If there was a stat created and assigned to hitters fooled so badly they swing and miss the ball by a foot or more, it might be known as a "fool swing."
This generally happens when hitters are guessing fastball, or think they see a fastball, and level up to meet it in the zone. It also happens to hitters who have lost some reaction time and need to start their swing earlier in order to meet a good fastball.
Trea Turner most certainly leads the Phillies in fool swings. It's a troubling trend for a player who turned 30 years old June 30 and has 10 years and $272.7 million remaining.
Turner is having a terrible first year in Philly pinstripes. But any tendency toward panic is somewhat muted by the Nick Castellanos experience. One year after signing a big contract and flopping, Casty is an All Star.
There is some general confidence among fans and media that Turner will similarly rebound. I am not so sure.
For starters, Castellanos was hit on the wrist May 5 last year, possibly explaining his hitting difficulties. Turner appears fully healthy.
Then there's the strikeouts. Turner's K percentage is trending in a very bad direction: 13.9% in 2020 to 17% to 18.5% to 23.8% this year. Further evidence that Trea is being overwhelmed by the fastball and fooled by the low-and-away breaking pitches.
Power hitters who can't meet a good fastball sometimes go sideways very quickly.
I grew up watching Dale Murphy mash his way to back-to-back MVPs. Then suddenly, at age 32, the magic evaporated. Murph could still hit one out every so often, but good fastballs gave him trouble and he became an average player overnight.
He hit .295 with 44 homers at age 31, then fell off to 24 homers and a .226 batting average a year later.
I don't know enough about hitting to know how to fix Trea. I do know the speed is still really good (21-21 in steals) and I do know that 10 home runs is not a good return on a 24% K rate.
I sorta think he needs a swing change. Perhaps flipping the launch angle craze in favor of a put-the-ball-in-play swing. Something shorter and level that puts more balls in play and takes advantage of the speed.
Trea hit 49 homers in 2021-22 and perhaps he sees himself as a power hitter. At times he certainly looks like a hitter trying to hit a $300 million-worthy, upper-deck blast with every pitch.
Maybe it's big-contract stress. Maybe I'm overreacting. Thirty years old is still pretty young to be losing reaction time.
But I am officially worried.
