Phillies Primed for a Huge Year (and that includes December)

Why are these guys smiling?

The game held no playoff implications and really no significance whatsoever when the Phillies took the field Aug. 19, 2017 at AT&T Park in San Francisco.
Losers of six straight, the Phils were predictably bad at 43-77 and nearing the end of yet another dreary road trip. Powered by a sixth-inning grand slam by the immortal Ty Kelly, the Phils won 12-9. And they won the getaway game the following afternoon as well.
It didn't register as anything noteworthy at the time, but I am calling it now: Aug. 19, 2017 is the date the Phillies turned the corner. They would go 7-6 the rest of August, 15-13 in September and 1-0 in October.
Most importantly, the front office kept the Mo going through the offseason. Carlos Santana adds a big stick to what should be a legitimately good offense. The Phils scored 358 runs in 75 second-half games, and if they don't surpass 750 runs scored in 2018, I'll be stunned.
By comparison, the 2016 Phillies scored 610 runs. Buckle up, folks, this rebuild is chugging into third base. Now we enter a pivotal phase -- how do MacMiddleTak keep taking even bigger steps forward on and off the field through 2018?

Ready to Win

The lineup is drawing the attention, but the Phils are made to win now elsewhere as well.
I talked in the previous post about the suddenly flush Phillies' bullpen. It's unusual to see a second-division team sporting such a strong relief corps.
Defensively, the squad should range into the gaps like Bruce Springsteen on a stage riser --  particularly up the middle, where SS JP Crawford, future 2B Scott Kingery and CF Odubal Herrera all have outstanding quickness to the ball.
Starting pitching is young and unproven, but there is hope that more than one young pitcher joins Aaron Nola in the rotation of the future.
So let's talk goals and it starts with wins. Yep, for the first time in five years or so, the Phillies' win total is going to be crucial. And it has nothing to do with contending.
But they need to post 75 wins or so to prove to free agents that they have the franchise moving toward playoff baseball. The Cubs are a good analogy here. In 2014, they confirmed they were a team on the rise by boosting their win total from 66 to 73.
A modest jump for sure. But with Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Hendricks, Kyle Schwarber and other blue chippers in the mix, the Cubs were clearly putting something special together.
It was enough to convince Jon Lester, who signed a six-year, $155 million deal. The Lester addition is the one that catapulted the Cubbies to 97 wins in 2015 and a World Series ring a year later.

This Might be Our Guy

I think there's a free agent in the 2019 group who could do the same for the Phillies. No, it's not Manny Machado or Bryce Harper.
The Phils should forget about those guys and aim their bank account at SP Dallas Keuchel. He would be the ace this rotation needs and the champion this clubhouse wants.
Downsides? He'll be 31 by then and likely still repped by Scott Boras. However, Keuchel didn't break through until he was 26 and he enters 2018 with just 984 ML innings. Better still, he's a control pitcher with a late movement that induces weak contact. He should age well.
As for Boras, he likes big numbers, so we give him a big number. After the frigid free agency of 2017, a record seven-year, $225 million deal should put us in the room.
And Keuchel seems resigned to moving on.
RP Pat Neshek said this week the Phillies reminded him of the 2015 Astros.
It makes sense to steal their ace and resemble them even more in the coming years.

Do the Phillies Even Care About Starting Pitching?

Vince Velasquez

By the time you read this, the Phillies might have already signed a veteran, free agent starting pitcher to join the endless parade of low-ceiling, Joe Blanton-alike prospects.

The fan base is certainly getting anstey to see it happen. Over the past few days, Andrew Cashner (Orioles) and Jaime Garcia (Mets) have signed reasonable two-year deals. Either one would have filled the Phillies' need for a proven rotation arm.

So who else remains in the SP bargain bin? It turns out, quite an array of options. Klentak & Co. can opt for a 30-plus hurler on a one-year deal such as Scott Feldman or Jeremy Hellickson (Side note: anyone else amazed that Hellickson is just 30 years old?).

Or they can dive in with a three-year deal, presumably at a cut rate. Jake Arietta is the name on everyone's list here, but it would take three years and $90 million (IMO) if the Phillies remain steadfast against any deals longer than three years.

Righties Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn could be had for a much lower number, one assumes.

Then there's the reclamation route, and it's a list of one for me. Chris Tillman enjoyed
substantial success pitching in the hitter-heavy AL East for several years before cratering to a nightmarish 2017 (1-7, 7.84 ERA).

There's no use dissecting Tillman's secondary numbers looking for clues. When you're that bad, every number is bad. But he's just 29, and a move to the NL might be a career-saver.

Bottom line is somebody will be signed to take some innings and hopefully provide some stability. But the starting pitching plan 2018 is pretty clear: give the ball to Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta, Zach Eflin, Ben Lively, Jake Thompson, Mark Leiter and maybe Thomas Eschelman.

These guys have peeled off the prospect label and are moving through their mid-20s. Most of them have at least two years pitching parts of a Major League season.

A team should never give up on a prospect until at least three years in the Bigs. It often takes longer than that. The aforementioned Arietta owned a 5.23 ERA after four years with the Orioles.

But most of our prospects project as back-end starters. I say that to indicate this is likely the last chance for many of them. You don't win championships by waiting five years for a starting pitcher to deliver on his league-average potential.

Certainly the Phillies have done everything they can to support these young starters. The lineup and the defense greatly improves by swapping out Freddy Galvis and Tommy Joseph for JP Crawford and Carlos Santana.

Yes, they will be throwing to young, often poor defensive catchers, an unavoidable circumstance. That the backstops are already being drilled hard on pitch framing and pitch calling is revealing.

And look at this bullpen. The Saturday signing of lefty Fernando Abad adds to a deep mix of good-to-excellent relievers that include Adam Morgan, Luis Garcia, Pat Neshek, Tommy Hunter, Edubray Ramos and Hecter Neris.

I can't imagine a sub-80-win team with a better bullpen. It's very clear the Phils are creating an environment designed for these young starters to succeed.

I think it is crucial that three of them emerge to join Aaron Nola as rotation members going forward.

That will enable the Phillies to push ahead with phase two of Operation Championship during the offseason.

Stay tuned.

Could Rhys Hoskins Bat Leadoff?

Rhys Hoskins

Former Phillies' managers Larry Bowa and Charlie Manuel were perpetually stalked by lineup experts.

Fans frequently interrupted Manuel's public meals with their lineup tips. Talk radio hosts caught on and the lineup shakeup became regular programming from 2002 to 2008.

By far the hottest take: moving Bobby Abreu to the leadoff spot. A marvelous hitter, Abreu excelled in all the third-hole hitter traits -- power, speed, average and on-base percentage.

That last one captivated us. In nine years with the Phillies, Abreu walked 947 times, stole 254 bases and compiled a .416 OBP.

That's about as great as it gets for a leadoff man. Yet it never happened. Background whispers circulated that Abreu didn't want to do it, while the managers claimed the offensive gains would be offset by the loss of BA's power from the three hole.

Whatever.

Old-school thinking still dominated the way lineup cards were made out during those days. It doesn't any longer. Gabe Kapler is the new sheriff and comes with an iPad full of radical analytical ideas.

If the 2018 Phillies came with its 2005 roster, Bobby Abreu would bat leadoff. If you follow that logic, Rhys Hoskins should be a candidate.

In 50 games, Hoskins clubbed 18 homers with a .618 slugging percentage. But he also walked an Abreu-like 37 times for a .396 OBP.

The big first baseman did nearly all of his damage batting cleanup -- the traditional spot for a lumbering power hitter. Hoskins is not swift on the bases, a point of divergence from the Abreu comp.

Still, some analytical folks favor batting your best hitters high in the lineup so they get as many at-bats as possible. It makes sense and I would definitely make sure Rhys batted in the first inning of games (as long as he picks up where he left off).

Slotting him leadoff might seem a little wild, but it isn't a new idea. The Milwaukee Brewers batted Eric Thames leadoff 16 times late in the season. Thames swatted 31 homers, stole 4 bases, but walked 75 times with a .359 OBP.

So the profile is similar, but Thames doesn't get on base nearly as well as our man Rhys. For what it's worth, Thames only hit .210 with a .329 OBP from the leadoff position.

There is no record of Hoskins batting leadoff and why would there be? He's a power hitter. In 62 plate appearances leading off an inning last year, Hoskins drew 14 walks (vs. 12 Ks) for a healthy .387 OBP.

Our comparison is incomplete without mentioning that Milwaukee elevated Thames amid significant desperation. They simply did not have a decent leadoff hitter. The Phillies, on the other hand, have one of the best in 2B Cesar Hernandez.

Leading off the past two years, Hernandez contributed a steady and strong .372 OBP. One flaw from 2017: in 124 first-inning leadoff at-bats, (Cesar missed significant time with an injury), Hernandez hit just .216 with a .298 OBP.

In my opinion, hitting leadoff is about jumping the opponent from the first pitch and getting a lead on the board. The Phillies were not really strong in that area all those many years Jimmy Rollins led off, and they weren't very good at it last year.

Will Kapler shake things up?