Roster Rundown No. 31-40: The Journeyman Chronicles

What a strange year 2019 has been for the Phillies. A lot of what we expected to happen didn't and many of our player projections went sideways.

After a really promising start, most of it was bad. I can sum up 2019 with David Robertson. The veteran righty walked into the Phillies' clubhouse having appeared in 60+ games for nine straight years.

He will conclude his two-year Phillies career with 6.2 innings pitched after succumbing to Tommy John.

That is 2019 at Citizens Bank Ballpark.

Onward and upward. It's September again and time to evaluate and rank the 40-man roster. The 40-man is going to change quite a bit as it always does, so let's start right at the bottom and work our way up.

Summer brought with it a constant reminder of the club's new focus on winning in the form of a parade of journeyman signings. Our 31-40 list is filled with these fleeting figures.

As always, rankings are a combination of 2019 success and future value. (Last year's rank in parentheses)

40. Jose Pirela, OF (NA): A veteran with some hitting skills, Pirela was picked up for depth in late July. But he was quickly eclipsed by Corey Dickerson, and even Logan Morrison. Pirela languishes in Lehigh Valley, where he isn't performing particularly well. Will most certainly be ejected from the 40-man in October.

39. Logan Morrison, 1B (NA): One of those guys who lost it quickly in his 30s. Two years ago, Morrison hit 38 homers for the Rays and drew 81 walks. Last year, he hit .186 for the Twins and found only a minor league offer this year. A lumbering guy realistically limited to first base, it's hard to see the Phils having any use for him in 2020.

38. Juan Nicasio, RP (NA): Things have not gone especially well for the veteran righty of late. Hitters mashed him hard after the All-Star break and he's gone to the injured list twice. Looks like the end of the line for the impending free agent.

37. Drew Anderson, SP (36): Not a high draft pick, never a prospect and a pitcher with no plus pitches. Hurlers with this profile need to maximize their limited opportunities. For the third straight season, Anderson got a few innings to show the big club something. For the third year, he missed the mark. He added an unsightly 0-6, 5.77 ERA at Lehigh Valley, with a lengthy injury timeout. Last year, I wrote: "he might hold onto his spot for another year." At this point, the 25-year-old would appear to be a DFA candidate.

36. Brad Miller, Utility (NA): The much-traveled Miller once hit 30 homers for the Rays (doesn't everyone?). Seems like a long time ago. The versatile veteran popped four dingers with the Phillies, but it likely won't be near enough to warrant a return for the soon-to-be free agent.

35. Drew Smyly, SP (NA): The 2019 Phillies have a remarkable number of veteran fringe players just passing through. Smyly is another guy who has not proved worthy of 2020 consideration (7.20 ERA last five starts).

34. Jerad Eickhoff, SP (IL): This is a tough one for me. Much respect for guys who work as hard as Eickhoff does and keep getting up off the floor. However, the results just aren't there and it would be surprising to see the Phils offer him arbitration. After struggling with the big club (5.71 ERA in 11 Gs) earlier this summer, Eickhoff went on the IL. Most recently he's been lit up in Double A. The 29-year-old should get a minors deal somewhere, perhaps even at Lehigh Valley.

33. Jason Vargas, SP (NA): His six starts with the club are noteworthy for the lowest K/9 rate (4.6) you'll see in today's game. No reporters were harmed by this acquisition -- yet. Thanks and good luck with your future endeavors, sir.

32. Maikel Franco, 3B (4): Not sure what's worse, Franco's performance or me ranking him 4th last year. Yikes.

Once again, we seem to have reached the end of the Franco era. This time, it feels permanent. After a torrid April start that sparked talk of Franco smashing records for 8th-hole production, it all came crashing down after Maik's swing holes returned. When he times it up in his zone, the man can mash a baseball. The low-and-away slider is his Chappaquiddick. Good luck, Maik. Hello, Alec Bohm.

31: Andrew Knapp, C (29): While not among the highest priorities, one would think the Phils are in the market for a backup catcher upgrade.  Knapp has not produced either at the plate (.598 OPS) or in the field (20% caught stealing rate). Meanwhile, Deivi Grullon has 21 homers and a .283 batting average in Triple A. Spring training battle?

Next up: several relievers and a some minor thoughts dominate the 21-30 list.

The Phillies Are In Trouble

Hall of Famer Greg Maddux once said "the best pitchers have short-term memory and bulletproof confidence."

Both qualities are nearly extinct in the Philadelphia Phillies' pitching room. To be perfectly blunt, the Phillies are screwed at the present point and time.

To recap, Gabe Kapler's squad entered the season with five SPs and another six Major League-ready (or close) starters at Triple A Lehigh Valley.

As the squad bears down on game 100, every one of those 11 pitchers has taken a step backwards. Some have taken a couple steps.

The comprehensive futility is downright stunning. One wonders if the organizational pitching philosophy is to blame, or if the young pitchers were never that good to begin with.

Let's rundown the (not) Elite Eleven, then discuss why the Phillies are screwed:

1. Aaron Nola: No worries here, but he has regressed from No. 1 starter status one year ago (17-6, 2.37 ERA). After a rough start, Nola has been better lately, but this team needs him to be far better than a 3.77 ERA. Most concerning is his career-high walk rate (3.8), which sat at 2.5 coming into the year.

Worst-case scenario: Maybe he's just a No. 3 starter.

2. Jake Arietta: Bone spurs might be an asterisk here. But the numbers are down: (3.96 ERA to 4.40), (.254 opposing BA to .280), (1.29 WHIP to 1.45). At 33, Arietta is a back-end starter for one more year.

Worst-care scenario: He has elbow surgery and is even less effective.

3. Zach Eflin: For much of this season, Eflin was the only bright spot. He wiped that out with his last four starts (23 ER, .385 BA against, 7 homers allowed, 9.90 ERA). Overall, Eflin's hits per nine, fielding-independent pitching, WHIP, K/9 and homers/9 are all worse than 2018.

Worst-case scenario: Eflin is never consistent enough to be a legitimate ML starter.

4. Nick Pivetta: A nightmare season. Sent to LV for a month, then banished to the bullpen this week. A 5.74 ERA, 10.2 hits per nine, 1.493 WHIP.

Worst-case scenario: We're living it.

5. Vince Velasquez: I cringed when Kapler moved Vinny to the bullpen. He is not the guy to start, then relieve, then return to starting. The numbers are predictably poor (career-worst 5.88 FIP and 2.5 homers/9).

Worst-case scenario: Not mentally tough enough to stick.

6. Jerad Eickhoff: Nice comeback story that quickly descended into hell (5.71 ERA, 6.51 FIP, 2.8 homers/9).

Worst-case scenario: Wastes a great curveball due to poor fastball command. Triple A SP.

7. Cole Irvin: Nice debut, then pounded relentlessly in 27 ML innings (7.24 ERA). Triple A numbers down sharply (2.57 to 3.76 ERA, 7.5 hits/9 to 10.5, 7.3 Ks/9 to 5.9).

Worst-case scenario: Fastball neither fast enough, nor controlled enough, to pitch in the ML.

8. Enyel De Los Santos: Was poor in limited ML time last year (4.74 ERA, 3.8 walks/9); absolutely dreadful in a similar run this year (7.36 ERA, 4.1 walks/9).

Worst-case scenario: Opts to pitch in Korea rather than move to a relief role.

9. Drew Anderson: Never much of a true prospect, Anderson seemingly put himself in position to get a chance this year with a strong spring training coming off a 2.37 FIP in 12.2 big-league innings in 2018. It hasn't worked out. In six early innings for the Phillies, he gave up 5 runs. At LV, Anderson regressed (3.87 ERA to 5.77, 2.5 walks/9 to 5 walks/9). Not currently pitching and I have no idea where he is (injured?).

Worst-case scenario: Is never heard from again.

10. Ranger Suarez: The guy with the cool name had an outstanding 2018 season (2.74 ERA in 21 starts) split between AA-AAA. Had a 5.68 ERA in seven LV starts this year before injuries necessitated his call-up. Is pitching OK out of the Phillies bullpen in sporadic mop-up situations (3.21 ERA).

Worst-case scenario: Mediocre loogy.

11. Jojo Romero: After a decent season in AA last year (3.80 ERA), hopes were high for Romero at LV. He cratered to a 9.64 ERA in seven starts before being sent back to AA (5.23 ERA in 10 starts).

Worst-case scenario: Never appears in the majors.

Screwed

You're the manager, dear reader. Pick five 2020 starting pitchers from the carnage above. Realistically, the Phillies have Nola, a rapidly declining Arietta and a hope Eflin is seriviceable.

So just reset the rebuild, right? Wrong. Once John Middleton took on $450 million or so in position-player salary, any rebuild went out the door.

The Phillies are financially committed to win now. Earl Weaver believed the "key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals and three-run homers."

The three-run bombs are there and the fundamentals can be taught. Now the Phillies need the pitching -- and desperately.

They have a couple choices, and the cost is going to be high.

• Trade for a controllable starter, such as Robbie Ray, Mike Minor or Marcus Stroman. All three will be under contract through 2020. The prospect cost will be very steep, and the competition fierce.
• Sign a Free Agent (or two) in the offseason. If I am an agent for Zach Wheeler, Alex Wood or Jake Odorizzi, the Phillies' pitching implosion is a utopian scenario. Middleton will likely be in a defenseless position and forced to throw a wad of money at one of these names.

The Phillies have no choice but to expend a lot of resources to upgrade the pitching.

Desperate times are here.

Half-Philled: One Good Thing, One Bad Thing

Our Philadelphia Phillies hit the halfway point today in what has been an emotionally up-and-down season so far.

Some things have good well. Plenty has gone wrong, mostly of late. Manager Gabe Kapler used a lot of players and the squad provided plenty of highlights, starting with Andrew McCutchen smacking a home run on the season's second pitch.

This could be a 20,000-word piece getting into all of that. Instead, I want to focus on one good thing and one bad.

I'm a positive guy and I'm starting with Scottie Kingery.

The Good Thing

I was watching a game earlier this year and Kingery struck out on two breaking balls in the dirt off the outside corner. The slider away has ruined many a hitter and it looked like Scottie was troubled by the pitch.

Fast forward to the fifth inning Monday and Kingery down 0-2 to Mets P Brooks Pounders. The big righty threw the down and away breaking pitch. Scottie never flinched. He threw it again and again Kingery took it.

The 2-2 fastball caught too much of the plate and Scottie laced it into left field. The at-bat continued the ongoing success Kingery has enjoyed since that earlier game. He's rapidly recognizing how pitchers are attacking him and using his quick bat to maintain the advantage.

Pitchers threw 665 pitches to Kingery as of Tuesday and 177 of them were off the plate outside and low. That will change and pitchers will start pounding him inside eventually.

Kingery won't hit .330 for much longer, but I do expect him to remain an offensive force. I haven't compiled a great track record of predictions here, but I always like Scottie. Here is my season-ending assessment last September:

Scott Kingery, IF -- I remain a huge believer in Scott Kingery. Yes, the stats will show a very poor season, but that is hardly unusual for rookies. On defense, the Phils believe in his ability to play SS. It is a tremendous accomplishment to become proficient while converting to such a crucial position at the ML level.

On offense, Scottie is hitting .307 ahead in the count, with an .930 OPS. However, while his teammates are roughly equal parts hitting ahead and behind in the count, Kingery's at-bats are ending with the pitcher ahead three times as often.

That will change, or it should change, as Scott learns the pitchers and gets more experience. He has a great, team-friendly contract and an impressive power-speed combo that is going to play well for many years to come.

The Bad Thing

I'm going off the field for this one and into the draft room. This Phillies rebuild is not going much further without some stud pitching. We're now years into the Nick Pivetta-Vince Velasquez-Zach Eflin tryout and nobody is comparing them to Koufax, Drysdale, or even Osteen.

The Phillies need better and more reliable starting pitching. Somebody like the Dodgers' Walker Buehler or the Braves' Mike Soroka.

In fact, the organization could have drafted either Buehler or Soroka in that 2015 draft. Instead, the Phillies selected OF Cornelius Randolph. He is not in the major leagues, nor is he expected to be anytime soon.

Under Andy MacPhail, joined by GM Matt Klentak for the 2016 draft, the Phillies drafted in the top 10 four years on a row: Randolph (10th), OF Mickey Moniak (1st), OF Adam Haseley (8th) and 3B Alec Bohm (3rd).

MacPhail has said that he favors drafting position players with premium picks because they offer more certainty in projection. In other words, they are safer.

So far, that hasn't been the case with the above players. Meanwhile, several young pitchers the Phillies bypassed are thriving. Names like Matt Manning (Tigers), Braxton Garrett (Marlins) and Cal Quantril (Padres).

But the real heartburn for me is looking up at the Braves' superteam and seeing not only Soroka, but Kolby Allard (14th, 2015), Ian Anderson (3rd, 2016), Joey Wentz (40th, 2016), and Kyle Wright (5th, 2017).

The Braves have literally taken the opposite approach of the Phillies, and are staring at a staff of future top of the rotation starters.

That's tough to take, especially when several of those pitchers were taken just a couple spots after the Phillies' picks.

All eyes are on the National League

To get a sense of how competitive the National League is, look at the projected win totals in the East: Phillies, 89.5; Nationals, 87.5; Mets and Braves, 84.5.

One-by-one, those four teams took turns adding firepower this offseason. Josh Donaldson, Yan Gomes, Edwin Diaz, Patrick Corbin, Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Brian Dozier, Andrew McCutcheon and Jed Lowrie are just some of the stars coming to the NL East.

The Phillies struck within the division, too, importing C JT Realmuto and OF Bryce Harper.

This is going to be a fun race all season long. Frankly, with 76 games to play against these four teams, it's hard to see how the woeful Marlins get to their Vegas win projection (65.5). I would take the Under on that one.

If Major League Baseball has a tanking and competitiveness problem, it isn't found in the senior circuit. In fact, the leagues stand in stark contrast to one another on this issue.

Full disclosure: I am an NL guy. Always have been. Having said that, it is hard to see any juice in the American League in 2019.

It will be an epic upset if the five playoff teams do not include the New York Yankees (95.5), Boston Red Sox (95.5), Houston Astros (96.5) and Cleveland Indians (90.5).

Perhaps you are jazzed for the expected race for the final wild-card spot among the Twins (84.5), Rays (84.5) and A's (83.5). I am not.

Of the teams starting a teardown/rebuild -- Tigers, Orioles, Blue Jays, Rangers, Mariners, Diamondbacks -- most are in the AL. Add those teams to the dreadful squads who have already bottomed out, like the White Sox and Royals, and you're going to have some terribly boring Thursday afternoon getaway games in the junior circuit.

Of course, we'll still be treated to 14 ESPN Sunday Night games between the Red Sox and Yankees to see who is the division winner and who is the wild card. Bucky Dent will not be seen in these games.

And the NL is deeper than just the East. Over in the Central, The Cubs (88.5), Cardinals (88.5) and defending champion Brewers (84.5) will slug it out.

Personally, I think the Brewers are the best team there, but we shall see.

Only the Dodgers (94.5) out West are a near playoff lock in the NL. Even the teams projected to be outside the playoff race, such as the Reds and Padres, have made enough significant offseason additions to draw interest.

The NL is going to be fun all summer long.