Roster Review 1-10: Nice Game, Pretty Boy

10. Odubel Herrera, OF -- I could write a book on this one. Let's start with a recollection: I was watching a game very early this year and at a crucial moment in a late-inning comeback, Herrera struck out on a pitch that went to the backstop.

My reflex emotion was panic that Odubel would not run to first. Now in fairness, he did hustle it out and I think we won that game. My point is I don't even question whether Cesar runs. Or Rhys. Or Nick. Or virtually anyone else on the squad.

With Odubel, you always have to question whether he will execute the obvious baseball play. Most of the time he does; sometimes, he doesn't. When the team is 66-96, it's an issue that passes with a visit to the manager's office. When you're contending for a playoff spot, it's a different deal.

I wish I knew how Jake, Aaron, Carlos, Tommy and Rhys feel about Odubel. That might reveal how this plays out. But I think an exciting, low-cost player like this has strong value to a small-market team like the Rays, Royals or Padres. Don't rule out an offseason trade here.

On the field, Odubel already has career highs in homers (21) and RBIs (65). But overall, he's been absurdly inconsistent. After hitting .361 through May 17, Herrera is hitting .223 with a .653 OPS since.

Three more years on a very affordable contract, with two team options to follow.

9. Seranthony Dominguez, RP -- Still adjusting to the relief world, but when it's there, this young man is a game-ender. As in, when he comes on the game is over.

One of the best fastball-slider combos I've ever seen. Again, when he has it, he brings No. 1 at 98-99 and it not only moves, it moves late. Add the low-90s slider with sharp break, and it's almost unfair to the hitters.

He's putting up 11.8 Ks per nine, with a 2.76 FIP and just 29 hits allowed in 40.1 innings. Opponents are hitting .163 with a .516 OPS.

A weapon. Has the potential to become one of the very best late-game relievers in baseball with a full offseason to get acclimated to the role.

8. Zach Eflin, SP -- 

7. Nick Pivetta, SP -- 

6. Vince Velasquez, SP --

Let's do these three together -- and you can group them any way you want. I've ordered them every possible way over the past two weeks. Now I give up.

The youngest at 24, Zach was lights out in June -- not so much lately. Has 6-7 fewer starts after beginning in Triple A. A decent 3.86 FIP, with 8.4 Ks and 2.4 walks per nine. He is under team control for four more years. Has the stuff to be a Kyle Lohse-type starter.

Pivetta has a good FIP at 3.66, and he is under team control for five seasons. Nick gives up some homers (21), but the strikeout (10.7 per nine) and walk (2.7) rates are dazzling. In fact, all three stats are reminiscent of former Phils' power righty Curt Schilling. A 2.2 WAR.

If style and stuff are your thing, you want Vinnie. He has allowed the fewest hits (7.7), with 10 Ks against 3.6 walks per nine. A 2.9 WAR. VV is the oldest at 26 and under team control for three more years.

Each player experienced dazzling highs and debilitating lows this season. But there's been a lot more good than bad. Most importantly, they have stayed healthy for the most part.

Get used to seeing them. These three are going to start a ton of games the next three years.

5. Cesar Hernandez, 2B -- It's been a strange year for Cesar Augusto Hernandez. He will set career highs in homers (11) and stolen bases (18) and has a chance to walk 100 times and score 100 runs. As the leadoff man, he offers intriguing speed and on-base skills, with some decent power.

But his season went south a bit after fouling a ball off his foot in June. Cesar is hitting just .228 in the second half. Worse, his defense is suffering from the same malady that has infected the entire squad.

With a nod to his standing as an established player, we're going to give Cesar a pass this year. Under team control for two more years.

4. Maikel Franco, 3B -- The Jim Plunkett of the squad. After joining the Raiders in 1978, Plunkett went from, in the words of Tommy Prothro, "the best pro QB prospect I've ever seen" to a benchwarmer who threw 15 passes over two seasons.

Then injuries left Oakland with no choice but to plug in Plunkett, and well, you know the rest. That might be a tad dramatic in comparison to Maikel, but when he was benched in mid-June, that was supposed to be curtains on Franco's Phillies' career.

Instead, IFs Pedro Florimon and JP Crawford were both seriously injured. Franco went back in by default. And finally, we began seeing the production and promise foreshadowed in 2015.

In his last 62 games, Maikel is hitting .292 with 13 homers and an .865 OPS.

3. Jake Arietta, SP -- On June 3, the listless Phils dropped another game  at San Francisco, their sixth loss in eight games. Afterwards, Arietta ripped into the defense, the strategy, the effort, the attitude and left no doubt about his feelings.

When a World Series and Cy Young winner speaks, it has an impact on the locker room. The team would struggle for a few days more, but soon ripped off 17 wins in 24 games to take over first place.

On the field, Jake caused panic among the saber set with his declining 7 Ks per nine (down from 8.7 in 2017). Otherwise, his season is virtually a repeat of his final one with the Cubs: 10-9, a 3.61 ERA and a 4.20 FIP.

A rotation stabilizer and strong team leader. Here through the 2020 season.

2. Rhys Hoskins, OF -- This guy gets it. Always smiling, working, improving and encouraging. Earlier this year, Hoskins had a 14-pitch at-bat that ended with a rocket into the centerfield seats.

Rhys hits like a middle-order power guy (30 doubles, 29 homers), yet gets on base like a leadoff hitter (77 walks, .359 OBP). At 6-foot-4, 225, already patrols the dugout like it's his team. Seemingly accepts pressure and responsibility and asks for more.

If the Phillies achieve greatness, I think Rhys is the one we are going to look back upon with special fondness. After all, 5th round picks are not supposed to become franchise pillars. Hoskins' stunning rise is giving the team rebuild a huge boost.

1. Aaron Nola, SP -- Undisputed No. 1. One of the most valuable young players in the game. Legit Cy Young and MVP candidate. Future $300 million pitcher.

On the mound, Nola has such a tranquil demeanor that contrasts nicely with Hoskins' fiery personality. These two are the perfect pair to lead the squad into the future.

The numbers are sublime: 16-4, 2.29, a 9 WAR.

Two Nola points, one on the field and one off:

* He has earned complete and absolute trust in the big moments. Earlier this year, he gave up a one-out, eighth-inning double in a 1-1 game at Fenway Park vs. the mighty Red Sox. Red-hot Mookie Betts and tough lefty Andrew Benintendi were due up. At 100 pitches, virtually any other starter would have been removed. Aaron retired both in five pitches.

The scenario repeated itself in an Aug. 23 game. This time, Nola held a 2-0 lead against the Nats with two on and two out in the eighth inning. This time, the dangerous Bryce Harper stepped in. Five pitches later, he stepped out a K victim on a 95+ fastball.

The great ones get tough outs and Nola has done it all year.

* This is just a character story from a The Athletic early this year. In April 2016, Nola's parents and brother were in town to see him pitch and the outing was decidedly unsatisfactory. Aaron adhered to his traditional postgame routine watching video.

He lost track of time and kept the family waiting for two hours. His father snapped at him when he finally appeared. Everyone was in a foul mood.

The hour was late when Nola pulled out of the player's parking lot. Still, about two dozen kids remained and called out for Aaron to sign. His father was sure he would pass, given the late hour and having been tagged for seven runs in five innings.

Instead, Nola stopped the car, got out and signed every last autograph request.

The Phillies have a long way to go before they'll be ready to win a postseason series. But they have two of the hardest ingredients to find in Nola and Hoskins: a No. 1 starter and a lineup anchor.

And both are just 25.

March 28, 2019 can't come fast enough.

Roster Review 11-20: I Think I'm A Lot Like You, Only Successful

Our roster breakdown hits the sweet spot with the teens 11-20. Here we see a lot of prospects breaking out, solid performing starters and a couple surprises.

Again, my ranking is based equal parts on the season performance and the player's expected fit on future Phillies' squads.

Enjoy.

20. Luis Garcia, RP -- Underrated member of the Phils' bullpen. Garcia has pitched to a 3.53 FIP since the start of 2015 (203 games). The traditional 3.83 ERA looks kinda blah this year, but Luis lowered his always troublesome walk rate for the fourth straight year (from a wild 8.4 to a decent 2.7). His K rate (9.7) set a career high by quite a bit.

A good fastball/slider reliever under control for two more years.

19. Carlos Santana, 1B -- Carlos has become a polarizing player. So this is probably a good place to reiterate my criteria. Contracts have nothing to do with my ranking. Specific to Carlos, his batting average has nothing to do with his ranking. I don't even look at it.

I do look at OPS, and a lengthy midsummer swoon has Santana looking increasingly disappointing. His .759 is nearly 50 points below his career average, and below average for first base. The Phils rank 19th in first-base WAR.

Santana is 32 and is here two more years. They may be years of continued decline. Seems Carlos has trouble turning on and driving good fastballs now.

Love the walks and the OBP; Need to see more power. Big-time extra credit for the leadership he is showing this young team.

18. Justin Bour, 1B -- Very fitting to have Bour ranked near Santana since they are so similar. Bour: 20 homers, 71 walks, .228 batting average, .759 OPS; Santana: 20, 92, .222 and .759.

A late bloomer, Bour is two years younger and under arbitration control for two more seasons. He could take playing time away from Carlos next season. Something to watch.

17. Edubray Ramos, RP -- Ramos appeared in 101 games the past two seasons, and pitched to a strong 3.10 FIP with a 10.7 K rate. The reliever who offers consistency is a rare thing and Ramos brings a high-level consistency.

He has a live fastball, a swing-inducing slider and is under team control for four more seasons. A valuable piece.

16. Jorge Alfaro, C -- I've been watching baseball and the Phillies since the 70s. I can't recall ever seeing a player with greater tools and potential, yet be so very, very far away from putting them to full use than Alfaro.

Jorge leads NL catchers in range factor and caught stealing, and is second in assists. This despite playing a bit less than full-time. He is also tops in passed balls and SBs allowed.

At the plate, he's posted a strong (for a catcher) .744 OPS in roughly the equivalent of a full season over 2017-18. He's also walked just 19 times against 159 Ks. Atrocious.

This could be a very long road. During his third season of a Hall of Fame career, Yadier Molina posted a .595 OPS. It wasn't until his eighth season in the league, after Molina was an established defensive stud, that the bat blossomed.

The good news is Jorge seems attentive, hard working and with a passion for the game. Stud starter Aaron Nola loves throwing to him, so that says something.

15. Enyel De Los Santos, SP -- Just 22, De Los Santos is one of the biggest surprises of the season. His 10-5, 2.63 season in Triple A vaulted him to near the top of prospect lists. Word has it the Phils would not include him in trade talks for Machado. On the come.

14. Scott Kingery, IF -- I remain a huge believer in Scott Kingery. Yes, the stats will show a very poor season, but that is hardly unusual for rookies. On defense, the Phils believe in his ability to play SS. It is a tremendous accomplishment to become proficient while converting to such a crucial position at the ML level.

On offense, Scottie is hitting .307 ahead in the count, with an .930 OPS. However, while his teammates are roughly equal parts hitting ahead and behind in the count, Kingery's at-bats are ending with the pitcher ahead three times as often.

That will change, or it should change, as Scott learns the pitchers and gets more experience. He has a great, team-friendly contract and an impressive power-speed combo that is going to play well for many years to come.

It would be a bold move, but I wonder if the Phils consider including 2B Cesar Hernandez in trade and turning the position over the Kingery.

13. Victor Arano, RP -- Maybe this is too generous for a non-closer, (mostly) non-setup relief pitcher. But it's in recognition of just how well Arano has pitched and how many times he has saved Kap's ass this year.

Pitching (at times) in a different role every outing can test even the most icy relievers. But Arano has performed with aplomb, appearing 59 times over the past year, with a 2.49 ERA, a 2.71 FIP, 10 Ks per nine and 2.6 walks. Just great stuff.

Under team control for five years. Future closer? Viva la Mexico!

12. Wilson Ramos, C -- His 2018 performance is undeniably great: 15 homers, 62 RBIs, .867 OPS and an AL All-Star berth with the Rays. Post-trade, Ramos won a game for the Phillies with a triple and two doubles in an important 7-4 win over the Red Sox.

I have him here because I think Ramos resigns with the Phillies and plays a big role the next few seasons.

11. Nick Williams, OF -- Nick is one of those easily overlooked players who play an important role on winning teams. He draws little attention, hits few highs or lows, and won't bat in the top of the lineup.

But you plug him in the six hole and at the end of the year Williams will finish with 20-25 homers, 80+ RBIs and flirt with an .800 OPS. Williams is a picture of consistency, much valued in baseball. He is hitting .259 with 9 homers at home and .263 with 8 homers on the road.

After a slow start while platooning with Aaron Altherr, Nick is hitting .274 with 16 homers and an .815 OPS since May 1.

An athletic young man who turns 25 next week, Williams is not a free agent until 2024. A nice asset.

Next Up: The best we got.

Don't Despair, Phils' Phaithful

The Phillies seem to be fading from contention, exposed as a pretender not quite good enough to play at a postseason level.

That can be one of the most painful realizations for fans riding that exhilarating journey of unexpected contention. There is certainly a lot of frustration with the Phils about deals not made, players not benched and, ultimately, wins on paper not won on the field.

It seems like a good time for a time out to regain our perspective on just how good this franchise is right now. In fact, the best part of the season is yet to come.

Once free agency kicks off in November, all eyes are going to be pointed at Philadelphia. While the Braves appear to be a fearsome force stocked with young stars and a loaded farm system, they do not and will not match the Phillies' budget.

With history and informed projections as our guide, it's fair to assume the Phillies will outspend Atlanta by 20-25 percent.

So there's that.

But there's more. The best way to field a consistently competitive team is to through strong player development. And it gets harder once you start winning and signing free agents.

The Phillies are winning with about 15 players who represent their young core -- from Victor Arano in the bullpen to Aaron Nola, Cy Young candidate.

It would be easy to assume they stripped the cupboard bare -- and midway through the season it appeared that way. Many of their remaining prospects were struggling.

Since then, a couple of very promising trends developed down on the farm:

* The Ones -- From 2015-17, the Phillies drafted three consecutive OFs in the top 10. And as June dawned, all three were looking like poor choices. In some cases, very poor.

But things are looking up for Cornelius Randolph, Mickey Moniak and Adam Haseley.

Since July 1, Randolph is hitting .323 with 20 walks vs. 27 Ks for Reading. That includes a .402 on-base and a .449 slugging. Having just turned 21, Randolph might be back on track.

Since July 7, Moniak is hitting .293/.348/.482 for high-A Clearwater. Mickey has 15 walks vs. 25 Ks, a dramatic improvement in strike-zone management. The power is finally appearing, with 15 doubles, 2 triples and 4 homers. A young 20, the 2016 No. 1 overall pick is emerging a bit.

Since July 4, Haseley is hitting .325/.403/.516. That includes his final five games at Clearwater and the rest in Reading. Very strong across the board, with 8 homers, and 17 walks to 21 Ks. At 22, Haseley stands a good chance of making his Major League debut sometime next season.

Obviously, we need to see more, but what looked to be a downright depressing run of wasted top 10 picks looks a whole lot better today.

* A New Stud -- There is a young man just 17 years old who is destroying Gulf Coast League pitching. And teen phenom Luis Garcia was signed as a strong-glove, light-bat shortstop.

Instead, Garcia is fast becoming the Phils' most intriguing prospect. Through 43 games, he's hitting .369/.433/.488. For a 17-year-old player, these are insane numbers. With 15 walks and 21 Ks, Garcia shows remarkable strike-zone judgment.

The Phillies' Sal Agostinelli appears to have done it again. The international scouting director has an incredible eye for talent. Garcia, who is shooting up prospect lists, was acquired for a $2.5 million signing bonus in 2017.

All of this adds up to the No. 9 farm system on former GM Jim Bowden's list last week. That is just one opinion, but it is a strong endorsement of the organization's player-development process.

The Phillies are not just trying to win today, or next season. A strong organization top to bottom that wins for generations (think Cardinals) is what every fan base craves.

While it remains to be seen whether these Phillies can achieve that lofty status, their immediate future looks to be incredibly bright.

And that should make these tough losses on the field a little easier to stomach.

Roster Review 21-30: What Kind Of Person Are You?

We continue our breakdown of the roster 40-to-1 with the 20s. Here we see a lot of prospects on the way up, along with a few veterans clinging to their big-league lives.

Again, my ranking is based equal parts on the season performance and the player's expected fit on future Phillies' squads.

Enjoy.

30. Austin Davis, RP -- Really came out of nowhere, as relievers are wont to do. Kaptain Gabe has taken to pitching Davis indiscriminately, at times for two innings. It has yielded far more good than bad.

Davis has pitched much better than his 4.13 ERA. His fielding independent pitching mark is a fine 2.61. He's allowed one home run, and is striking out 10.5 batters per nine.

More importantly, Davis has a confident coolness about him. Could stick as a key member of the pen.

29. Andrew Knapp, C -- Former second-round pick. Switch-hitter. Highly respected. Scuffling offensively and defensively. Owner of the season's most dramatic hit.

On July 1, Knapp hit a walk-off homer in the bottom of the 13th inning vs. the Nats. The Phils were going to send a position player out to pitch the 14th, so the dinger likely turned an L into a W.

But the arrival of Wilson Ramos sent Knapp to Triple A. Phils might seek a catching upgrade, squeezing out Knapp.

28. Adam Morgan, RP -- Continues to have Kap's trust; Continues to post shaky numbers. Morgan was thought to have found a home in the bullpen after a sterling second-half 2017. But consistency has eluded him in 2018.

He is currently enjoying his best stretch, a 2.70 ERA since June 25. His FIP mark is 3.98, a career best, but hardly an asset. Might be eclipsed by one of the intriguing lefty relievers in the system, such as Kyle Dohy or Tyler Gilbert.

27. Roman Quinn, OF -- These are heady days for the mercurial Quinn. Although it seems Roman has teased us with his game-wrecking potential since the John Felske era, he is actually just 25.

Quinn is in his seventh season, his seventh straight season marred by a serious injury. We are well past the time he needs to prove he can stay healthy. His electric speed is giving him a chance to help a team make a playoff run. He needs to take advantage of it.

26. Aaron Altherr, OF -- If this is the bubble OF region of our list, then it makes sense to put Altherr and Quinn together. No player disappointed more in 2018 than Aaron, IMO.

After a strong 2017 that included 19 homers, 24 doubles, an .856 OPS and a 2.2 WAR -- all in two-thirds of a season -- Altherr seemed poised for a butt-kicking age 27 year. Inexplicably, it never got off the ground. AA was finally sent to AAA July 23, where he is not doing much better.

Not sure what happened here. But a 6-foot-5 frame gives pitchers a lot of room to find a strike-zone weakness. Maybe Altherr was never as good as he was good, nor as bad as he was bad. Can play all over the OF and likely to remain as OF depth.

25. Hector Neris, RP -- Et tu, Hector? Yes, even Hector went south this season as the surging Phillies seemed to field as many disappointments as surprises.

After three solid-to-strong seasons leading the bullpen, Neris faltered early and frequently in 2018. He was finally demoted June 29 with a 6.90 ERA.

Hector recovered the sinker at Lehigh Valley, and has K'd nine of 14 batters  in five strong appearances since his return. Too good not to be in future plans.

24. Ranger Suarez, SP -- Needs to be traded to Texas and develop control issues, just for the headline potential ("Walk Him, Texas Ranger"). Probably not. Instead, we hope he remains and one day throws a shutout for the Phillies ("The Lone Ranger").

We know what Ranger is about right now. Just 22, he's put up a 2.81 ERA in 19 starts split between Reading and Lehigh Valley. Bonus points for being left-handed.

23. Tommy Hunter, RP -- It's not that Tommy has been bad, it's that he hasn't been good. A 3.72 ERA (3.32 FIP) is okay, but not what we're paying $18 million for to be sure. The contract isn't his fault. Somebody offers to pay you a lot of money, you accept.

Probably spends 2019 as an average-to-good reliever, then goes elsewhere.

22. JP Crawford, IF -- A lost season. That dreaded Mendoza Line has taunted JP at every stop this year (.143 in A ball; .083 at AAA; and .194 with the Phillies). Season marred by a broken hand.

But if we're being honest here, outside of a strong six-week stretch in AAA last year, Crawford has done nothing to justify his lofty prospect status of recent years.

With the Phils' leadership team apparently set to offer Manny Machado a contract equivalent to the GDP of some small countries, JP's future here is murky.

Has the talent and versatility to be a nice utility infielder. Not going anywhere.

21. Pat Neshek, RP -- With Hunter, part of the twin, free-agent, bullpen reinforcement plan. The almost-38-year-old Neshek is also here another year and then ... retirement?

Still a strong, unflappable reliever who gets key outs from the sixth inning to the ninth. A short-term force, but a force nonetheless. Penalized for missing three months to injury.

Next Up: We get into some starters and key prospects with Nos. 11-20.

Roster Review 31-40: The Name's Mitch

The Phillies have taken gigantic strides forward in 2018, due largely to core players becoming solid-to-good big leaguers. There's even a pair of superstars.

We'll name them later. First, let's start this 40-man roster analysis at 40 and work our way to No. 1. The Phillies continue to have a deep farm system, despite graduating several prospects to the big club.

These 40-man roster spots are crucial, and some of these players are going to lose their places. But those who remain will form one of the best rosters in the game.

The following ranking is based on two criteria: the player's 2018 season, and their importance to the organization moving forward.

40: Mitch Walding, 3B -- Hopefully, Mitch comes up in September and gets a few knocks in a big league uniform. So far, he is 0-14 with 10 strikeouts. You know it's bad when the announcers are opening rooting for you to dribble a ball into an unoccupied area just to get that hit.

What they know is Walding is not a major league player and odds are low that he ever appears in another game after this season. He made it onto the 40-man and into a few games after a series of freak injuries to Phillies' infielders.

I am betting that Walding, 26 on Sept. 10, will be removed from the roster after the season. Now go get some hits, Mitch!

39. Aaron Loup, RP -- I confess that I am not sure what Loup is doing here. He is a 30-year-old LOOGY and not a very good one (4.32 ERA in 205 games since 2015). He is not off to a good start with the Phillies and his career is seemingly nearing its sunset. A free agent to be, he won't be resigned.

38. Mark Leiter, P -- 2017 Mark Leiter offered two intriguing qualities: his bloodlines and his ability to swing between starting and relieving with ease. But when you looked closer, Leiter -- son of Mark Leiter and nephew of Al Leiter -- wasn't very good in either role.

Add in a significant injury in 2018 and Leiter is on the bubble. Leiter posted a 4.96 ERA in 2017 and pitched to a 5.40 this season. He turns 28 in March and might be in a different organization by then.

37. Jose Taveras, SP -- Taveras started 2017 in A ball and ended it with a 1.32 ERA in seven Triple A starts. While never much of a prospect, his rangy 6-foot-4 frame, combined with his eye-popping performance, earned him a spot on the 40-man.

2018 brought opposite fortunes for Taveras. A shoulder injury limited him to 16.1 innings and a 5.51 ERA to date. He'll be 25 in November and fringe prospect pitchers with shoulder troubles are not good 40-man candidates. Jose needs a few good outings to remain in the picture.

36. Drew Anderson, SP -- Anderson is a guy you root for, and a poor man's Kyle Kendrick. Like KK, he is a righty who doesn't really throw it hard enough, or bend it enough to be a big league pitcher.

But Kyle had some crazy mental toughness, and a work ethic that ticked up a notch once he started following Roy Halladay around. That Kyle Kendrick had a 10-year big league career is something that still amazes me.

What I am saying is Drew Anderson probably isn't going to make it. He's appeared in four games over two seasons for the big Phillies and has a 10.80 ERA. He's given up 14 hits in 8.1 innings.

Drew, 24, is still fairly youthful and having a decent season at Triple A. He might hold onto his spot for another year.

35. Jesmuel Valentin, Utility -- Versatility is a wonderful thing, and Valentin brings it. In 46 games with the big club, he's appeared at five different defensive positions and pitched an inning.

Unfortunately, Jesmuel hasn't played any of them very well. He has a .562 OPS and gave up three runs in his inning on the mound. Expendable, especially with Crawford and Kingery offering the same versatility and doing it better.

34. Yacksel Rios, RP -- Rios is an intriguing arm, one that suddenly began throwing 98 this year after previously averaging 94. Still, the results are somewhat mediocre: a 4.87 ERA in 44.1 innings.

But I think you try to keep a guy who averages 98 if you can.

33. Asdrubal Cabrera, IF -- Cabrera added some power to the lineup after being acquired at the trade deadline. But his defense is suspect, and the post-trade OPS is just .621.

Asdrubal is a free agent and it's hard to envision a scenario where he is a Phillie in 2019.

32. Ben Lively, SP -- Ben is Drew Anderson with a stronger pedigree. While he continues to dominate Triple A, Ben has yet to demonstrate he can be a capable Major League starter.

Injuries set him back this year, as did a 6.86 ERA in five early starts. But last year, Ben put up a 1.2 WAR in 15 starts. Turns 27 in March. Probably sticks as Triple A starter inventory for a few more seasons.

31. Dylan Cozens, OF -- Still not sure what the Phillies have in Cozens. But he is a young 24. His initial big league playing time has not gone well (2-20, 14 Ks). At Triple A, Cozens improved his K/W rate as the Phillies asked, boosting his OBP from .301 to .343.

Interestingly, his slugging percentage also climbed, from .418 to .504. Probably not a future Big Phillie, but you can't give up on a terrific athlete with 90 home runs the past three seasons.

Next up: We slot several prospects and break down a pair of struggling OFs with Nos. 21-30.

Make It A 40

Wilson Ramos played 727 games prior to Wednesday night and tallied one career triple.

The lumbering catcher started his first game for the Phillies having missed a month with a hamstring issue. Needless to say, we weren't expecting a three-bagger. But when a Ramos liner split the right-field gap and took a crazy bounce off the wall, the big man rolled into third base standing.

Maybe it was a sign. Ramos would add two doubles and become the first player with three extra-base hits in his Phillies' debut since Ed Freed in 1942.

No. 40 never looked so good on a Phillie.

To be sure, Ramos was the difference between a crucial win and a costly loss. After the game, I saw a tweet from a giddy Phils' blogger claiming the team should ink the free-agent-to-be Ramos to a new contract.

The following day, I started thinking about that tweet. It's not a crazy idea.

Let's review the market conditions for Wilson Ramos to the Phillies:

* The Phils have a young catcher they like very much in Jorge Alfaro. But Ramos is 31, so he wouldn't be a super-long-term solution. And you need two backstops.

* The Phils are committed to doing short-term, higher-dollar deals. My hypothetical guess is they'd like to go two years with Ramos, but it will likely take three.

* Ramos is injury prone, which might dampen his market. He's exceeded 435 at-bats just twice in a nine-year career.

The current top of the catching contract market is a three-year, $60 million extension Yadier Molina signed last year. Ramos is good, but he's not Yaddy, offensively or defensively.

Wilson is playing under a two-year, $12.5 million deal and has banked $25 million in his career. This will be his last significant contract.

So what would it take? Let's say the Phils offer three and $35 and they settle at $38.

What do you think?

Kaptain Fantastic

On Oct. 29, the Phillies made Gabe Kapler the 54th manager in team history. I've been around for 16 of them, pledging my allegiance to the team during the Danny Ozark (1973-79) era.

Danny skippered the team to three straight playoff appearances, and several hilarious pressers.

"Even Napoleon had his Watergate," DO once told bemused beat writers.

Since then, there have been a lot of forgettable Nick Leyvas and Ryne Sandbergs manning the Phils' dugout. Terry Francona was the one who got away.

And now Kapler. By most accounts, the decision came down to Gabe or organizational man Dusty Wathan. I wanted Wathan.

Dusty was a catcher. He had managed successfully at five levels for a decade in the Phillies' farm system. He was especially close to the next gen core players like Rhys Hoskins and Scott Kingery.

Dusty was my guy. But Kap was GM Matt Klentak's guy, reportedly wowing the team in his second interview.

It didn't start out well. The nadir came quickly, with Kapler calling a cold pitcher in from the bullpen early in a 15-2 game three drubbing. It was an embarrassing, amateurish look for a guy with virtually zero managing experience.

"Failure is not fatal," Winston Churchill once said. "It is the courage to continue that counts."

From the ashes of Kapler's early failures emerged a quality leader in many ways. Two qualities have impressed me in particular:

1. Communication. We have heard Kap tout his communication skills from day one. The value of it can get lost I think. After all, who can't communicate?

Kap seems to have a very disciplined approach: ALWAYS lavish praise on players in public; give them straight talk behind closed doors.

The first part is obvious, but I have little evidence for the second. But when Maikel Franco was benched in June, it was plainly reported that Franco met with skip and "was told he wasn't going to be playing as much."

If this is his communication plan, it's a good one. Players like to be told to their face what is happening. They might not like what they hear, but they will respect it.

What they won't respect is a manager calling a player out in the media because they saw Bill Parcells do it and it worked for him.

You have to be comfortable with who you are and that appears to be Kap's greatest strength. After all, could you take a picture like this if you weren't?

2. Flexibility. Thinking you have all the answers is the surest way for an inexperienced leader to find trouble. Being a leader does not mean you don't need help.

President John F. Kennedy called his predecessor for a extraordinary meeting following the Bay of Pigs fiasco. Dwight D. Eisenhower was a legendary war hero and popular president from the opposition party. Yet, JFK knew Ike could help him and he drew on that counsel during his deft handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

To the casually familiar, Kap presents as an arrogant guy. So I feared early on that this could be a problem. His hiring of Wathan as third base coach should have clued me in that I was mistaken.

The opening game was thrown away after Kap removed starting pitcher Aaron Nola after just 68 pitches. The squad's best offensive player, Odubel Herrera, didn't start because Kap's match-ups didn't dictate it.

Nola wasn't happy. Herrera wasn't happy. The bullpen blew the game. WIP phone lines filled with anxious fans agitated by Kap's unorthodox philosophies.

Then something happened: Kap tossed many of his new baseball ideas out the window.

A couple weeks ago, Nola stood on the mound at Fenway Park at 100 pitches in a 1-1 game in the eighth inning. After a leadoff double, all-world Mookie Betts strode to the plate with one out, to be followed by bad-matchup lefty Andrew Benintendi.

The Phils' bullpen finished July with the best ERA in baseball. Yet Kap never moved as the Phillies' ace retired both on five pitches.

To be sure, it hasn't been all puppies and champagne toasts inside the Phillies' clubhouse. Nick Williams, Jake Arietta and an unnamed player have all taken shots at Kap in interviews.

But this, too, gave the skipper another chance to show off his confidence and leadership skills.

I don't know if the Phillies will complete this surprise season and make the playoffs.

But Gabe Kapler just turned 43 two weeks ago and it's beginning to look like Manager No. 55 might have to wait a while.

It's Time To #BeBold, Kap

In a subplot on my favorite episode of my favorite show, Jerry Seinfeld is frequently the recipient of good news and bad news simultaneously.

"I have two friends, you were up, he was down," Jerry tells Elaine at one point. "Now he's up and you're down. You see how it all evens out for me?"

"You're even Steven!" Kramer says triumphantly.

And so it is for fans of the Nicks and the 2018 Phillies.

As the calendar flipped to June, P Nick Pivetta owned a fairly sparkling 3.26 ERA. At the other end of the dugout sat OF Nick Williams, who carried a paltry .215 batting average as late as June 12.

The ensuing six weeks brought the ups and downs that accompany the life of a pro baseball player on the fringes.

The steadily hot Williams batted his way to a .304 average with seven homers since June 12. He's drawn 14 walks the past six weeks, a super-promising development for a guy sentenced to repeat Triple A after earning just 19 walks the entire 2016 season (against 136 Ks)

Owner of the sweetest swing on the squad (in this writer's opinion), the arrow is pointed decidedly up for the affable Texan.

The best thing we can say about Nicholas Johncarlo Pivetta the past two months is he continues to overpower hitters. And that may provide some keys to his future.

Pivetta K'd 31 in 21 July innings. The flip side is a 6.84 ERA in 10 starts since June 1. A pitch sequence in the bottom of the third inning Friday night highlights the problems this Nick is having.

With a runner on second base and two outs, Pivetta overpowered the dangerous Scooter Gennett to get ahead 0-2. Gennett was very late on a 97-MPH four-seamer and managed a weak foul. Alfaro/Pivetta next opted for an 81-MPH slider that, well, didn't slide all that much:

Pitch No. 4 was slammed to center to plate a run.

If you're thinking that was an anomaly, it wasn't. The next inning found Pivetta facing runners at second and third with no outs. But he painted the corner with two hard four-seamers to get ahead of Mason Williams 1-2. The bottom of the order followed, offering a decent chance to escape the inning,

And then:

Williams clubbed an 85-MPH slider over the right-field wall, a game-deciding blow as it turned out.

Pivetta's problems are pretty clear by now -- the secondary pitches are not sharp enough. The good news is the fastball is an explosive weapon. But opponents are seemingly trying to survive vs. the hard stuff until they can get a hittable slider.

Regardless of what the future holds for Pivetta, he cannot remain in the rotation of a team in first place by 2.5 games on July 28.

I think he has strong closer potential. Most pitchers gain 3-5 MPH after moving to the pen and going all-out for 15-20 pitches. Nick could bring 100-degree heat, while paring down his mediocre secondary stuff to one pitch -- be it a slider, curve or something else.

The Phillies have a long history of rookie starting pitchers making a late-season impact, from Marty Bystrom's 5-0 stretch run during that 1980 dream season to Kyle Kendrick going 10-4, 3.87 in 2007.

We've seen a little of Enyel De Los Santos and Ranger Suarez and both won their debuts. Cole Irvin (9-3, 2.93) is another Lehigh Valley pitcher worthy of an opportunity.

It's time for Cap'n Kap to pick one and make it a permanent change.

Phillies Target Ranger

On May 12, 2006, I sat in a bar watching a heralded 22-year-old southpaw make his Phillies debut in Cincinnati.

Cole Hamels was known for two things to that point in his baseball life: breaking his hand in a Clearwater beer brawl, and, a bit over a year later, dazzling Triple A with an 0.39 ERA in 23 innings.

Then he flew to Cincinnati and surrendered one hit to the Reds over five innings. He was not dazzling, however, allowing five walks.

About all I remember was thinking that Hamels just looked like a Major League star. Of course, he was a first round pick and was a highly rated prospect for three years prior to Cincinnati.

On Thursday, another 22-year-old lefty will make his Phillies' debut in Cincinnati. While perhaps not as heralded, Ranger Suarez shares some parallels with Hamels.

Cole made three AAA starts and allowed one run. Suarez has made three AAA starts and allowed one run (0.57 ERA).

Both rocketed to the top rung after dominating at lower levels -- Suarez with a 2.76 ERA in 12 starts at hitter-friendly Reading.

I don't know if this Suarez fellow can match Hamels' career. For sure, the Carora, Venezuala native kind of sneaked up on us. Signed in 2012, Suarez first caught attention last year and is the No. 9 Phillies' prospect at MLB Pipeline.

A couple interesting factoids, one you surely heard about and one you likely didn't:

* Suarez will be the first left-handed starter for the big Phils in 267 games. I grew up watching Lefty Carlton dominate with the slider. Terry Muholland threw the first no-hitter I've ever seen. And, of course, Hamels went on to be a World Series MVP.

This has been a long portside dry spell and it will be good to see a lefty toe it up again, even for just one day.

* Suarez will be the first player named "Ranger" to ever appear in a Major League game. Baseball Reference tells me the forgettable Rudolph Ranger appeared in 35 games for Albuquerque in 1961. Alas, that Ranger, a first baseman, was not very good (.215 batting average).

So you might say Suarez will be the lone Ranger. If he doesn't choose either the "William Tell Overture" or "South Bound Suarez" as his music, I will be disappointed.

Trade Wars Are Easy To Win

In a transaction that generated a few ripples, the Houston Astros demoted closer Ken Giles to Triple A Fresno Wednesday.

Apparently, Giles, owner of a 4.99 ERA, offered some R-rated feedback to manager A.J. Hinch as he departed his relief outing Tuesday. He entered with Houston holding a 4-0 lead and is the primary reason they would lose 6-5 two innings later.

The outing and the demotion are just the latest rocks in what has been a difficult road for Giles. Fans are turning on him. A headline on a Houston-area column: Like it or not, you haven't seen the last of Ken Giles.

Earlier this year, he blew a save against the Yankees and did this:

Giles, of course, is only in Houston because Phillies GM Matt Klentak traded him there. That trade is one of several player swaps that are turning into huge wins for the Philly side. The trade route is the primary reason the Phils sit in first place at a stunning 53-40.

Let's break them down:

1. Giles for Vince Velasquez (Dec. 10, 2015):  This deal also sent pitchers Brett Oberholtzer, Mark Appel and Thomas Eshelman to Philly. But the first two are out of the organization, and Eshelman owns a 6.32 ERA in Triple A.

This is a Giles-for-Velasquez deal. And maybe Houston is satisfied from their end. Giles did save 34 games and pitch to a 2.30 ERA last year as the closer on a World Series winner.

But his other two seasons were and are clunkers, and the entire relationship feels like it is nearing the end. I would not be surprised to see Kenny shipped elsewhere soon.

As for Velasquez, the Phils endured their own difficulties with the mercurial righty -- mostly with health and emotions. I don't believe he's ever punched himself or cursed out a manager.

I wrote earlier this year about Bad Vinnie fading from view. While not quite a reliable stud yet, things are trending that way with VV. Toss out a 10-run stinker vs Milwaukee June 8, and Velasquez has a 2.52 ERA over his last 11 starts (60.2 innings).

I will always prioritize starting pitchers who throw 180 innings over relievers who throw 65. The Phillies control Vinnie until 2022. He is a solid, young asset and this deal is a solid W for Klentak.

2. Cole Hamels and Jake Diekman for a bunch of Rangers (July 24, 2015): Ruben Amaro's last-act, lame-duck deal is looking better for the Phillies with each week.

The Phils netted OF Nick Williams, C Jorge Alfaro and Ps Jake Thompson, Jerad Eickhoff, Alec Asher and Matt Harrison.

To be sure, the Harrison addition was a concession to Texas, as the Phils picked up the $33 million on his contract.

The Phils gained three controllable pieces in this deal. Williams (.273, 23 HRs, 89 RBIs) looks to be the RF of the future, while Jerad Eickhoff (3.87 ERA in 65 starts) will at some point reclaim his rotation spot.

But Alfaro is the guy the $33 million bought, in my opinion. A hitter with immense power, Alfaro leads the National League with 17 runners cut down stealing. Overall, there's a sense that he is about one-quarter of the player he will be in five years.

This three-for-one deal sent the Phils' rebuild surging forward. Ironically, Texas is now looking to trade Hamels in a similar, albeit much less return, deal.

3. The One-Offs. One particular trade area the Phillies, under both Amaro and Klentak, are thriving, it is the short sale. The veteran who can help another team down the stretch, or plug a hole until a prospect is ready, swapped for a mid-level prospect.

While the players going out rarely have much left to give, the return has been enormous.

For P Roberto Hernandez, the Phillies got P Victor Arano (33 games, 2.38 ERA). For SS Jimmy Rollins, they got P Zach Eflin (7-2, 3.15). For P Jonathan Papelbon, they got P Nick Pivetta (4.58 ERA, 113 Ks in 96 innings).

And most recently, Klentak imported P Enyel De Los Santos (9-3, 1.89 ERA in Triple A) for SS Freddy Galvis.

****

It is a difficult thing to be so consistently successful on the trade front. It is even more remarkable for this front office, given how disappointing their top 10 draft picks have been the past four years.

Whether it's luck, or just shrewd advanced talent evaluation, the Phillies' positive trade balance to date is worth remembering as they consider sending prospects out for veteran help.

Minor Thoughts: What the Hell is Happening at Reading?

Among the Phillies' nine minor league teams, none is a more fascinating stop than Reading.

For many of the best prospects, it begins the final stage of their minor league education. Many of them go to Triple A for just a short period. I've seen some players get called to the big club straight from Reading.

The Reading Fightin' Phils celebrated their 50th year in 2017, and is tied for the longest affiliation in Major League Baseball.

But Reading is fascinating for another reason as well. It delivers offense that skews performance about as much as Coors Field.

Many a Phils' hitter has slugged his way to Reading fame. The trick becomes figuring out who is really a prospect and who isn't.

Darren Ruf (38 homers in 2012) wasn't, but Ryan Howard (37 homers in 2004) was. Phillies fans were enamored with Matt Rizzotti (40 homers in 2010-11), but he wasn't.

Dylan Cozens (40 homers) and Rhys Hoskins (38) thrilled Reading fans with their long ball duel throughout the summer of 2016. Hoskins is on his way to becoming a star in Philadelphia, but Cozens probably isn't going to be around long.

You get the idea. If you're going to spend any time analyzing the Phillies' minor hitters, you learn to read the home/road splits when they move to Reading.

In 2016, for example, Cozens hit 29 of his 40 dingers at home.

That brings us to the present campaign, where a pair of former third-round picks -- who are not considered prospects -- are having fine seasons.

2012 draftee Zach Green (.297, 16 homers, 52 RBIs) and 2013 pick Jan Hernandez (.296, 10, 43) are anchoring the middle of the R-Phils lineup. They are joined by powerful catcher Deivi Grullon (.287, 12, 40)

Here's where it gets odd. None of the three players is showing any homefield advantage. In fact, Green has 14 doubles and 11 homers on the road, and just 9 doubles and 5 homers at home.

Hernandez's homers are split evenly, but he's hitting .328 away and just .267 at home. Similarly, Grullon is a .301 hitter on the road and .273 at home.

This is very unusual for Reading and I am not sure what to make of it. I have yet to see any of the three generating any prospect buzz, so we will have to see. But Green, 24, Hernandez, 23, and Grullon, 22, are all young enough to play their way into future plans.

On the flip side, Reading can be a punishing stop for pitchers. And this year is no different. I find the Reading hurdle to be a useful mental challenge for pitchers, many of whom are facing adversity for the first time.

JoJo Romero is fighting that adversity and generally doing well. After a rough start, his ERA sits at 4.06 after 17 starts. The home/road splits are predictably glaring: 5.15/3.21.

Lefty starter Ranger Suarez solved the Reading riddle with ease. After starting the season with a home bomb (3 innings, 9 hits, 7 runs), Suarez made four more home starts, giving up 7 runs in 26 innings, while pitching to a 1.76 ERA in seven road outings.

Just 22, Ranger has moved on to Triple A.

Meanwhile, a pair of young sluggers are new to Reading and already jacking bombs out of First Energy Stadium.

Darick Hall, 9 homers in 34 games, and Austin Listi, 4 homers in 20 games, will have to show they can hit on the road as well.

If not, they will always have Reading.

Es Hora De Conseguir Machado

I am all in on a deal to bring Manny Machado to Citizen's Bank Ballpark.

To this point, I've been lukewarm on the trade route, generally favoring taking our shot at Manny in free agency. But things, as they say, have changed considerably.

I heard a proposal today that makes sense and a deal I think Matt Klentak should make: SS JP Crawford, Triple A SP Enyel De Los Santos and a lower-level minor leaguer or two go south.

I am not sure if Baltimore can beat this deal or not, but it is fair. Crawford has been a top prospect for several years now, and still projects as an above-average SS at worst. De los Santos is starting the Triple A All-Star game and sports a 1.81 ERA in 15 starts.

My pro-trade stance came about for a couple reasons:

1. We get a head start. I've heard several fans say we should just wait until free agency and sign Machado without giving anything up. Sounds so simple.

Yet, it isn't. The only thing we know for sure is Manny isn't going to Baltimore. Otherwise, if he makes it to free agency, it's a free agent free-for-all. And the Phillies' money isn't any greener than the Yankees', Cubs' or Dodgers' cash.

On the other hand, if we get Machado in the house for even three or four months, I think it makes a difference. He gets comfortable, makes new friends, likes the area and enjoys playing baseball again. Most importantly, the difference between losing every night before a comatose crowd and winning in front of high-energy Philly fans makes an impression.

The Phils are going to meet the market price. Giving Manny a taste of what it's like to play here might be the difference.

2. We can make the playoffs. This is the clincher. We need Machado now, so there's a price to pay for that need. I would not have believed the postseason was a viable goal at the start of the season, or even three weeks ago.

But the Phils tore through their brutal 15-game stretch at 10-5. If the season ended today, they would be a wild card. I previously wrote about the Phils' relatively soft second half, and my expectation they can win 45 of 80 games. So far, they're 2-0.

They won 45 of the first 82. All these numbers mean they are realistically moving into the 88-90-win neighborhood.

I believe that two-and-a-half months of Manny Machado are worth 3 wins minimum -- or enough to lock down that playoff spot. This is not just a case of targeted player being an upgrade. This is a player who is an absolutely perfect fit for what this team needs.

Cap'n Kap's squad would go from a SS with a .607 OPS to one with a .937.

And in case you're wondering, August is Manny's best month for batting average (.310), homers (33) and RBIs (102).

But he owns a .174 average in seven postseason games. The Phillies haven't seen a postseason since 2011.

Maybe player and team can come together and repair both of those numbers.

'It Takes Political Courage'

As of Tuesday morning, I had never heard of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

On Wednesday morning, I saw her on Morning Joe, CBS and CNN, and she was the subject of every other tweet. And why not? Ocasio-Cortez is photogenic, she’s young, she’s Hispanic and she just knocked off the fourth-ranking member in House Democratic Party leadership. 

She has a smile that makes you believe America is going to win every contest it enters. She spent $207,000, all from individual contributions, while Rep. Joe Crowley spent $3.4 million.

This is like the Harrisburg Heat beating Brazil on the pitch.

So why am I not sure whether to congratulate Ocasio-Cortez, or feel sorry for her?

She has a great story: the place she tended bar just one year ago still has her picture on its home page. Ocasio-Cortez also has the positions one would only adopt if they felt free of any expectations of victory.

Medicare for all, free tuition, guaranteed work and housing. In other words, unabashed Socialism. This is big-time stuff.

"I just felt like at this point we have nothing to lose,” Ocasio-Cortez said in an interview. “We have nothing to lose! And even in a race that just seemed impossible, as it was even three months ago, even on long odds, that doesn't mean we shouldn't try.”

It’s these positions that are drawing attention today. Most of them are untenable in the current climate. It’s going to make life very difficult for Ocasio-Cortez and it’s going to put her in the crosshairs of some very nasty people.

Everyone will be coming at her now – from establishment Democrats to lobbyists to opposition Republicans. Some will want to befriend her, some will want to change her, and all will want to use her.

My coffeemaker hadn’t even turned off this morning before Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was already rushing to label Ocasio-Cortez.

“It was a stunning development. The energy in the Democratic Party is self-avowed socialists, open borders," McConnell said. "I think the Democrats are going hard left. If you look at the presidential primary, voters in 2020, it seems to me that like 35 or 40 percent were self-identified socialists so I think it's a general election problem for them in a number of places ... and a real drag on the party in terms of appealing to American voters who I don't think want us to turn into a European Socialist country.”

Ocasio-Cortez Is 28 years old. Twenty-eight years ago, McConnell was on his way to his second U.S. Senate election victory. How is this a fair fight?

Heartwarming Victory

There is definitely something heartwarming in her success. It perfectly captured that moment where all of the bad things I am referencing were swept aside. The purity of a 28-year-old Latina bartender knocking off a 10-term congressman is everything promised in Thomas Jefferson’s vision of America.

Now we wake up to wonder if the rug will be yanked out from beneath us. After all, those demons of democracy were just swept aside, not eliminated.

Ocasio-Cortez is the only one who can deliver on the hope and promise of her place in history. Is she up for this? And are we wrong to expect too much?

"It doesn't take 100 years to do this," she says in her brilliant campaign ad. "It takes political courage."

Indeed it does.

Frankly, maybe I’m afraid to trust her. Twenty-five years ago, I watched “The War Room” and was ready to change the world with Bill Clinton. I can’t remember when and where he disappointed me and maybe he really didn’t (although DOMA was pretty bad).

Maybe it’s just a realization that even good people face wretched ethical choices while trying to accomplish anything in politics. It’s an arena where seemingly everyone has enough money to buy votes and opinions. 

Congress is a place where vision and hope are cruelly stamped out and replaced by cynical survival.

Yesterday, I posted a wonderful line that I keep reading from author Robert Caro describing the late progressive Sen. Paul Douglas’ fight for civil rights: “the hero who had charged up the beach when he was too old to charge up a beach.”

It sounds like Ocasio-Cortez, with all her youthful enthusiasm, wants to be on that beach.

Maybe that should be good enough for now.

The Day LBJ Destroyed Paul Douglas

As I continue to work through Robert Caro’s great works of history, a passage I read yesterday is sticking with me.

I am on Caro’s third of five books chronicling the life and the many contradictions of Lyndon Baines Johnson. Ever the pragmatist, LBJ fought against Civil Rights alongside the racist Southern Coalition for many years. Then, suddenly he was for Civil Rights, and he was for it in a way that changed history.

But the passage I reference came long before that metamorphosis was to take place. And LBJ’s nemesis in this story is Sen. Paul Douglas, D-Ill., liberal lion and decidedly not a pragmatist. It was the summer of 1956 and Douglas was trying once again to get Civil Right legislation past the Southern bloc. Or at least get it to the floor for a vote.

The details are not important, but LBJ, then majority leader, was far too crafty for Douglas. Using a variety of parliamentary procedures and arcane Senate rules, Johnson blocked Douglas at every turn. That led to a showdown that left Douglas meekly vanquished.

Although victorious, LBJ was not satisfied. With the Senate set to take a voice vote on Douglas' futile motion, Johnson suddenly objected and asked for a roll call vote. The effect was to publicly and forcefully humiliate Douglas.

I’ll let Caro pick it up from here:

What I have been thinking is how this peak despondency resembles how many feel in our country at this moment. Many people who think America is at a troubling crossroads.

Paul Douglas carried on, and found salvation out of his greatest despair. The Civil Rights Act of 1957 was followed by the Civil Rights Rights Act of 1960, the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

Sitting in his office in July 1956, Sen. Douglas could not have imagined what the next decade would bring. 

He certainly never could have dreamed that LBJ would be the driving force behind those bills.

Phils-Osophy: The All-Star Edition

Prediction: the Phightins break out of the solo rep column and send two players to Nationals Park for the All-Star Game next month.

Aaron Nola and Odubel Herrera could not be more different and the uniqueness of their individual stories is part of what makes baseball the greatest game.

Let's start with Nola, who is virtually an automatic selection. In fact, were this game being played anyplace other than Max Scherzer's backyard, Aaron would be a strong candidate to start for the National League.

No. 27 has been that good: 8-2 with a 2.55 ERA and ranks in the top 10 in virtually every category. The most important and impressive stat is his 4.2 WAR, second among NL pitchers.

When the Phillies selected Nola in 2014, scouts considered him a polished pitcher and perhaps the safest pick in that draft. His ceiling was low, but his floor was high, the thinking went.

How the crafty Cajun became so much more than that is a remarkable confirmation of pitching as an artform.

Start with Nola's velocity. Twenty-four-year-old pitchers don't suddenly add fast to their fastball, but that's exactly what Aaron did in 2017. Nola finished 2016 with a fastball average of 89.8 MPH. When he started 2017, that number rose to 92.4 MPH.

The numbers have continued to rise across the board. In Nola's first full month as a Phillie -- August 2015 -- he averaged: 90.8, fastball; 76.8, breaking; 82.5, offspeed. This month, those numbers are: 93.2, 79.1 and 85.5.

The crafty Aaron Nola, who came into the league with a host of fluttering and diving secondary pitches, is now a borderline hard thrower. When he wants to be, that is. When he needs it, Aaron can fire a 96 MPH four-seamer.

That's not all. His four pitches have evolved. In 2016, Nola threw offspeed pitches 8 percent of the time. In May 2018, 26 percent of his pitches were of the offspeed variety.

These numbers speak to the stunning progression of Nola's change-up. When he came into the league, Nola had two plus pitches, the four-seamer and the curveball, and a show-me change.

Again, it is somewhat rare for pitchers to develop a plus pitch at the major-league level. Nola's change-up comes with the perfect speed differential and it has late movement.

In short, peak Aaron Nola is in complete command of three plus pitches he can locate in any quadrant of the strike zone. Pitching is an artform and we are watching a gifted artist at work.

The Phillies should give Nola a blank five-year contract this offseason and tell him to fill in the number. He's that good and that important.

Let's talk about Odubel Herrera -- the Human Rain Delay II, the Flipper, He Who Drops His Bat and Stares at Good Pitches to Hit.

Despite all his infuriatingly frustrating quirky habits, the man can hit. Whereas the perpetually placid Nola was a top 10 draft pick and star from day one, Odoobie was decidedly not.

We all know the story: Rule 5 draft pick, big star, bat flipper, big contract, conduit for Mike Schmidt idiocy.

As a hitter, Odubel is inconsistently consistent. His OPS over his first three years ranged narrowly from .762 to .781. Even this year, the maddeningly wild swings in production continue within Herrera's breakout campaign (.869).

From April 5 to May 17, Odubel hit .381 with a 1.041 OPS. From May 18 to June 12, he hit .161 with a .422 OPS. And now he is magma hot again, hitting .472 with a 1.514 OPS his last eight games.

Herrera certainly felt comfortable at Nationals Park last night, ripping four hits and his fifth homer in five games.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Nola spin eight shutout innings this afternoon.

Both deserve to return to the park and represent the National League on July 18.

The Next 15 Games Could Decide The Phils Season

Does it feel like the Phillies are playing one tough game after another these days?

It does and they are.

On May 17, the squad set sail for St. Louis (it was REALLY raining) and a four-game set at Busch. Since then, it's been a struggle as Cap'n Kap's team returned home for Atlanta and Toronto, then a rough 10-game swing through Los Angeles, San Francisco and the Cubs on the way back home.

After facing the NL Central-leading Brewers and the always offensive Rockies, the team is back on the road visiting the Brewers.

The grind is real and there is no letup in this schedule, In fact, it is about to get harder. The next 15 games are against all winning teams a combined 181 games over .500.

The brutal run concludes with seven games against the Nationals sandwiched around a three-game visit by the Yankees.

It's always sunny in the Phillies' clubhouse with the buoyant Kap at the wheel. But let's see how he handles this stretch. The squad has had some injuries, some bullpen struggles, and young players in over their heads it seems. Jake Arietta even got a few rips in on the Cap'n during the miserable West Coast trip.

None of that matters now. The Phils have to win a few of these games. It's put up or shut up time. Their backs are against the wall. They have to give 110 percent. And a several other cliches, too.

But if they can win, say, seven games or so, they will be in good shape. The schedule really opens up after that July 1 game vs. Washington.

The ensuing 23 games are against teams a combined 240 games UNDER .500. The lone winning team in that stretch is the Dodgers, who, when the Phils are decent, don't normally fare well on their annual trip east.

A two-game trip to Fenway is followed by an August schedule featuring 12 games against the Marlins, Mets and Padres.

In fact, the Phillies don't play back-to-back series against winning teams until the calendar turns to September and they back up the Nationals with the Cubbies.

So don't let these 13-2 losses get you down.

It really is a long season.

Phillies Report: Desperately Seeking Offense

I could not have been more wrong in my analysis of the 2018 Phillies. This might not be a bad thing in the larger landscape.

My ego can take it, plus I have experience to draw upon. I had the 2017 Eagles in last place.

To recap, I saw Cap'n Kap's group running a solid lineup out nightly to try and outscore mediocre-to-poor pitching on non-Nola nights. To be fair, that was before we signed Jake the Snake.

But I wasn't the only one. One notable scribe explained that it would take at least three young starters making Justify like strides for the squad to be competitive.

That's exactly what's happened, as Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez and Zach Eflin have been pretty good overall.

The Phils have pitched it. With the bats in hand, however, they've produced about as many big hits as solo Art Garfunkel.

Every single hitter in Sunday's lineup was well below his career batting average, with two exceptions. Scott Kingery is a rookie, and Odubal Herrera has roughly equaled his career .289 batting average.

Unfortunately, since peaking at .361 on May 17, the Human Rain Delay II is hitting .169 with a .204 on-base percentage.

It is too soon to make any dramatic conclusions, of course, but what is known is that new hitting coach John Mallee wants his guys taking pitches and having long at-bats. Whether this is sapping aggressiveness or not is a storyline to watch as the summer drags into the dog days.

As it pertains to the future Phils, the balance of power transfer from hitters to pitchers is a good thing. To note the obvious, when you've been a last-place team for five years, it's good to see anyone develop.

To put a finer point on it, it's harder to find and develop pitching than hitting. Finally, pitching is the more important ingredient. After all, despite the Phils horrific hitting, they maintain a winning record.

I expected us to draft a RHP Brady Singer or LHP Matthew Liberatore, and sign a stud starter like LHP Dallas Keuchel.

Suffice to say, the former didn't happen and the latter is looking less and less a possibility.

The Phils drafted 3B Alec Bohm, probably a better value than any pitcher available. But the bonanza lies in free agency. Either OF Bryce Harper or SS Manny Machado would be a wonderful fit and fill several roles (power, on-base ability, lineup fear) of desperate need.

While the Phils are tough to watch at the moment, unless you enjoy strikeouts and stranded runners, the long-term fit between need and availability is very good.

Of course, I already sorta suggested a hard pass from both Machado and Harper.

That can only mean it's looking pretty good one will be wearing Philstripes next spring.