Hall of Famer Greg Maddux once said "the best pitchers have short-term memory and bulletproof confidence."
Both qualities are nearly extinct in the Philadelphia Phillies' pitching room. To be perfectly blunt, the Phillies are screwed at the present point and time.
To recap, Gabe Kapler's squad entered the season with five SPs and another six Major League-ready (or close) starters at Triple A Lehigh Valley.
As the squad bears down on game 100, every one of those 11 pitchers has taken a step backwards. Some have taken a couple steps.
The comprehensive futility is downright stunning. One wonders if the organizational pitching philosophy is to blame, or if the young pitchers were never that good to begin with.
Let's rundown the (not) Elite Eleven, then discuss why the Phillies are screwed:
1. Aaron Nola: No worries here, but he has regressed from No. 1 starter status one year ago (17-6, 2.37 ERA). After a rough start, Nola has been better lately, but this team needs him to be far better than a 3.77 ERA. Most concerning is his career-high walk rate (3.8), which sat at 2.5 coming into the year.
Worst-case scenario: Maybe he's just a No. 3 starter.
2. Jake Arietta: Bone spurs might be an asterisk here. But the numbers are down: (3.96 ERA to 4.40), (.254 opposing BA to .280), (1.29 WHIP to 1.45). At 33, Arietta is a back-end starter for one more year.
Worst-care scenario: He has elbow surgery and is even less effective.
3. Zach Eflin: For much of this season, Eflin was the only bright spot. He wiped that out with his last four starts (23 ER, .385 BA against, 7 homers allowed, 9.90 ERA). Overall, Eflin's hits per nine, fielding-independent pitching, WHIP, K/9 and homers/9 are all worse than 2018.
Worst-case scenario: Eflin is never consistent enough to be a legitimate ML starter.
4. Nick Pivetta: A nightmare season. Sent to LV for a month, then banished to the bullpen this week. A 5.74 ERA, 10.2 hits per nine, 1.493 WHIP.
Worst-case scenario: We're living it.
5. Vince Velasquez: I cringed when Kapler moved Vinny to the bullpen. He is not the guy to start, then relieve, then return to starting. The numbers are predictably poor (career-worst 5.88 FIP and 2.5 homers/9).
Worst-case scenario: Not mentally tough enough to stick.
6. Jerad Eickhoff: Nice comeback story that quickly descended into hell (5.71 ERA, 6.51 FIP, 2.8 homers/9).
Worst-case scenario: Wastes a great curveball due to poor fastball command. Triple A SP.
7. Cole Irvin: Nice debut, then pounded relentlessly in 27 ML innings (7.24 ERA). Triple A numbers down sharply (2.57 to 3.76 ERA, 7.5 hits/9 to 10.5, 7.3 Ks/9 to 5.9).
Worst-case scenario: Fastball neither fast enough, nor controlled enough, to pitch in the ML.
8. Enyel De Los Santos: Was poor in limited ML time last year (4.74 ERA, 3.8 walks/9); absolutely dreadful in a similar run this year (7.36 ERA, 4.1 walks/9).
Worst-case scenario: Opts to pitch in Korea rather than move to a relief role.
9. Drew Anderson: Never much of a true prospect, Anderson seemingly put himself in position to get a chance this year with a strong spring training coming off a 2.37 FIP in 12.2 big-league innings in 2018. It hasn't worked out. In six early innings for the Phillies, he gave up 5 runs. At LV, Anderson regressed (3.87 ERA to 5.77, 2.5 walks/9 to 5 walks/9). Not currently pitching and I have no idea where he is (injured?).
Worst-case scenario: Is never heard from again.
10. Ranger Suarez: The guy with the cool name had an outstanding 2018 season (2.74 ERA in 21 starts) split between AA-AAA. Had a 5.68 ERA in seven LV starts this year before injuries necessitated his call-up. Is pitching OK out of the Phillies bullpen in sporadic mop-up situations (3.21 ERA).
Worst-case scenario: Mediocre loogy.
11. Jojo Romero: After a decent season in AA last year (3.80 ERA), hopes were high for Romero at LV. He cratered to a 9.64 ERA in seven starts before being sent back to AA (5.23 ERA in 10 starts).
Worst-case scenario: Never appears in the majors.
Screwed
You're the manager, dear reader. Pick five 2020 starting pitchers from the carnage above. Realistically, the Phillies have Nola, a rapidly declining Arietta and a hope Eflin is seriviceable.
So just reset the rebuild, right? Wrong. Once John Middleton took on $450 million or so in position-player salary, any rebuild went out the door.
The Phillies are financially committed to win now. Earl Weaver believed the "key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals and three-run homers."
The three-run bombs are there and the fundamentals can be taught. Now the Phillies need the pitching -- and desperately.
They have a couple choices, and the cost is going to be high.
- Trade for a controllable starter, such as Robbie Ray, Mike Minor or Marcus Stroman. All three will be under contract through 2020. The prospect cost will be very steep, and the competition fierce.
- Sign a Free Agent (or two) in the offseason. If I am an agent for Zach Wheeler, Alex Wood or Jake Odorizzi, the Phillies' pitching implosion is a utopian scenario. Middleton will likely be in a defenseless position and forced to throw a wad of money at one of these names.
The Phillies have no choice but to expend a lot of resources to upgrade the pitching.
Desperate times are here.
