The Phils at 50

When the Phillies take the field for their 50th game today, they will do so as a first-place squad.

I don't think anyone saw that coming. My own prediction was for 74-88, but that was pre-Jake Arrieta. Since I agreed that Jake is worth three wins, that would put me at 77-85.

It certainly appears Cap'n Kap's group has a chance to go well beyond that number.

When you're going for 30 out of 50, obviously a lot of things are going right. Three things in particular have caught my eye over the last week or so:

1. pitching, PITCHING!, Pitching?: What began spring training as a huge question mark morphed into a gigantic strength.

The starters have a 3.33 ERA, the fourth-best mark in baseball. Nick Pivetta is the revelation from this group -- a young dynamic arm who actually began refining his power curve-high fastball combination last September.

Add a surprisingly effective changeup and vastly improved location and Pivetta looks to have staying power. The 6-foot-5 Canadian has an 0.47 ERA over his last three starts, with 25 Ks and 2 walks.

"I'd say this current level of team success will continue as long as the starting pitching keeps performing as it has," John Kruk said the other night.

"I would agree with that," T-Mac said obediently.

I'm not sure I do. I see an offense that has yet to find any consistency or identity. You have core-order guys like Rhys Hoskins (.167 in May), Aaron Altherr (.190 overall), Carlos Santana (.200 overall) and Scott Kingery (.214 in May, .221 overall) who remain in the struggle zone.

BTW, after slamming 18 homers in his first 34 games, Hoskins is hitting .215 with 6 dingers in nearly half a season. I still believe in Rhys Hoskins, but I sure would like to see him have a good week or two.

Defensively, the consistency is even more elusive. The Phils are regularly spectacular on defense, particularly in center field and catcher. Unfortunately, they are just as often sloppy and undisciplined.

In short, I do think these 2-1 wins could become 6-4 wins as the season drags into the dog days. There's much room for improvement in the non-pitching areas.

2. Jorge Alfaro: Someone asked me the other day how I could be so excited about Alfaro when he still has major holes in his game.

I thought about that and the answer is I'm so excited about Alfaro BECAUSE he still has major holes in his game.

Jorge is already changing games because he can do things no other catcher in the game can. Like this:

I was watching this game and the cameras followed Ender Inciarte into the dugout. The bewildered look never left his face as he sought comprehension from teammates.

Alfaro has the five hardest throws by a catcher this season. He has a howitzer and it is accurate. He is tied for the Major League lead with 10 runners caught stealing. He's nabbed 10 out of 29 overall, but 8 of the last 11.

We are witnessing one of the best things about being a baseball fan: a talented young player realizing he belongs at the highest level. The confidence is growing with each game.

A word about the bat and that sad-looking .648 OPS. Over the past month, Alfaro is hitting .292 with a .773 OPS.

Among position players, Alfaro is third in WAR, ahead of Hoskins, Santana and Franco. This despite starting just 33 of the first 49 games.

We've got a player here.

3. Health: If you're a superstitious Phillies fan, you might stop reading here. The rest of you can continue with admiration and thanks to trainer Scott Sheridan for how healthy the squad has been.

I've been a fan for going on 40 years and can't remember playing the first 50 games with essentially the same starting eight position players, the same five starting pitchers and the same back-end bullpen composition.

Bullpenners Pat Heshek and Tommy Hunter were injured in spring training, as was starter Jerad Eickhoff. And I don't quite consider JP Crawford the starting shortstop yet.

These are the only significant injuries to date.

After the 50th game of 2017, the Phillies had lost Howie Kendrick from the lineup and Aaron Nola and Vince Velasquez from the rotation.

The record was 20-30.

What a difference a year makes.

Will Utley Rise Amid Cano's Fall?

There are no Chase Utley blog posts in my archive, despite my endless inspiration to write a tribute to The Man.

What invariably happens is I get lost watching video clips. There's Utley getting hit in the back during the 2010 NLCS, then casually tossing the ball back to emasculated Giants lefty Jonathan Sanchez.

There's Utley scoring from second base on a groundout versus the Braves. The look on Braves' Manager Bobby Cox's face is epic, as Harry Kalas bellows "Chase Utley, you are The Man!"

Then, of course, there's the five-word speech that will live forever in Philadelphia:

Chase Utley belongs in the Baseball Hall of Fame in my book. But I am obviously biased. I have long understood that five years as the best second baseman (and one of the best players) in MLB might not be enough.

The Man plays Machiavellian baseball: The ends justify the means. Utley is not interested in fraternizing with opponents, is willing to slide a half-second late if it means breaking up a double play, and plays with a tightly controlled intensity. He's been hit by 200 pitches, eighth all-time.

But injuries are the trade-off.

Starting in 2010, Utley began missing chunks of seasons while dazzling American League peer Robinson Cano grabbed the "Best Second Baseman" label. Robby hit .319 and whacked 29 homers that year in the first of seven All-Star seasons.

Admittedly, it was a tough pill to swallow seeing Cano reign as a top second sacker right through 2017. Robby is everything Chase isn't: smooth and languid -- and healthy. Often "too cool for his shoes," as Larry Anderson might say.

He's also apparently a PED user. The news stunned, but at least one ex-Yankee is not at all surprised. Mark Teixeira's comments broke the player code and speak to the frustration level with cheaters inside the game.

Headlines immediately declared Cano's Hall of Fame chances dead. I wonder if Chase Utley's might get a boost by being the anti-Cano.

It's still going to be a tough sell. Cano was regarded as a borderline case before his 80-game ban and his OPS is .848. Utley's is .826.

Of course, Utley has a lot of Utley things to dazzle voters. Like this ridiculous play that might have won a World Series for the Phillies:

To me, Chase Utley's legacy is his incredible baseball instincts. The play above is a perfect example.
Utley the baserunner is another.

I've never equated Chase Utley with blinding speed, or even great speed. He runs well, but that doesn't explain how he ranks No. 1 in MLB history in stolen base percentage.

Chase has 153 stolen bases and been caught 21 times. He has a remarkable aptitude for reading pitchers and catchers and doing everything possible to gain even a slight edge.

This is not an easy skill at all. The Phillies' current second baseman -- the very fine Cesar Hernandez -- is a much faster runner than Utley ever was, yet he has 61 steals and 29 caught stealing in six years.

Chase Utley never led the league in hitting, or home runs, or RBI. He never finished in the top five in the MVP vote. He led the league in runs with 131 in 2006, otherwise, the only bold on his career ledger is the three straight years he led the league in getting hit by pitches (2007-09).

Somehow, this seems appropriate. He won a World Series ring, and hit five home runs in the next Fall Classic.

And The Man was the leader of every clubhouse he resided.

His next, and permanent, residence should be in Cooperstown.

This Feels Familiar, Yet Altogether Different

For the second time in three years, the Phightin' Phillies are 22-15 after 37 games.

That stunning start to 2016 stands out as evidence of how ludicrous baseball can be over the course of 162 games. Those Jeremy Hellickson-led Phils won a remarkable 14 one-run games those first six weeks (look it up). And they didn't even have a good bullpen.

The Phillies did not win another one-run game until June 7. By then, they were already under .500. Even at 22-15, nobody thought the Phils had turned any corners.

They were simply a bad team getting a lot of lucky breaks. Those things even out over 162 and the squad finished up that campaign with the predictable 71-91 record.

This 22-15 feels a lot different. For starters, this team is +39 in run differential, whereas the 2016 Phils were -25.

The current team is 8th in MLB in runs scored and 6th in earned run average. More encouraging, they have developed some welcome depth in key areas.

Seven different hitters have at least four home runs. Starting pitcher Jerad Eickhoff is coming back soon, and might not have a spot.

But it's the bullpen where the depth is most impressive. Young arms like Victor Arano (12 innings, 0.75 era), and Edubray Ramos (15 in, 1.20) are pushing the veterans Adam Morgan (11 in, 2.45), Luis Garcia (15 in., 3.00), and Tommy Hunter (3.86) for the right to set up closer Hecter Neris (14.2 in, 3.68).

The best arm might have arrived Monday when touted fireballer Seranthony Dominguez made his debut. In three clean innings this week, Seranthony showed the 98-99 mph heat and wipeout slider we've heard so much about.

It's almost welcome news that veteran All-Star reliever Pat Neshak will be out another month. General Manager Matt Klentak might be looking to deal from an absurd strength once he does.

Obviously, it's the starting pitching that will tell the story on what these Phillies accomplish. Specifically, the starters that follow Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta. A potential second-half boost resides in Lehigh Valley in 22-year-old Enyel De Los Santos (4-0, 0.84).

There are some signs these Phillies have more to give. The offense is certainly productive, but with a collective .241 batting average that ranks 18th. One would think that will improve.

Jimmy Rollins was in town Monday and the cameras found him for a brief interview. In between the usual cliches, J-Roll dropped some wisdom about how a young team finds a winning formula.

"The winning streaks will come. It's not about that," Rollins said. "But when things aren't going well, can you stop two losses from becoming five losses? In other words, can you play .500 baseball during the rough spots?"

Cap'n Kap's crew roared to a 14-7 start before the rough patch hit. Back-end starters Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez were knocked around, and the pen blew a bad one and lost a couple extra-inning games. A few pesky injuries sent Morgan and shortstop JP Crawford to the DL.

Yet here we are 22-15. They played .500 the past two-and-a-half weeks. Compare that to the Mets, who followed up an 11-1 start with 6-17. And they are -14 in run differential.

The Phils have 125 to go. I am virtually certain they win more than 49.