If you look at the presidential primary, voters in 2020, it seems to me that like 35 or 40 percent were self-identified socialists so I think it's a general election problem for them in a number of places ... and a real drag on the party in terms of appealing to American voters who I don't think want us to turn into a European Socialist country.”

Ocasio-Cortez Is 28 years old. Twenty-eight years ago, McConnell was on his way to his second U.S. Senate election victory. How is this a fair fight?

Heartwarming Victory

There is definitely something heartwarming in her success. It perfectly captured that moment where all of the bad things I am referencing were swept aside. The purity of a 28-year-old Latina bartender knocking off a 10-term congressman is everything promised in Thomas Jefferson’s vision of America.

Now we wake up to wonder if the rug will be yanked out from beneath us. After all, those demons of democracy were just swept aside, not eliminated.

Ocasio-Cortez is the only one who can deliver on the hope and promise of her place in history. Is she up for this? And are we wrong to expect too much?

"It doesn't take 100 years to do this," she says in her brilliant campaign ad. "It takes political courage."

Indeed it does.

Frankly, maybe I’m afraid to trust her. Twenty-five years ago, I watched “The War Room” and was ready to change the world with Bill Clinton. I can’t remember when and where he disappointed me and maybe he really didn’t (although DOMA was pretty bad).

Maybe it’s just a realization that even good people face wretched ethical choices while trying to accomplish anything in politics. It’s an arena where seemingly everyone has enough money to buy votes and opinions. 

Congress is a place where vision and hope are cruelly stamped out and replaced by cynical survival.

Yesterday, I posted a wonderful line that I keep reading from author Robert Caro describing the late progressive Sen. Paul Douglas’ fight for civil rights: “the hero who had charged up the beach when he was too old to charge up a beach.”

It sounds like Ocasio-Cortez, with all her youthful enthusiasm, wants to be on that beach.

Maybe that should be good enough for now.

The Day LBJ Destroyed Paul Douglas

As I continue to work through Robert Caro’s great works of history, a passage I read yesterday is sticking with me.

I am on Caro’s third of five books chronicling the life and the many contradictions of Lyndon Baines Johnson. Ever the pragmatist, LBJ fought against Civil Rights alongside the racist Southern Coalition for many years. Then, suddenly he was for Civil Rights, and he was for it in a way that changed history.

But the passage I reference came long before that metamorphosis was to take place. And LBJ’s nemesis in this story is Sen. Paul Douglas, D-Ill., liberal lion and decidedly not a pragmatist. It was the summer of 1956 and Douglas was trying once again to get Civil Right legislation past the Southern bloc. Or at least get it to the floor for a vote.

The details are not important, but LBJ, then majority leader, was far too crafty for Douglas. Using a variety of parliamentary procedures and arcane Senate rules, Johnson blocked Douglas at every turn. That led to a showdown that left Douglas meekly vanquished.

Although victorious, LBJ was not satisfied. With the Senate set to take a voice vote on Douglas' futile motion, Johnson suddenly objected and asked for a roll call vote. The effect was to publicly and forcefully humiliate Douglas.

I’ll let Caro pick it up from here:

What I have been thinking is how this peak despondency resembles how many feel in our country at this moment. Many people who think America is at a troubling crossroads.

Paul Douglas carried on, and found salvation out of his greatest despair. The Civil Rights Act of 1957 was followed by the Civil Rights Rights Act of 1960, the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

Sitting in his office in July 1956, Sen. Douglas could not have imagined what the next decade would bring. 

He certainly never could have dreamed that LBJ would be the driving force behind those bills.

Phils-Osophy: The All-Star Edition

Prediction: the Phightins break out of the solo rep column and send two players to Nationals Park for the All-Star Game next month.

Aaron Nola and Odubel Herrera could not be more different and the uniqueness of their individual stories is part of what makes baseball the greatest game.

Let's start with Nola, who is virtually an automatic selection. In fact, were this game being played anyplace other than Max Scherzer's backyard, Aaron would be a strong candidate to start for the National League.

No. 27 has been that good: 8-2 with a 2.55 ERA and ranks in the top 10 in virtually every category. The most important and impressive stat is his 4.2 WAR, second among NL pitchers.

When the Phillies selected Nola in 2014, scouts considered him a polished pitcher and perhaps the safest pick in that draft. His ceiling was low, but his floor was high, the thinking went.

How the crafty Cajun became so much more than that is a remarkable confirmation of pitching as an artform.

Start with Nola's velocity. Twenty-four-year-old pitchers don't suddenly add fast to their fastball, but that's exactly what Aaron did in 2017. Nola finished 2016 with a fastball average of 89.8 MPH. When he started 2017, that number rose to 92.4 MPH.

The numbers have continued to rise across the board. In Nola's first full month as a Phillie -- August 2015 -- he averaged: 90.8, fastball; 76.8, breaking; 82.5, offspeed. This month, those numbers are: 93.2, 79.1 and 85.5.

The crafty Aaron Nola, who came into the league with a host of fluttering and diving secondary pitches, is now a borderline hard thrower. When he wants to be, that is. When he needs it, Aaron can fire a 96 MPH four-seamer.

That's not all. His four pitches have evolved. In 2016, Nola threw offspeed pitches 8 percent of the time. In May 2018, 26 percent of his pitches were of the offspeed variety.

These numbers speak to the stunning progression of Nola's change-up. When he came into the league, Nola had two plus pitches, the four-seamer and the curveball, and a show-me change.

Again, it is somewhat rare for pitchers to develop a plus pitch at the major-league level. Nola's change-up comes with the perfect speed differential and it has late movement.

In short, peak Aaron Nola is in complete command of three plus pitches he can locate in any quadrant of the strike zone. Pitching is an artform and we are watching a gifted artist at work.

The Phillies should give Nola a blank five-year contract this offseason and tell him to fill in the number. He's that good and that important.

Let's talk about Odubel Herrera -- the Human Rain Delay II, the Flipper, He Who Drops His Bat and Stares at Good Pitches to Hit.

Despite all his infuriatingly frustrating quirky habits, the man can hit. Whereas the perpetually placid Nola was a top 10 draft pick and star from day one, Odoobie was decidedly not.

We all know the story: Rule 5 draft pick, big star, bat flipper, big contract, conduit for Mike Schmidt idiocy.

As a hitter, Odubel is inconsistently consistent. His OPS over his first three years ranged narrowly from .762 to .781. Even this year, the maddeningly wild swings in production continue within Herrera's breakout campaign (.869).

From April 5 to May 17, Odubel hit .381 with a 1.041 OPS. From May 18 to June 12, he hit .161 with a .422 OPS. And now he is magma hot again, hitting .472 with a 1.514 OPS his last eight games.

Herrera certainly felt comfortable at Nationals Park last night, ripping four hits and his fifth homer in five games.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Nola spin eight shutout innings this afternoon.

Both deserve to return to the park and represent the National League on July 18.

The Next 15 Games Could Decide The Phils Season

Does it feel like the Phillies are playing one tough game after another these days?

It does and they are.

On May 17, the squad set sail for St. Louis (it was REALLY raining) and a four-game set at Busch. Since then, it's been a struggle as Cap'n Kap's team returned home for Atlanta and Toronto, then a rough 10-game swing through Los Angeles, San Francisco and the Cubs on the way back home.

After facing the NL Central-leading Brewers and the always offensive Rockies, the team is back on the road visiting the Brewers.

The grind is real and there is no letup in this schedule, In fact, it is about to get harder. The next 15 games are against all winning teams a combined 181 games over .500.

The brutal run concludes with seven games against the Nationals sandwiched around a three-game visit by the Yankees.

It's always sunny in the Phillies' clubhouse with the buoyant Kap at the wheel. But let's see how he handles this stretch. The squad has had some injuries, some bullpen struggles, and young players in over their heads it seems. Jake Arietta even got a few rips in on the Cap'n during the miserable West Coast trip.

None of that matters now. The Phils have to win a few of these games. It's put up or shut up time. Their backs are against the wall. They have to give 110 percent. And a several other cliches, too.

But if they can win, say, seven games or so, they will be in good shape. The schedule really opens up after that July 1 game vs. Washington.

The ensuing 23 games are against teams a combined 240 games UNDER .500. The lone winning team in that stretch is the Dodgers, who, when the Phils are decent, don't normally fare well on their annual trip east.

A two-game trip to Fenway is followed by an August schedule featuring 12 games against the Marlins, Mets and Padres.

In fact, the Phillies don't play back-to-back series against winning teams until the calendar turns to September and they back up the Nationals with the Cubbies.

So don't let these 13-2 losses get you down.

It really is a long season.

Phillies Report: Desperately Seeking Offense

I could not have been more wrong in my analysis of the 2018 Phillies. This might not be a bad thing in the larger landscape.

My ego can take it, plus I have experience to draw upon. I had the 2017 Eagles in last place.

To recap, I saw Cap'n Kap's group running a solid lineup out nightly to try and outscore mediocre-to-poor pitching on non-Nola nights. To be fair, that was before we signed Jake the Snake.

But I wasn't the only one. One notable scribe explained that it would take at least three young starters making Justify like strides for the squad to be competitive.

That's exactly what's happened, as Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez and Zach Eflin have been pretty good overall.

The Phils have pitched it. With the bats in hand, however, they've produced about as many big hits as solo Art Garfunkel.

Every single hitter in Sunday's lineup was well below his career batting average, with two exceptions. Scott Kingery is a rookie, and Odubal Herrera has roughly equaled his career .289 batting average.

Unfortunately, since peaking at .361 on May 17, the Human Rain Delay II is hitting .169 with a .204 on-base percentage.

It is too soon to make any dramatic conclusions, of course, but what is known is that new hitting coach John Mallee wants his guys taking pitches and having long at-bats. Whether this is sapping aggressiveness or not is a storyline to watch as the summer drags into the dog days.

As it pertains to the future Phils, the balance of power transfer from hitters to pitchers is a good thing. To note the obvious, when you've been a last-place team for five years, it's good to see anyone develop.

To put a finer point on it, it's harder to find and develop pitching than hitting. Finally, pitching is the more important ingredient. After all, despite the Phils horrific hitting, they maintain a winning record.

I expected us to draft a RHP Brady Singer or LHP Matthew Liberatore, and sign a stud starter like LHP Dallas Keuchel.

Suffice to say, the former didn't happen and the latter is looking less and less a possibility.

The Phils drafted 3B Alec Bohm, probably a better value than any pitcher available. But the bonanza lies in free agency. Either OF Bryce Harper or SS Manny Machado would be a wonderful fit and fill several roles (power, on-base ability, lineup fear) of desperate need.

While the Phils are tough to watch at the moment, unless you enjoy strikeouts and stranded runners, the long-term fit between need and availability is very good.

Of course, I already sorta suggested a hard pass from both Machado and Harper.

That can only mean it's looking pretty good one will be wearing Philstripes next spring.