Thursday, July 27, 2017

In Praise of Freddy



On June 21, despite a three-hit game, Freddy Galvis' batting average stood at a weakly .238.

There was no indication of anything more. Galvis maintained a Major League locker for five-plus years with his glove. His offense rarely offered any sustained contributions.

Then manager Pete Mackanin moved Galvis to the two hole for the June 22 game against the Cardinals. It generated no attention. Mackanin frequently moves hitters up and down the lineup, and relievers into different roles -- a habit that often earns him the wrath of fans and writers.

Freddy Galvis is why Mackanin tinkers.

In 29 games from the second spot, Freddy has hit .277 with six doubles, five homers and a triple -- good for a .471 slugging percentage. More importantly, he's drawn nine walks for a un-Galvis-like .331 on base percentage.

Even more importantly, the Phillies have scored 4.4 runs a game and the record is 13-16. Not great, but far superior to the 3.8 runs a game and 22-48 record of the first 70 games.

When the first pitch is thrown Friday against the visiting Braves, Galvis will be at his usual shortstop position. He plans to play all 162. In the bottom of the first, he'll bat second.

And the Phils are a better team with him there.



Monday, July 24, 2017

Phillies Should Trade For This Guy




Gerrit Cole was just 22 years old when he pitched his ass off for the Pirates in the 2013 NL Division Series.

In 11 innings, the electric Cole gave the Cardinals five hits, three runs and two walks for a stingy 0.636 WHIP. The No. 1 overall pick of the 2011 MLB Draft seemed headed for superstardom.

It hasn't happened. Now 26, Cole is a very good ML starting pitcher, but one who is repped by Scotty Hardball Boras.

Not since Katie Holmes married Mr. Scientology has a divorce been so obviously destined.

The Pirates are not going to be able to sign Cole. Of course, that doesn't mean they need to move him now either -- especially when it represents selling low.

Then again, few teams possess the prospect inventory the Phillies have. This is a deal that makes a great deal of sense.

Principal Owner John S. Middleton does not strike me as a patient man. And he has watched the Braves race past his franchise with a rebuild on steroids. Atlanta is executing a bold, two-track philosophy -- trading for young prospects at the same time they are adding veterans.

The Phils appear to be plodding along in comparison. I don't think that is going to continue much longer with Col. Middleton upstairs.

Obligatory bullet points:

The Phillies need starting pitching. This deal most likely isn't happening. But it does represent the biggest need. The Phillies will not be competitive again until they add some reliable starters alongside Aaron Nola. They will be looking for a veteran to replace Jeremy Hellickson.

Free agency offers no answers. Guys like Jake Arietta, Yu Darvish and Johnny Cueto are no fit agewise. That means taking a shot on a mediocre arm like Chris Tillman, Matt Moore or Michael Pineda. Given the largely failed experiments with Hellickson and Clay Buchholz, that feels about as appealing as a rectal exam.

Too many prospects? Yes, it's possible to have too many prospects in the abstract sense. We are seeing some of that system pressure now with Scott Kingery and Rhys Hoskins stuck in Triple AAA. ML tryouts become shorter, patience wears thin, and, hasty decisions can mean you end up developing players for other teams.

The Phillies system is having a phenomenal 2017. SP Sixto Sanchez is like the long-forgotten raffle ticket that yields a Porsche Boxster. The aforementioned Kingery is headed for a 30-30 season. Every team has a winning record. OFs Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams are having terrific seasons at the big club.

Add to that yet another top 10 prospect on the way via a soon-to-be-executed Pat Neshak deal, and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft. In short, I'd like to see us trim the cream a little and convert it into an established player.

Mickey Moniak, Franklyn Kilome, Cesar Hernandez and Drew Anderson are some pieces I'd put on the table here. Perhaps the GMs work in a Knapp-for-Cervelli angle to relieve the always-cash-poor Buccos of the $22-odd million owed the catcher.

Why Cole? Valid. After all, it isn't like we can leave Boras in Pittsburgh. And this is a player who has regressed, which I generally find as a red flag. Cole has had problems with home runs, an affliction that won't improve at the Bank.

I think the Phillies need to go big. There's a dank staleness hanging around this team so thick, you can almost see the mold starting to grow.

This organization has had great success taking talented SPs who have disappointed in other cities and making them stars. Steve Carlton, John Denny and Curt Schilling to name three.

Cole is 27 in September. He isn't an ace, but with a change of address, he might be ready for that stardom. He might be ready to lead a staff as a young veteran. He might be ready to earn a $150 million deal.

I wonder what Matt Klentak thinks?



Saturday, July 8, 2017

Phillies Primed for Quick Rise



Ryan Spilborghs remembers ripping the Houston Astros three years ago for "failing to put a competitive team on the field."

"Spilly," a host on Sirius XM MLB Radio, had some justification for the on-air outburst. Houston had lost 106, 107, 111 games, and was stumbling through another losing 2014.

But within the carnage, seeds were sprouting. Outfielders George Springer and Jake Marsinick struggled through their first Major League action, while 2B Jose Altuve and SP Dallas Kuechal broke through with plus-plus seasons.

"I wasn't thinking player development happened at the Major League level," Spilborghs recalled during a recent show. "I thought you came here as a finished product. That's not true."

The 2017 Philadelphia Phillies have the potential to be remembered alongside the Ricky Watters signing and the 1981 Eastern Conference Finals as one of the worst city sports debacles. It's a stink bomb, a Dumpster fire, a nightly Twitter mockfest, and many other descriptions not fit for a family blog.

Alas, if you squint hard, signs a life are evident. I mean you really gotta squint George Costanza-style to see it, but they are there.

Remember, the 2015 Houston Astros went 86-76, improving by 25 games in two years. The Phillies' tan... ahem, rebuild, has often been compared to Houston's, so a similar turnaround is not out of the realm. It is characterized by a wave of young prospects hitting the big club over a short timeframe.

The premise is simple -- guys bond and grow together and the cream rises to the top.

As Keni Burke say, "The time has finally come. Let's get it done..."



Okay, so let's put on our Costanza glasses and squint us some dimes. Three things I like about the squad:

* Aaron Nola: I doubt Nola will ever carry the team as its ace, but he's going to be a damn good No. 2 starter with a Tim Hudson/James Shields type career. Nola just turned 24 and is in his third big-league season. So much for the Phillies-don't-promote storyline.

In his last four starts, Nola has pitched 28.1 innings and allowed three earned runs. He appears to be through the sticky wicket that tends to greet all young pitchers.

FYI, I think the best move the Phils can make going forward is to acquire a frontline starter to pair with Aaron.

* Freddy Galvis: Speaking of Nola, he made some interesting comments on Freddy the other day.

"The guy is unbelievable, man," Nola said. "I wouldn't want anybody to be at shortstop other than that guy. He's been great for us. He's our leader."

As a journalist, you develop an ear for comments that fall outside the normal boilerplate. Nola is revealing some candor here. Or perhaps he was just grateful for plays like this:

I like Freddy. I like players who constantly fight off challenges and survive. Fans have been trying to run Galvis out of town for years. Yet he remains.

Look, Freddy has his warts and we all know them. But I'll never criticize a player who is constantly improving because it's the best evidence we have of work ethic.

Freddy's OPS the past three years: .546, .645 and .673. Currently, it stands at .710. After walking 25 times all of last year, Galvis has 22 walks already this year. If he can pair a .700 OPS with the terrific defense, Freddy is a starting SS on a winning team.

Yeah, I said it.

* Andrew Knapp: If you haven't been paying attention lately, you might have missed Knapp becoming the starting catcher.

The receiving skills are coming along nicely. At the plate, Knapp has a strong walk rate, a .362 OBP and a .755 OPS. A switch-hitter, he has pop and runs well.

At a time when plus catching is as scarce as a city parking spot, Knapp is developing value.

I haven't even mentioned Altherr, Kingery or the Nicks (Williams and Pivetta).

There's some good player development going on at the Major League level.

And the worst might be behind us.

Monday, July 3, 2017

Sam Who?


Bryan Colangelo became the Sixers’ GM this weekend.

Oh sure, it was fun seeing BC turn Danny Ainge into a whimpering “It was the best offer we got” loser in the pre-draft blockbuster trade. Aingey hadn’t been so humiliated by a Sixer since Sedale Threatt, circa 1986 (YouTube it).

The Boston trade netted Philly the best player in the draft in Markelle Fultz, a perfect fit on a team desperate for backcourt playmaking.

But it also left a young and tantalizingly talented team with two glaring needs: a three-point marksman and a versatile frontcourt presence – a “stretch four,” if you will.

Simply put, the Sixers needed a shooter to compliment the array of playmaking, multi-dimensional offensive pieces they have assembled.

Not just a good shooter. Not a streaky Robert Covington, or an improving Nik Stauskas. They needed somebody who can deliver like Mitch McConnell in a smoky Senate cloak room (I know they don't smoke anymore, but work with me).

They needed JJ Redick. At a time when 37-38 percent shooting from downtown is good, Redick shot 44 percent in four years with the Clippers. He might be the best three-point shooter in the NBA.

To put that value into perspective, consider that Redick literally does nothing else. He doesn’t rebound, or guard very well. His assists, blocks and steals are negligible.

But he shoots and scores in a way that changes the outcome of games. Minnesota wanted Redick, as did New Jersey and Houston. Some were offering more years and a lot more money.

For Colangelo to get Redick on a one-year contract is a value deal into which Warren Buffett would invest.

A few hours after Redick signed, Philly announced a one-year, $11 million deal with forward Amir Johnson. It got little notice, but could turn out to be Colangelo’s best move of the offseason.

Johnson is going to bring so much to the 2017-18 Sixers. Hyperbole, you say? Consider that Johnson posted a 5.0 WS (win shares: “an estimate of the number of wins contributed by the player.”) this past season.

That is higher than Redick, whose Clippers also made the playoffs. The Sixers were led by point guard TJ McConnell with 3.8.

Amir Johnson brings versatility. He can play the three, or the four. He can play inside. He can play outside. He can shoot the three (career-best 41 percent in 2016-17).

Amir Johnson brings durability. He has averaged 78 games played the past five seasons. Given the injury uncertainty in the Sixers’ frontcourt, this is not insignificant.

Amir Johnson brings rugged defense. Where Jahlil Okafor played the patrolman waving cars through, Johnson will be the spike strip thrown across the lane. He will do the dirty work bumping, grinding and pushing opposition bigs off the block. It’s his calling card.

Most of all, Amir Johnson, 30, brings leadership. He came into the NBA straight from high school in a bad decision that worked out. A second round pick, Johnson played just 11 games his first two seasons with the Detroit Pistons.

Most players in this situation would likely fade away, felled by scant playing time, dwindling opportunities and the lure of a few hundred thousand dollars in their bank accounts. I don’t know the details of his story, but Johnson obviously persevered and made it.

That he did it by making himself a defense-first player only adds testimony to the strength of his character. I am guessing that Johnson has seen it all and will be an immense resource to Fultz and the other baby Sixers.

We were unsure about you, Bryan Colangelo. At times, you look and act too much like a villain in a bad "Die Hard" sequel.

But even the hardiest Process Trusters have to admit it: you’ve aced this offseason.