Don't Despair, Phils' Phaithful

The Phillies seem to be fading from contention, exposed as a pretender not quite good enough to play at a postseason level.

That can be one of the most painful realizations for fans riding that exhilarating journey of unexpected contention. There is certainly a lot of frustration with the Phils about deals not made, players not benched and, ultimately, wins on paper not won on the field.

It seems like a good time for a time out to regain our perspective on just how good this franchise is right now. In fact, the best part of the season is yet to come.

Once free agency kicks off in November, all eyes are going to be pointed at Philadelphia. While the Braves appear to be a fearsome force stocked with young stars and a loaded farm system, they do not and will not match the Phillies' budget.

With history and informed projections as our guide, it's fair to assume the Phillies will outspend Atlanta by 20-25 percent.

So there's that.

But there's more. The best way to field a consistently competitive team is to through strong player development. And it gets harder once you start winning and signing free agents.

The Phillies are winning with about 15 players who represent their young core -- from Victor Arano in the bullpen to Aaron Nola, Cy Young candidate.

It would be easy to assume they stripped the cupboard bare -- and midway through the season it appeared that way. Many of their remaining prospects were struggling.

Since then, a couple of very promising trends developed down on the farm:

* The Ones -- From 2015-17, the Phillies drafted three consecutive OFs in the top 10. And as June dawned, all three were looking like poor choices. In some cases, very poor.

But things are looking up for Cornelius Randolph, Mickey Moniak and Adam Haseley.

Since July 1, Randolph is hitting .323 with 20 walks vs. 27 Ks for Reading. That includes a .402 on-base and a .449 slugging. Having just turned 21, Randolph might be back on track.

Since July 7, Moniak is hitting .293/.348/.482 for high-A Clearwater. Mickey has 15 walks vs. 25 Ks, a dramatic improvement in strike-zone management. The power is finally appearing, with 15 doubles, 2 triples and 4 homers. A young 20, the 2016 No. 1 overall pick is emerging a bit.

Since July 4, Haseley is hitting .325/.403/.516. That includes his final five games at Clearwater and the rest in Reading. Very strong across the board, with 8 homers, and 17 walks to 21 Ks. At 22, Haseley stands a good chance of making his Major League debut sometime next season.

Obviously, we need to see more, but what looked to be a downright depressing run of wasted top 10 picks looks a whole lot better today.

* A New Stud -- There is a young man just 17 years old who is destroying Gulf Coast League pitching. And teen phenom Luis Garcia was signed as a strong-glove, light-bat shortstop.

Instead, Garcia is fast becoming the Phils' most intriguing prospect. Through 43 games, he's hitting .369/.433/.488. For a 17-year-old player, these are insane numbers. With 15 walks and 21 Ks, Garcia shows remarkable strike-zone judgment.

The Phillies' Sal Agostinelli appears to have done it again. The international scouting director has an incredible eye for talent. Garcia, who is shooting up prospect lists, was acquired for a $2.5 million signing bonus in 2017.

All of this adds up to the No. 9 farm system on former GM Jim Bowden's list last week. That is just one opinion, but it is a strong endorsement of the organization's player-development process.

The Phillies are not just trying to win today, or next season. A strong organization top to bottom that wins for generations (think Cardinals) is what every fan base craves.

While it remains to be seen whether these Phillies can achieve that lofty status, their immediate future looks to be incredibly bright.

And that should make these tough losses on the field a little easier to stomach.

Roster Review 21-30: What Kind Of Person Are You?

We continue our breakdown of the roster 40-to-1 with the 20s. Here we see a lot of prospects on the way up, along with a few veterans clinging to their big-league lives.

Again, my ranking is based equal parts on the season performance and the player's expected fit on future Phillies' squads.

Enjoy.

30. Austin Davis, RP -- Really came out of nowhere, as relievers are wont to do. Kaptain Gabe has taken to pitching Davis indiscriminately, at times for two innings. It has yielded far more good than bad.

Davis has pitched much better than his 4.13 ERA. His fielding independent pitching mark is a fine 2.61. He's allowed one home run, and is striking out 10.5 batters per nine.

More importantly, Davis has a confident coolness about him. Could stick as a key member of the pen.

29. Andrew Knapp, C -- Former second-round pick. Switch-hitter. Highly respected. Scuffling offensively and defensively. Owner of the season's most dramatic hit.

On July 1, Knapp hit a walk-off homer in the bottom of the 13th inning vs. the Nats. The Phils were going to send a position player out to pitch the 14th, so the dinger likely turned an L into a W.

But the arrival of Wilson Ramos sent Knapp to Triple A. Phils might seek a catching upgrade, squeezing out Knapp.

28. Adam Morgan, RP -- Continues to have Kap's trust; Continues to post shaky numbers. Morgan was thought to have found a home in the bullpen after a sterling second-half 2017. But consistency has eluded him in 2018.

He is currently enjoying his best stretch, a 2.70 ERA since June 25. His FIP mark is 3.98, a career best, but hardly an asset. Might be eclipsed by one of the intriguing lefty relievers in the system, such as Kyle Dohy or Tyler Gilbert.

27. Roman Quinn, OF -- These are heady days for the mercurial Quinn. Although it seems Roman has teased us with his game-wrecking potential since the John Felske era, he is actually just 25.

Quinn is in his seventh season, his seventh straight season marred by a serious injury. We are well past the time he needs to prove he can stay healthy. His electric speed is giving him a chance to help a team make a playoff run. He needs to take advantage of it.

26. Aaron Altherr, OF -- If this is the bubble OF region of our list, then it makes sense to put Altherr and Quinn together. No player disappointed more in 2018 than Aaron, IMO.

After a strong 2017 that included 19 homers, 24 doubles, an .856 OPS and a 2.2 WAR -- all in two-thirds of a season -- Altherr seemed poised for a butt-kicking age 27 year. Inexplicably, it never got off the ground. AA was finally sent to AAA July 23, where he is not doing much better.

Not sure what happened here. But a 6-foot-5 frame gives pitchers a lot of room to find a strike-zone weakness. Maybe Altherr was never as good as he was good, nor as bad as he was bad. Can play all over the OF and likely to remain as OF depth.

25. Hector Neris, RP -- Et tu, Hector? Yes, even Hector went south this season as the surging Phillies seemed to field as many disappointments as surprises.

After three solid-to-strong seasons leading the bullpen, Neris faltered early and frequently in 2018. He was finally demoted June 29 with a 6.90 ERA.

Hector recovered the sinker at Lehigh Valley, and has K'd nine of 14 batters  in five strong appearances since his return. Too good not to be in future plans.

24. Ranger Suarez, SP -- Needs to be traded to Texas and develop control issues, just for the headline potential ("Walk Him, Texas Ranger"). Probably not. Instead, we hope he remains and one day throws a shutout for the Phillies ("The Lone Ranger").

We know what Ranger is about right now. Just 22, he's put up a 2.81 ERA in 19 starts split between Reading and Lehigh Valley. Bonus points for being left-handed.

23. Tommy Hunter, RP -- It's not that Tommy has been bad, it's that he hasn't been good. A 3.72 ERA (3.32 FIP) is okay, but not what we're paying $18 million for to be sure. The contract isn't his fault. Somebody offers to pay you a lot of money, you accept.

Probably spends 2019 as an average-to-good reliever, then goes elsewhere.

22. JP Crawford, IF -- A lost season. That dreaded Mendoza Line has taunted JP at every stop this year (.143 in A ball; .083 at AAA; and .194 with the Phillies). Season marred by a broken hand.

But if we're being honest here, outside of a strong six-week stretch in AAA last year, Crawford has done nothing to justify his lofty prospect status of recent years.

With the Phils' leadership team apparently set to offer Manny Machado a contract equivalent to the GDP of some small countries, JP's future here is murky.

Has the talent and versatility to be a nice utility infielder. Not going anywhere.

21. Pat Neshek, RP -- With Hunter, part of the twin, free-agent, bullpen reinforcement plan. The almost-38-year-old Neshek is also here another year and then ... retirement?

Still a strong, unflappable reliever who gets key outs from the sixth inning to the ninth. A short-term force, but a force nonetheless. Penalized for missing three months to injury.

Next Up: We get into some starters and key prospects with Nos. 11-20.

Roster Review 31-40: The Name's Mitch

The Phillies have taken gigantic strides forward in 2018, due largely to core players becoming solid-to-good big leaguers. There's even a pair of superstars.

We'll name them later. First, let's start this 40-man roster analysis at 40 and work our way to No. 1. The Phillies continue to have a deep farm system, despite graduating several prospects to the big club.

These 40-man roster spots are crucial, and some of these players are going to lose their places. But those who remain will form one of the best rosters in the game.

The following ranking is based on two criteria: the player's 2018 season, and their importance to the organization moving forward.

40: Mitch Walding, 3B -- Hopefully, Mitch comes up in September and gets a few knocks in a big league uniform. So far, he is 0-14 with 10 strikeouts. You know it's bad when the announcers are opening rooting for you to dribble a ball into an unoccupied area just to get that hit.

What they know is Walding is not a major league player and odds are low that he ever appears in another game after this season. He made it onto the 40-man and into a few games after a series of freak injuries to Phillies' infielders.

I am betting that Walding, 26 on Sept. 10, will be removed from the roster after the season. Now go get some hits, Mitch!

39. Aaron Loup, RP -- I confess that I am not sure what Loup is doing here. He is a 30-year-old LOOGY and not a very good one (4.32 ERA in 205 games since 2015). He is not off to a good start with the Phillies and his career is seemingly nearing its sunset. A free agent to be, he won't be resigned.

38. Mark Leiter, P -- 2017 Mark Leiter offered two intriguing qualities: his bloodlines and his ability to swing between starting and relieving with ease. But when you looked closer, Leiter -- son of Mark Leiter and nephew of Al Leiter -- wasn't very good in either role.

Add in a significant injury in 2018 and Leiter is on the bubble. Leiter posted a 4.96 ERA in 2017 and pitched to a 5.40 this season. He turns 28 in March and might be in a different organization by then.

37. Jose Taveras, SP -- Taveras started 2017 in A ball and ended it with a 1.32 ERA in seven Triple A starts. While never much of a prospect, his rangy 6-foot-4 frame, combined with his eye-popping performance, earned him a spot on the 40-man.

2018 brought opposite fortunes for Taveras. A shoulder injury limited him to 16.1 innings and a 5.51 ERA to date. He'll be 25 in November and fringe prospect pitchers with shoulder troubles are not good 40-man candidates. Jose needs a few good outings to remain in the picture.

36. Drew Anderson, SP -- Anderson is a guy you root for, and a poor man's Kyle Kendrick. Like KK, he is a righty who doesn't really throw it hard enough, or bend it enough to be a big league pitcher.

But Kyle had some crazy mental toughness, and a work ethic that ticked up a notch once he started following Roy Halladay around. That Kyle Kendrick had a 10-year big league career is something that still amazes me.

What I am saying is Drew Anderson probably isn't going to make it. He's appeared in four games over two seasons for the big Phillies and has a 10.80 ERA. He's given up 14 hits in 8.1 innings.

Drew, 24, is still fairly youthful and having a decent season at Triple A. He might hold onto his spot for another year.

35. Jesmuel Valentin, Utility -- Versatility is a wonderful thing, and Valentin brings it. In 46 games with the big club, he's appeared at five different defensive positions and pitched an inning.

Unfortunately, Jesmuel hasn't played any of them very well. He has a .562 OPS and gave up three runs in his inning on the mound. Expendable, especially with Crawford and Kingery offering the same versatility and doing it better.

34. Yacksel Rios, RP -- Rios is an intriguing arm, one that suddenly began throwing 98 this year after previously averaging 94. Still, the results are somewhat mediocre: a 4.87 ERA in 44.1 innings.

But I think you try to keep a guy who averages 98 if you can.

33. Asdrubal Cabrera, IF -- Cabrera added some power to the lineup after being acquired at the trade deadline. But his defense is suspect, and the post-trade OPS is just .621.

Asdrubal is a free agent and it's hard to envision a scenario where he is a Phillie in 2019.

32. Ben Lively, SP -- Ben is Drew Anderson with a stronger pedigree. While he continues to dominate Triple A, Ben has yet to demonstrate he can be a capable Major League starter.

Injuries set him back this year, as did a 6.86 ERA in five early starts. But last year, Ben put up a 1.2 WAR in 15 starts. Turns 27 in March. Probably sticks as Triple A starter inventory for a few more seasons.

31. Dylan Cozens, OF -- Still not sure what the Phillies have in Cozens. But he is a young 24. His initial big league playing time has not gone well (2-20, 14 Ks). At Triple A, Cozens improved his K/W rate as the Phillies asked, boosting his OBP from .301 to .343.

Interestingly, his slugging percentage also climbed, from .418 to .504. Probably not a future Big Phillie, but you can't give up on a terrific athlete with 90 home runs the past three seasons.

Next up: We slot several prospects and break down a pair of struggling OFs with Nos. 21-30.

Make It A 40

Wilson Ramos played 727 games prior to Wednesday night and tallied one career triple.

The lumbering catcher started his first game for the Phillies having missed a month with a hamstring issue. Needless to say, we weren't expecting a three-bagger. But when a Ramos liner split the right-field gap and took a crazy bounce off the wall, the big man rolled into third base standing.

Maybe it was a sign. Ramos would add two doubles and become the first player with three extra-base hits in his Phillies' debut since Ed Freed in 1942.

No. 40 never looked so good on a Phillie.

To be sure, Ramos was the difference between a crucial win and a costly loss. After the game, I saw a tweet from a giddy Phils' blogger claiming the team should ink the free-agent-to-be Ramos to a new contract.

The following day, I started thinking about that tweet. It's not a crazy idea.

Let's review the market conditions for Wilson Ramos to the Phillies:

* The Phils have a young catcher they like very much in Jorge Alfaro. But Ramos is 31, so he wouldn't be a super-long-term solution. And you need two backstops.

* The Phils are committed to doing short-term, higher-dollar deals. My hypothetical guess is they'd like to go two years with Ramos, but it will likely take three.

* Ramos is injury prone, which might dampen his market. He's exceeded 435 at-bats just twice in a nine-year career.

The current top of the catching contract market is a three-year, $60 million extension Yadier Molina signed last year. Ramos is good, but he's not Yaddy, offensively or defensively.

Wilson is playing under a two-year, $12.5 million deal and has banked $25 million in his career. This will be his last significant contract.

So what would it take? Let's say the Phils offer three and $35 and they settle at $38.

What do you think?

Kaptain Fantastic

On Oct. 29, the Phillies made Gabe Kapler the 54th manager in team history. I've been around for 16 of them, pledging my allegiance to the team during the Danny Ozark (1973-79) era.

Danny skippered the team to three straight playoff appearances, and several hilarious pressers.

"Even Napoleon had his Watergate," DO once told bemused beat writers.

Since then, there have been a lot of forgettable Nick Leyvas and Ryne Sandbergs manning the Phils' dugout. Terry Francona was the one who got away.

And now Kapler. By most accounts, the decision came down to Gabe or organizational man Dusty Wathan. I wanted Wathan.

Dusty was a catcher. He had managed successfully at five levels for a decade in the Phillies' farm system. He was especially close to the next gen core players like Rhys Hoskins and Scott Kingery.

Dusty was my guy. But Kap was GM Matt Klentak's guy, reportedly wowing the team in his second interview.

It didn't start out well. The nadir came quickly, with Kapler calling a cold pitcher in from the bullpen early in a 15-2 game three drubbing. It was an embarrassing, amateurish look for a guy with virtually zero managing experience.

"Failure is not fatal," Winston Churchill once said. "It is the courage to continue that counts."

From the ashes of Kapler's early failures emerged a quality leader in many ways. Two qualities have impressed me in particular:

1. Communication. We have heard Kap tout his communication skills from day one. The value of it can get lost I think. After all, who can't communicate?

Kap seems to have a very disciplined approach: ALWAYS lavish praise on players in public; give them straight talk behind closed doors.

The first part is obvious, but I have little evidence for the second. But when Maikel Franco was benched in June, it was plainly reported that Franco met with skip and "was told he wasn't going to be playing as much."

If this is his communication plan, it's a good one. Players like to be told to their face what is happening. They might not like what they hear, but they will respect it.

What they won't respect is a manager calling a player out in the media because they saw Bill Parcells do it and it worked for him.

You have to be comfortable with who you are and that appears to be Kap's greatest strength. After all, could you take a picture like this if you weren't?

2. Flexibility. Thinking you have all the answers is the surest way for an inexperienced leader to find trouble. Being a leader does not mean you don't need help.

President John F. Kennedy called his predecessor for a extraordinary meeting following the Bay of Pigs fiasco. Dwight D. Eisenhower was a legendary war hero and popular president from the opposition party. Yet, JFK knew Ike could help him and he drew on that counsel during his deft handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

To the casually familiar, Kap presents as an arrogant guy. So I feared early on that this could be a problem. His hiring of Wathan as third base coach should have clued me in that I was mistaken.

The opening game was thrown away after Kap removed starting pitcher Aaron Nola after just 68 pitches. The squad's best offensive player, Odubel Herrera, didn't start because Kap's match-ups didn't dictate it.

Nola wasn't happy. Herrera wasn't happy. The bullpen blew the game. WIP phone lines filled with anxious fans agitated by Kap's unorthodox philosophies.

Then something happened: Kap tossed many of his new baseball ideas out the window.

A couple weeks ago, Nola stood on the mound at Fenway Park at 100 pitches in a 1-1 game in the eighth inning. After a leadoff double, all-world Mookie Betts strode to the plate with one out, to be followed by bad-matchup lefty Andrew Benintendi.

The Phils' bullpen finished July with the best ERA in baseball. Yet Kap never moved as the Phillies' ace retired both on five pitches.

To be sure, it hasn't been all puppies and champagne toasts inside the Phillies' clubhouse. Nick Williams, Jake Arietta and an unnamed player have all taken shots at Kap in interviews.

But this, too, gave the skipper another chance to show off his confidence and leadership skills.

I don't know if the Phillies will complete this surprise season and make the playoffs.

But Gabe Kapler just turned 43 two weeks ago and it's beginning to look like Manager No. 55 might have to wait a while.