No, The Phillies Probably Aren't Signing Machado or Harper

Popular opinion in Philliesland these days has the squad holding another year of tryouts for the youngsters, keeping the best, and signing Manny Machado or Bryce Harper to a megadeal in the 2018 offseason.

Boom.

Only that probably isn't going to happen. I mean the first part is a given, but realistically, the Phils will likely have to aim lower in their return to big-time free agency.

I'll return to that momentarily. First, an explanation.

Yes, the Phils have the GDP of a small country's worth of cash to spend. What they don't have is any kind of winning atmosphere.

And it does matter. Let's face it, as long as starting pitchers two through five remain some mix of Eickhoff, Velasquez, Thompson, Pivetta, Eflin and Lively -- the squad is heading for another 90-loss season.

That would make it four straight. Of the 35 biggest contracts ever handed out in Major League Baseball, none has been signed by a team that lost 90 games even twice in a row.

I looked at every contract from Giancarlo Stanton's 13-year, $325 million deal to Carl Crawford's seven-year, $142 million pact.

Only twice has a team coming off a 90-loss season signed one of those 35 megadeals. Both of those teams had some variables not present with these Phillies.

Let's look at those two contracts:

* Alex Rodriguez signs a 10-year, $252 million deal with the Texas Rangers (2001). While the Rangers were coming off a 71-91 season, it was a bit of a fluke. They had won 95 games the previous year.

* Robinson Cano signs a 10-year, $240 million deal with the Seattle Mariners (2014). Seattle was also coming off a 71-91 record when they lavished cash on Cano. However, the Mariners had signed Felix Hernandez to MLB's 18th largest contract the previous winter (seven years, $175 million), so they had one of baseball's best pitchers in place.

That's it.

The money always gets all the attention. But lots of teams have lots of cash. A winning situation is obviously a big part of the equation as well.

And it's not just the Yankees and Red Sox signing these megadeals. Teams signing the top 35 contracts include the Giants, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, Twins, Tigers, Orioles, Reds, Nationals, Rockies, Rangers, Marlins and Mariners.

There are some reasons for hope. Repped by Dan Lozano, Machado is said to want to set a salary record. That makes him very similar to Rodriguez and Cano.

In fact, absent the Felix signing, the Phils sort of resemble the pre-Cano Mariners. That Seattle franchise had lost at least 95 three times in the previous six seasons.

As for Harper, he simply loves playing at Citizen's Bank Park. Harper has 12 career homers there, the most of any road park.

But most likely, the Phils will have to aim lower and absurdly overpay. Think of that potential deal as the Jayson Werth signing that enabled the Nationals to take that step forward and in later years sign Stephen Strasburg (No. 18 contract; seven years, $175 million) and Max Scherzer (No. 11; seven years, $210 million).

OFs Charlie Blackmon and A.J. Pollack are among those second-tier options that would greatly improve the ballclub.

What say you?

Cookin' on the Hot Stove

Now that our favorite little baseball team has hired superstud Gabe Kaplar as manager and his coaching staff is in place, it's time to look at the roster.

It seems like the hot stove is starting to smolder and we're likely to see some cooking this week. The Phillies are an interesting free agent player, as Fangraphs noted last week. Do they or don't they? Or do they halfway it?

With the books completely scrubbed, the Phils have just $37 million or so to pay out this year. This is a big-market franchise with a $180 million payroll as recently as 2014. That was the same year the team inked a $2.5 billion TV deal with Comcast.

Somewhere in Phillies Kingdom there is a big pile of money to spend. Logic says it's in a vault at Citizen's Bank.

Let's sort this out. Options include spending short-term, or long-term, signing their own players to extensions, or waiting until 2018 and going hard at Harper, Machado or others.

Or they could do a combination of those things -- or maybe all of them. This team might be the most flexible franchise in MLB.

I'm going to break our potential moves into three main categories:

* Come Back One Year! -- Phillies are not likely to seriously contend for three years. So few expect them to be bidding on the big fish in this pool.

But if they can get someone who they feel will be an important piece in 2020, they should definitely try to sign him.

Unfortunately, that's a small pool. A starting pitcher like Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn. Forget about Giancarlo Stanton -- that ain't happening, nor should it.

Odds: 6-1

* Do The Opposite -- GM Klentak is certainly going to sign some players, we know that much. Most likely, they are going to fall into the supporting player category. Our needs list is headed by a couple starting pitchers, a couple bullpen pieces and perhaps a backup OF.

I have interest in OF Jon Jay here, although he appears close to signing with the Mariners. On the mound, Chris Tillman is a buy-low guy and I love taking a flyer on Drew Smyly. He's coming off Tommy John, so won't be ready until the All-Star Break, or perhaps a little earlier.

But Smyly has a 3.78 ERA in the AL, and he's a lefty at 28 years old. Leftys have a long history of blooming in their late-20s. The Phillies have let a few of these guys get away over the years (JA Happ comes to mind), so this would be a chance to get one back.

Might take two years and $10 million. But that's a lottery ticket worth purchasing. The only downside to this fit is Smyly's home run rate. He gave up 32 bombs in 2016, but he kept the ball in the park much better in earlier years.

Odds: 1-1 (Players will be signed here)

* The Upside-Down Pen -- Here's my wild-card strategy. If Klentak comes up empty with Lynn, Cobb or any other significant starting pitcher, why not turn to a bullpen strategy?

In short, I'd rather spend $50 million on contracts for Brandon Morrow and Bryan Shaw than spending $75 million on a fourth starter Mike Leake/Jeremy Hellickson type. Of course, they won't be able to sign both Morrow and Shaw, but maybe they get one and keep shopping.

I just think a beefed-up bullpen gives you so many options. It really fits the trend that winning teams are using today, and the Phils have a little bit of a foundation with Hector Neris, Luis Garcia and Edubray Ramos. An average rotation backed up by a parade of hard-throwing rightys won Kansas City a ring not long ago.

If the Phils take a big step forward, they can hang on to their pen pieces. If not, they would be very attractive at the trade deadline. Most importantly, the money invested is virtually a non-issue. I think the Phils would happily send $10 million along with a stud RP in exchange for a couple strong prospects.

Odds: 4-1

Phillies are entering an exciting phase of the rebuild. They can go in a dozen different directions. Of course, next year is likely to generate the real fireworks.

Until then, the good news is we should see plenty of action this year. And the better news is it seems Michael Saunders has retired.