It's Time To #BeBold, Kap

In a subplot on my favorite episode of my favorite show, Jerry Seinfeld is frequently the recipient of good news and bad news simultaneously.

"I have two friends, you were up, he was down," Jerry tells Elaine at one point. "Now he's up and you're down. You see how it all evens out for me?"

"You're even Steven!" Kramer says triumphantly.

And so it is for fans of the Nicks and the 2018 Phillies.

As the calendar flipped to June, P Nick Pivetta owned a fairly sparkling 3.26 ERA. At the other end of the dugout sat OF Nick Williams, who carried a paltry .215 batting average as late as June 12.

The ensuing six weeks brought the ups and downs that accompany the life of a pro baseball player on the fringes.

The steadily hot Williams batted his way to a .304 average with seven homers since June 12. He's drawn 14 walks the past six weeks, a super-promising development for a guy sentenced to repeat Triple A after earning just 19 walks the entire 2016 season (against 136 Ks)

Owner of the sweetest swing on the squad (in this writer's opinion), the arrow is pointed decidedly up for the affable Texan.

The best thing we can say about Nicholas Johncarlo Pivetta the past two months is he continues to overpower hitters. And that may provide some keys to his future.

Pivetta K'd 31 in 21 July innings. The flip side is a 6.84 ERA in 10 starts since June 1. A pitch sequence in the bottom of the third inning Friday night highlights the problems this Nick is having.

With a runner on second base and two outs, Pivetta overpowered the dangerous Scooter Gennett to get ahead 0-2. Gennett was very late on a 97-MPH four-seamer and managed a weak foul. Alfaro/Pivetta next opted for an 81-MPH slider that, well, didn't slide all that much:

Pitch No. 4 was slammed to center to plate a run.

If you're thinking that was an anomaly, it wasn't. The next inning found Pivetta facing runners at second and third with no outs. But he painted the corner with two hard four-seamers to get ahead of Mason Williams 1-2. The bottom of the order followed, offering a decent chance to escape the inning,

And then:

Williams clubbed an 85-MPH slider over the right-field wall, a game-deciding blow as it turned out.

Pivetta's problems are pretty clear by now -- the secondary pitches are not sharp enough. The good news is the fastball is an explosive weapon. But opponents are seemingly trying to survive vs. the hard stuff until they can get a hittable slider.

Regardless of what the future holds for Pivetta, he cannot remain in the rotation of a team in first place by 2.5 games on July 28.

I think he has strong closer potential. Most pitchers gain 3-5 MPH after moving to the pen and going all-out for 15-20 pitches. Nick could bring 100-degree heat, while paring down his mediocre secondary stuff to one pitch -- be it a slider, curve or something else.

The Phillies have a long history of rookie starting pitchers making a late-season impact, from Marty Bystrom's 5-0 stretch run during that 1980 dream season to Kyle Kendrick going 10-4, 3.87 in 2007.

We've seen a little of Enyel De Los Santos and Ranger Suarez and both won their debuts. Cole Irvin (9-3, 2.93) is another Lehigh Valley pitcher worthy of an opportunity.

It's time for Cap'n Kap to pick one and make it a permanent change.

Phillies Target Ranger

On May 12, 2006, I sat in a bar watching a heralded 22-year-old southpaw make his Phillies debut in Cincinnati.

Cole Hamels was known for two things to that point in his baseball life: breaking his hand in a Clearwater beer brawl, and, a bit over a year later, dazzling Triple A with an 0.39 ERA in 23 innings.

Then he flew to Cincinnati and surrendered one hit to the Reds over five innings. He was not dazzling, however, allowing five walks.

About all I remember was thinking that Hamels just looked like a Major League star. Of course, he was a first round pick and was a highly rated prospect for three years prior to Cincinnati.

On Thursday, another 22-year-old lefty will make his Phillies' debut in Cincinnati. While perhaps not as heralded, Ranger Suarez shares some parallels with Hamels.

Cole made three AAA starts and allowed one run. Suarez has made three AAA starts and allowed one run (0.57 ERA).

Both rocketed to the top rung after dominating at lower levels -- Suarez with a 2.76 ERA in 12 starts at hitter-friendly Reading.

I don't know if this Suarez fellow can match Hamels' career. For sure, the Carora, Venezuala native kind of sneaked up on us. Signed in 2012, Suarez first caught attention last year and is the No. 9 Phillies' prospect at MLB Pipeline.

A couple interesting factoids, one you surely heard about and one you likely didn't:

* Suarez will be the first left-handed starter for the big Phils in 267 games. I grew up watching Lefty Carlton dominate with the slider. Terry Muholland threw the first no-hitter I've ever seen. And, of course, Hamels went on to be a World Series MVP.

This has been a long portside dry spell and it will be good to see a lefty toe it up again, even for just one day.

* Suarez will be the first player named "Ranger" to ever appear in a Major League game. Baseball Reference tells me the forgettable Rudolph Ranger appeared in 35 games for Albuquerque in 1961. Alas, that Ranger, a first baseman, was not very good (.215 batting average).

So you might say Suarez will be the lone Ranger. If he doesn't choose either the "William Tell Overture" or "South Bound Suarez" as his music, I will be disappointed.

Trade Wars Are Easy To Win

In a transaction that generated a few ripples, the Houston Astros demoted closer Ken Giles to Triple A Fresno Wednesday.

Apparently, Giles, owner of a 4.99 ERA, offered some R-rated feedback to manager A.J. Hinch as he departed his relief outing Tuesday. He entered with Houston holding a 4-0 lead and is the primary reason they would lose 6-5 two innings later.

The outing and the demotion are just the latest rocks in what has been a difficult road for Giles. Fans are turning on him. A headline on a Houston-area column: Like it or not, you haven't seen the last of Ken Giles.

Earlier this year, he blew a save against the Yankees and did this:

Giles, of course, is only in Houston because Phillies GM Matt Klentak traded him there. That trade is one of several player swaps that are turning into huge wins for the Philly side. The trade route is the primary reason the Phils sit in first place at a stunning 53-40.

Let's break them down:

1. Giles for Vince Velasquez (Dec. 10, 2015):  This deal also sent pitchers Brett Oberholtzer, Mark Appel and Thomas Eshelman to Philly. But the first two are out of the organization, and Eshelman owns a 6.32 ERA in Triple A.

This is a Giles-for-Velasquez deal. And maybe Houston is satisfied from their end. Giles did save 34 games and pitch to a 2.30 ERA last year as the closer on a World Series winner.

But his other two seasons were and are clunkers, and the entire relationship feels like it is nearing the end. I would not be surprised to see Kenny shipped elsewhere soon.

As for Velasquez, the Phils endured their own difficulties with the mercurial righty -- mostly with health and emotions. I don't believe he's ever punched himself or cursed out a manager.

I wrote earlier this year about Bad Vinnie fading from view. While not quite a reliable stud yet, things are trending that way with VV. Toss out a 10-run stinker vs Milwaukee June 8, and Velasquez has a 2.52 ERA over his last 11 starts (60.2 innings).

I will always prioritize starting pitchers who throw 180 innings over relievers who throw 65. The Phillies control Vinnie until 2022. He is a solid, young asset and this deal is a solid W for Klentak.

2. Cole Hamels and Jake Diekman for a bunch of Rangers (July 24, 2015): Ruben Amaro's last-act, lame-duck deal is looking better for the Phillies with each week.

The Phils netted OF Nick Williams, C Jorge Alfaro and Ps Jake Thompson, Jerad Eickhoff, Alec Asher and Matt Harrison.

To be sure, the Harrison addition was a concession to Texas, as the Phils picked up the $33 million on his contract.

The Phils gained three controllable pieces in this deal. Williams (.273, 23 HRs, 89 RBIs) looks to be the RF of the future, while Jerad Eickhoff (3.87 ERA in 65 starts) will at some point reclaim his rotation spot.

But Alfaro is the guy the $33 million bought, in my opinion. A hitter with immense power, Alfaro leads the National League with 17 runners cut down stealing. Overall, there's a sense that he is about one-quarter of the player he will be in five years.

This three-for-one deal sent the Phils' rebuild surging forward. Ironically, Texas is now looking to trade Hamels in a similar, albeit much less return, deal.

3. The One-Offs. One particular trade area the Phillies, under both Amaro and Klentak, are thriving, it is the short sale. The veteran who can help another team down the stretch, or plug a hole until a prospect is ready, swapped for a mid-level prospect.

While the players going out rarely have much left to give, the return has been enormous.

For P Roberto Hernandez, the Phillies got P Victor Arano (33 games, 2.38 ERA). For SS Jimmy Rollins, they got P Zach Eflin (7-2, 3.15). For P Jonathan Papelbon, they got P Nick Pivetta (4.58 ERA, 113 Ks in 96 innings).

And most recently, Klentak imported P Enyel De Los Santos (9-3, 1.89 ERA in Triple A) for SS Freddy Galvis.

****

It is a difficult thing to be so consistently successful on the trade front. It is even more remarkable for this front office, given how disappointing their top 10 draft picks have been the past four years.

Whether it's luck, or just shrewd advanced talent evaluation, the Phillies' positive trade balance to date is worth remembering as they consider sending prospects out for veteran help.

Minor Thoughts: What the Hell is Happening at Reading?

Among the Phillies' nine minor league teams, none is a more fascinating stop than Reading.

For many of the best prospects, it begins the final stage of their minor league education. Many of them go to Triple A for just a short period. I've seen some players get called to the big club straight from Reading.

The Reading Fightin' Phils celebrated their 50th year in 2017, and is tied for the longest affiliation in Major League Baseball.

But Reading is fascinating for another reason as well. It delivers offense that skews performance about as much as Coors Field.

Many a Phils' hitter has slugged his way to Reading fame. The trick becomes figuring out who is really a prospect and who isn't.

Darren Ruf (38 homers in 2012) wasn't, but Ryan Howard (37 homers in 2004) was. Phillies fans were enamored with Matt Rizzotti (40 homers in 2010-11), but he wasn't.

Dylan Cozens (40 homers) and Rhys Hoskins (38) thrilled Reading fans with their long ball duel throughout the summer of 2016. Hoskins is on his way to becoming a star in Philadelphia, but Cozens probably isn't going to be around long.

You get the idea. If you're going to spend any time analyzing the Phillies' minor hitters, you learn to read the home/road splits when they move to Reading.

In 2016, for example, Cozens hit 29 of his 40 dingers at home.

That brings us to the present campaign, where a pair of former third-round picks -- who are not considered prospects -- are having fine seasons.

2012 draftee Zach Green (.297, 16 homers, 52 RBIs) and 2013 pick Jan Hernandez (.296, 10, 43) are anchoring the middle of the R-Phils lineup. They are joined by powerful catcher Deivi Grullon (.287, 12, 40)

Here's where it gets odd. None of the three players is showing any homefield advantage. In fact, Green has 14 doubles and 11 homers on the road, and just 9 doubles and 5 homers at home.

Hernandez's homers are split evenly, but he's hitting .328 away and just .267 at home. Similarly, Grullon is a .301 hitter on the road and .273 at home.

This is very unusual for Reading and I am not sure what to make of it. I have yet to see any of the three generating any prospect buzz, so we will have to see. But Green, 24, Hernandez, 23, and Grullon, 22, are all young enough to play their way into future plans.

On the flip side, Reading can be a punishing stop for pitchers. And this year is no different. I find the Reading hurdle to be a useful mental challenge for pitchers, many of whom are facing adversity for the first time.

JoJo Romero is fighting that adversity and generally doing well. After a rough start, his ERA sits at 4.06 after 17 starts. The home/road splits are predictably glaring: 5.15/3.21.

Lefty starter Ranger Suarez solved the Reading riddle with ease. After starting the season with a home bomb (3 innings, 9 hits, 7 runs), Suarez made four more home starts, giving up 7 runs in 26 innings, while pitching to a 1.76 ERA in seven road outings.

Just 22, Ranger has moved on to Triple A.

Meanwhile, a pair of young sluggers are new to Reading and already jacking bombs out of First Energy Stadium.

Darick Hall, 9 homers in 34 games, and Austin Listi, 4 homers in 20 games, will have to show they can hit on the road as well.

If not, they will always have Reading.

Es Hora De Conseguir Machado

I am all in on a deal to bring Manny Machado to Citizen's Bank Ballpark.

To this point, I've been lukewarm on the trade route, generally favoring taking our shot at Manny in free agency. But things, as they say, have changed considerably.

I heard a proposal today that makes sense and a deal I think Matt Klentak should make: SS JP Crawford, Triple A SP Enyel De Los Santos and a lower-level minor leaguer or two go south.

I am not sure if Baltimore can beat this deal or not, but it is fair. Crawford has been a top prospect for several years now, and still projects as an above-average SS at worst. De los Santos is starting the Triple A All-Star game and sports a 1.81 ERA in 15 starts.

My pro-trade stance came about for a couple reasons:

1. We get a head start. I've heard several fans say we should just wait until free agency and sign Machado without giving anything up. Sounds so simple.

Yet, it isn't. The only thing we know for sure is Manny isn't going to Baltimore. Otherwise, if he makes it to free agency, it's a free agent free-for-all. And the Phillies' money isn't any greener than the Yankees', Cubs' or Dodgers' cash.

On the other hand, if we get Machado in the house for even three or four months, I think it makes a difference. He gets comfortable, makes new friends, likes the area and enjoys playing baseball again. Most importantly, the difference between losing every night before a comatose crowd and winning in front of high-energy Philly fans makes an impression.

The Phils are going to meet the market price. Giving Manny a taste of what it's like to play here might be the difference.

2. We can make the playoffs. This is the clincher. We need Machado now, so there's a price to pay for that need. I would not have believed the postseason was a viable goal at the start of the season, or even three weeks ago.

But the Phils tore through their brutal 15-game stretch at 10-5. If the season ended today, they would be a wild card. I previously wrote about the Phils' relatively soft second half, and my expectation they can win 45 of 80 games. So far, they're 2-0.

They won 45 of the first 82. All these numbers mean they are realistically moving into the 88-90-win neighborhood.

I believe that two-and-a-half months of Manny Machado are worth 3 wins minimum -- or enough to lock down that playoff spot. This is not just a case of targeted player being an upgrade. This is a player who is an absolutely perfect fit for what this team needs.

Cap'n Kap's squad would go from a SS with a .607 OPS to one with a .937.

And in case you're wondering, August is Manny's best month for batting average (.310), homers (33) and RBIs (102).

But he owns a .174 average in seven postseason games. The Phillies haven't seen a postseason since 2011.

Maybe player and team can come together and repair both of those numbers.