10. Odubel Herrera, OF -- I could write a book on this one. Let's start with a recollection: I was watching a game very early this year and at a crucial moment in a late-inning comeback, Herrera struck out on a pitch that went to the backstop.
My reflex emotion was panic that Odubel would not run to first. Now in fairness, he did hustle it out and I think we won that game. My point is I don't even question whether Cesar runs. Or Rhys. Or Nick. Or virtually anyone else on the squad.
With Odubel, you always have to question whether he will execute the obvious baseball play. Most of the time he does; sometimes, he doesn't. When the team is 66-96, it's an issue that passes with a visit to the manager's office. When you're contending for a playoff spot, it's a different deal.
I wish I knew how Jake, Aaron, Carlos, Tommy and Rhys feel about Odubel. That might reveal how this plays out. But I think an exciting, low-cost player like this has strong value to a small-market team like the Rays, Royals or Padres. Don't rule out an offseason trade here.
On the field, Odubel already has career highs in homers (21) and RBIs (65). But overall, he's been absurdly inconsistent. After hitting .361 through May 17, Herrera is hitting .223 with a .653 OPS since.
Three more years on a very affordable contract, with two team options to follow.
9. Seranthony Dominguez, RP -- Still adjusting to the relief world, but when it's there, this young man is a game-ender. As in, when he comes on the game is over.
One of the best fastball-slider combos I've ever seen. Again, when he has it, he brings No. 1 at 98-99 and it not only moves, it moves late. Add the low-90s slider with sharp break, and it's almost unfair to the hitters.
He's putting up 11.8 Ks per nine, with a 2.76 FIP and just 29 hits allowed in 40.1 innings. Opponents are hitting .163 with a .516 OPS.
A weapon. Has the potential to become one of the very best late-game relievers in baseball with a full offseason to get acclimated to the role.
8. Zach Eflin, SP --
7. Nick Pivetta, SP --
6. Vince Velasquez, SP --
Let's do these three together -- and you can group them any way you want. I've ordered them every possible way over the past two weeks. Now I give up.
The youngest at 24, Zach was lights out in June -- not so much lately. Has 6-7 fewer starts after beginning in Triple A. A decent 3.86 FIP, with 8.4 Ks and 2.4 walks per nine. He is under team control for four more years. Has the stuff to be a Kyle Lohse-type starter.
Pivetta has a good FIP at 3.66, and he is under team control for five seasons. Nick gives up some homers (21), but the strikeout (10.7 per nine) and walk (2.7) rates are dazzling. In fact, all three stats are reminiscent of former Phils' power righty Curt Schilling. A 2.2 WAR.
If style and stuff are your thing, you want Vinnie. He has allowed the fewest hits (7.7), with 10 Ks against 3.6 walks per nine. A 2.9 WAR. VV is the oldest at 26 and under team control for three more years.
Each player experienced dazzling highs and debilitating lows this season. But there's been a lot more good than bad. Most importantly, they have stayed healthy for the most part.
Get used to seeing them. These three are going to start a ton of games the next three years.
5. Cesar Hernandez, 2B -- It's been a strange year for Cesar Augusto Hernandez. He will set career highs in homers (11) and stolen bases (18) and has a chance to walk 100 times and score 100 runs. As the leadoff man, he offers intriguing speed and on-base skills, with some decent power.
But his season went south a bit after fouling a ball off his foot in June. Cesar is hitting just .228 in the second half. Worse, his defense is suffering from the same malady that has infected the entire squad.
With a nod to his standing as an established player, we're going to give Cesar a pass this year. Under team control for two more years.
4. Maikel Franco, 3B -- The Jim Plunkett of the squad. After joining the Raiders in 1978, Plunkett went from, in the words of Tommy Prothro, "the best pro QB prospect I've ever seen" to a benchwarmer who threw 15 passes over two seasons.
Then injuries left Oakland with no choice but to plug in Plunkett, and well, you know the rest. That might be a tad dramatic in comparison to Maikel, but when he was benched in mid-June, that was supposed to be curtains on Franco's Phillies' career.
Instead, IFs Pedro Florimon and JP Crawford were both seriously injured. Franco went back in by default. And finally, we began seeing the production and promise foreshadowed in 2015.
In his last 62 games, Maikel is hitting .292 with 13 homers and an .865 OPS.
3. Jake Arietta, SP -- On June 3, the listless Phils dropped another game at San Francisco, their sixth loss in eight games. Afterwards, Arietta ripped into the defense, the strategy, the effort, the attitude and left no doubt about his feelings.
When a World Series and Cy Young winner speaks, it has an impact on the locker room. The team would struggle for a few days more, but soon ripped off 17 wins in 24 games to take over first place.
On the field, Jake caused panic among the saber set with his declining 7 Ks per nine (down from 8.7 in 2017). Otherwise, his season is virtually a repeat of his final one with the Cubs: 10-9, a 3.61 ERA and a 4.20 FIP.
A rotation stabilizer and strong team leader. Here through the 2020 season.
2. Rhys Hoskins, OF -- This guy gets it. Always smiling, working, improving and encouraging. Earlier this year, Hoskins had a 14-pitch at-bat that ended with a rocket into the centerfield seats.
Rhys hits like a middle-order power guy (30 doubles, 29 homers), yet gets on base like a leadoff hitter (77 walks, .359 OBP). At 6-foot-4, 225, already patrols the dugout like it's his team. Seemingly accepts pressure and responsibility and asks for more.
If the Phillies achieve greatness, I think Rhys is the one we are going to look back upon with special fondness. After all, 5th round picks are not supposed to become franchise pillars. Hoskins' stunning rise is giving the team rebuild a huge boost.
1. Aaron Nola, SP -- Undisputed No. 1. One of the most valuable young players in the game. Legit Cy Young and MVP candidate. Future $300 million pitcher.
On the mound, Nola has such a tranquil demeanor that contrasts nicely with Hoskins' fiery personality. These two are the perfect pair to lead the squad into the future.
The numbers are sublime: 16-4, 2.29, a 9 WAR.
Two Nola points, one on the field and one off:
* He has earned complete and absolute trust in the big moments. Earlier this year, he gave up a one-out, eighth-inning double in a 1-1 game at Fenway Park vs. the mighty Red Sox. Red-hot Mookie Betts and tough lefty Andrew Benintendi were due up. At 100 pitches, virtually any other starter would have been removed. Aaron retired both in five pitches.
The scenario repeated itself in an Aug. 23 game. This time, Nola held a 2-0 lead against the Nats with two on and two out in the eighth inning. This time, the dangerous Bryce Harper stepped in. Five pitches later, he stepped out a K victim on a 95+ fastball.
The great ones get tough outs and Nola has done it all year.
* This is just a character story from a The Athletic early this year. In April 2016, Nola's parents and brother were in town to see him pitch and the outing was decidedly unsatisfactory. Aaron adhered to his traditional postgame routine watching video.
He lost track of time and kept the family waiting for two hours. His father snapped at him when he finally appeared. Everyone was in a foul mood.
The hour was late when Nola pulled out of the player's parking lot. Still, about two dozen kids remained and called out for Aaron to sign. His father was sure he would pass, given the late hour and having been tagged for seven runs in five innings.
Instead, Nola stopped the car, got out and signed every last autograph request.
The Phillies have a long way to go before they'll be ready to win a postseason series. But they have two of the hardest ingredients to find in Nola and Hoskins: a No. 1 starter and a lineup anchor.
And both are just 25.
March 28, 2019 can't come fast enough.
