Sunday, August 27, 2017

Maybe It's Freddy's Team Now, Guys



Freddy Galvis should be a popular player for these down-and-inept Phillies.

He makes flashy plays from shortstop and gets big hits at the plate. He is continually improving and is well respected by coaches and teammates.

More than anyone, Galvis is the guy who keeps getting knocked down, and keeps getting back up to play. He loves the game and wants to play 162.

Galvis should be a popular player. But he isn't.

I'm struck by the number (seemingly all) of Phils fans who have long considered Galvis a bench player starting by default. And now that he's a proven starter, a guy who will be moving on as soon as feasible.

That would be 2019, when Freddy is a free agent. Most fans have him playing out a final year as a utility player, then moving on.

I would not be so sure about that.

I've written about this before, but it's worth repeating: players love Freddy. Coaches love Freddy. He brings an elite-level play (defense) to a club that has almost no elite-level play anywhere on the diamond.

"The guy is unbelievable, man," Aaron Nola said. "I wouldn't want anybody to be at shortstop other than that guy. He's been great for us. He's our leader."

I think there's a good deal of evidence the Phillies are at least open to the idea of committing to Freddy long-term. You have to read between the lines, but the signs are there:

* The Play: Freddy's OPS the past three years steadily climbed from .546 to .645 to .673. and .711 this year. That's the improvement you want to see. 

He has backed up 20 homers and 17 steals last year with 11 and 13 to date this season. More importantly, the K/W ratio improved from 136/25 to a more palatable 93/35.

The defense is electric. Galvis' defensive WAR number is baffling, but he matches Andrelton Simmons stat for stat. And Simmons is acknowledged as perhaps the best defensive SS ever.

Overall, Galvis ranks as the 13th best SS by Fangraphs WAR.

* The Faith: Why are the Phillies so committed to letting Galvis meet his goal of playing 162? A sop to a young veteran? Seems unlikely.

Manager Mackanin and Lt. Bowa are hardly the sentimental types. This certainly looks like a deferential nod to a player who is part of the future.

Mack has issued many challenges to these young Phils, and nobody has met his more than Freddy. Since installed in the second spot in the batting order June 22, Freddy has hit .280 with a .745 OPS in 57 games.

* The Leader: This is a team desperate for a leader and Galvis has filled the role. The comments from guys like Nola and Tommy Joseph and others are sincere.

Some deride the "leader" angle as an old-school idea, but it's not. Baseball clubhouses are no different from Fortune 500 companies. Leadership is a crucial part of success.

The Phillies under Mack/Klentak have shown a consistent willingness to reward those who meet challenges and perform (see Odubal's big contract). Conversely, failure to give effort and perform is met with tough love (Nick Williams, circa 2016).

I think management values Freddy a whole lot more than fans realize.

* The Minors: The final clue comes from Lehigh Valley, where prospects JP Crawford and Scott Kingery are playing different infield positions.

For different reasons it might appear. At second base, Cesar Hernandez has already been discussed in trades. But he's missed a chunk of the season and needs to remain in the lineup batting leadoff to enhance his value.

That's not the case with Freddy. So the Phillies are moving a top prospect to another position just so Galvis can meet a personal goal of starting all 162 at shortstop? I'm not sure that makes sense.

I think the Phils love Galvis for his defense, the stability he brings and the way he relates to his teammates. Most of all, they can hold him up as an example in the clubhouse. Work hard, commit to the team and good things will come to you.

I don't know what the future holds, but I wouldn't be so quick to write Freddy out of the script.

Sunday, August 20, 2017

Rhys Hoskins Isn't Who We Thought He Was





Let's compare two players, both first basemen.

Player A is a 6-3, 225-pound right-hand hitter drafted in the 8th round from Texas A&M who crushed pro pitching from day one. This player was consistently downgraded by scouting services, with Keith Law calling him "a pretty limited player" and "probably a platoon/bench bat."

Even after breaking out with a .314-35-106 in high A, Baseball America rated him the #11 prospect in his organization.

Player B is a 6-4, 225-pound right-hand hitter drafted in the 5th round from California State University who crushed pro pitching from day one. This player was consistently downgraded by scouting services, with John Sickels writing: "above-average power with solid pure hitting skills to match, limited to first base defensively which can be a tough profile for a right-handed hitter."


Even after breaking out with a .320-17-90 in high A, Sickels rated him the #11 prospect in his organization.


Player A is Paul Goldschmidt. Player B is Rhys Hoskins.

Goldschmidt's debut came Aug. 1, 2011 and he put up an impressive .808 OPS with eight homers in 48 games. He has since become one of the best players in MLB.

Hoskins took the field Aug. 10 and to date has four homers and a .957 OPS.

This is a fascinating comparison to me. I think Goldschmidt is almost criminally underrated, almost never mentioned in the same sentence with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper.

Yet, Goldy has five straight All-Star appearances, a pair of Gold Gloves and two second-place MVP finishes. He is likely to win it this year.

To date, Hoskins seems equally able to avoid the spotlight. His monster 2016 campaign was partially overshadowed by teammate Dylan Cozens, who bashed 40 homers to Hoskins' 38.

Hoskins' anticipated call-up was followed by an 0-12 start, just six hitless at-bats from the Phils' record. I still doubt many people have Hoskins among the top three Phillies' prospects.

So why did the scouting evaluations miss so badly on these players?

Obviously, plodding, right-handed, power-hitting first basemen are a dubious lot. Having seen a lot of Darren Ruf and Tommy Joseph in recent years, Phillies' fans know this well.

Perhaps the answer lies in the strike zone judgment. Goldschmidt and Hoskins both put up strong walk totals in the minor leagues. Goldy walked 82 times against 92 Ks in 2011. Hoskins had 64 walks against 75 Ks at Lehigh Valley. He has eight walks and five Ks with the big club.

Joseph, on the other hand, has 54 walks against 177 Ks in two years.

It's that extra millisecond to judge the pitch location that seems to set the better players apart. Or maybe it's a millisecond quicker swing.

Whatever it is, Rhys Hoskins is in good company.