I love Aaron Nola.
I love how poised and controlled he is at all times. He's that kind of player who looks exactly the same whether he's throwing a perfect game, or getting bludgeoned for six runs.
I love that Nola seems like a really good dude. Cousin AJ Nola shared a story about Aaron in a 2018 interview with The Athletic. In 2016, AJ and her husband visited Philly and attended a game that saw Aaron get pounded for seven runs by the Nationals. The perfectionist pitcher kept them waiting two hours while he watched film.
Their dinner plans were delayed and words were exchanged. Nobody was in a good mood when they exited the player's parking lot. About 20 kids were hunting autographs at the gate. AJ assumed Aaron would keep driving, yet he stopped, got out and signed for every kid. A good dude.
Nola is pretty good on the bump, too. A true pitcher, Aaron throws a variety of different pitches from different angles, in and out, up and down.
But I think it might be time to trade Aaron Nola.
Keep in mind that I know this isn't going to happen. But I do think there's a team and a trade that makes great sense and could help the Phillies emerge from the malaise that has enveloped the organization.
Let me anticipate your incredulous objections to trading Nola to the Tampa Bay Rays.
1. The Rays don't trade for established veterans. This is generally very true. But the Rays have lost Tyler Glasnow, likely for 2022 as well. TB is a team that can go to the World Series again. They need a big dog pitcher and they have the assets to trade for one.
2. The Rays can't afford a big contract. Also generally very true. But Nola's roughly $36 million due through 2023 can fit in their budget, especially after the Phightins take back CF Kevin Kiermaier and the $30 million he is due over the same timeframe.
3. The Phils would be selling low. It might seem that way if you look at Aaron's 4.53 ERA and high-profile struggles, but the secondary numbers disagree. His 3.47 fielding-independent pitching is very good, and the strikeout-walk ratio is the best of his career. Nola is suffering from a .333 BAbip, or 50 points higher than last year. In short, he's had a lot of bad luck and the Rays know which numbers are important.
4. The Phils can't trade a frontline starter. It's a tough move to make for sure. Aaron Nola represents a rare draft coup amid a string of mistake picks since the Phils started this rebuild in 2013. In seven years of Nola leading this pitching staff, the Phils have yet to break .500. They lack good players, can't rely on the draft and are maxing out their budget. This is one way to add four good players for one big loss.
Nola's spot in the rotation would be filled by Shane Baz, the headline piece in return. In 11 starts split between AA/AAA, Baz has a 2.09 ERA with 77 Ks in 51.2 innings. Just 22, Baz is too young to be thrust into a pennant race, especially on a team already relying on heralded rookie starters Luis Patino and Shane McClanahan. The Rays cannot count on Rich Hill or Chris Archer (if he ever returns) beyond their next starts. They need a young veteran frontline SP to step into Glasnow's shoes. Nola moves a lot closer to his beloved Louisiana. This trade makes too much sense.
5. This trade makes no @%&#! sense! Look, the Phillies are in no man's land: they have too much money invested in stars like Zack Wheeler, JT Realmuto and, of course, $330 million-dollar-man Bryce Harper. Too much money invested in those players to do anything but go all-in to win.
What is frustrating is those stars have played like big-time stars. It's the average veteran, the solid player, the fourth starter where the squad is falling woefully short. They have little depth, the farm system is weaker than a Rich Kotite halftime adjustment and they have the league's worst defense by far. This four-for-Nola trade helps the Phils move forward and remain a contender.
Baz steps into the rotation (although maybe not until '22). Kiermaier gives the franchise its best defensive CF since Garry Maddox patrolled the Vet. While his overall offensive numbers are poor, KK is hitting .311 since June 11. The Rays, meanwhile, have a similar player in Manny Margot.
Joey Wendle gives Joe Girardi another plus plus defender who can play 2B, 3B, SS and even some outfield. The Rays have a glut of IFs and, with Wendle due a hefty arbitration raise, no doubt consider him expendable. JW could slot in at 3B for Philly in the likely event that Alec Bohm is moved to 1B. It sets up GM Dave Dombrowski to further improve the roster with a December trade of 1B Rhys Hoskins.
The Rays would add a decent prospect from their prospect-rich farm to complete this deal.
It's pure fantasy but it makes good sense to me.
What do you think?
