Phillies 2023 season in review

 

Just a few games remain in what looks to be another (regular-season) step forward for the Phightin Phils.

That's not to say it hasn't been an at-times tortuous ride through 155 games to date. The biggest stars seemed to frustrate us the most. Aaron Nola never seemed to figure things out. Thankfully, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper did.

22-27 evolved to 85-69 with a week remaining to get to 90.

Raucous crowds remain a consistently loud presence at The Bank, fans fired up by the 2022 World Series run. Attendance is up 9,700 per game, tops in Major League Baseball.

So what went right, wrong and completely sideways? Let's play four questions:

1. What is the best thing that happened in 2023? This one is pretty easy. The development of young talent in-house is something this organization failed to do with any consistency for the past 15 years. The combination of Brian Barber and Preston Mattingly appear to be turning that around in a big way.

Start with Bryson Stott, a smooth, five-tool infielder already producing at an All-Star level. Challenge a friend to name who leads the Phillies' position players in WAR and you might win a free drink.

But the depth of emerging talent goes well beyond Stott. It is layered throughout the system. Johan Rojas skipped Triple A and is claiming the centerfielder-of-the-future job with stunning defensive stats. Despite just 130 at-bats, Rojas's WAR equals the combined WAR of Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber

Christopher Sanchez leads the pitching staff in ERA, repaying the organization for its multi-year investment of time.

2022 draft pick Orion Kerkering is already in the Phillies' bullpen, while 2020 first-rounder Mick Abel is finishing the year on a heater. OF Justin Crawford and IF Aiden Miller both look like first-round hits from 2022-23.

2. What is the worst thing that happened in 2023? It's tempting to point to the spring training injury to Rhys Hoskins. But the lineup has adapted well. Nola is a frustrating problem. But it might be a good thing to see that decline in the final year of a contract.

Therefore, my most unwelcome development is Andrew Painter and Tommy John. Crushing because it knocked the young man out for 2024 as well. A pill made more bitter by the recognition that it probably could have been avoided. Pumping up Painter's potential rotation spot did nothing but add pressure to a 20-year-old where none was needed. Just unnecessary.

3. What is the biggest offseason decision? The futures of longtime fixtures Hoskins and Nola is going to dominate December media coverage. I would make qualifying offers to both and take the draft pick if they move on. It's a cold business.

I would not be completely shocked if they signed Hoskins to a short-term deal, then traded Rojas or Marsh for a young, controllable starting pitcher. Both are exciting, young OF talents, but it's a better-balanced roster if they could swap one for a similarly talented pitcher.

4. How far will the Phillies advance in the postseason? I will never forget how the 2022 postseason began: Hoskins striking out leading off the 9th inning with the Phils down 2-0. I turn off the TV and storm outside, only to return after J.T. Realmuto strokes a single to left. Several crazy at-bats later, the Phils walked away with a 6-2 victory and the run was ignited.

Could it happen again? It could. But nobody can reasonably predict it. On paper, the Phillies pitching rules it out. It's not nearly good enough.

This run ends in the Divisional Round.

I am officially worried about Trea Turner (there, I said it)

If there was a stat created and assigned to hitters fooled so badly they swing and miss the ball by a foot or more, it might be known as a "fool swing."

This generally happens when hitters are guessing fastball, or think they see a fastball, and level up to meet it in the zone. It also happens to hitters who have lost some reaction time and need to start their swing earlier in order to meet a good fastball.

Trea Turner most certainly leads the Phillies in fool swings. It's a troubling trend for a player who turned 30 years old June 30 and has 10 years and $272.7 million remaining.

Turner is having a terrible first year in Philly pinstripes. But any tendency toward panic is somewhat muted by the Nick Castellanos experience. One year after signing a big contract and flopping, Casty is an All Star.

There is some general confidence among fans and media that Turner will similarly rebound. I am not so sure.

For starters, Castellanos was hit on the wrist May 5 last year, possibly explaining his hitting difficulties. Turner appears fully healthy.

Then there's the strikeouts. Turner's K percentage is trending in a very bad direction: 13.9% in 2020 to 17% to 18.5% to 23.8% this year. Further evidence that Trea is being overwhelmed by the fastball and fooled by the low-and-away breaking pitches.

Power hitters who can't meet a good fastball sometimes go sideways very quickly.

I grew up watching Dale Murphy mash his way to back-to-back MVPs. Then suddenly, at age 32, the magic evaporated. Murph could still hit one out every so often, but good fastballs gave him trouble and he became an average player overnight.

He hit .295 with 44 homers at age 31, then fell off to 24 homers and a .226 batting average a year later.

I don't know enough about hitting to know how to fix Trea. I do know the speed is still really good (21-21 in steals) and I do know that 10 home runs is not a good return on a 24% K rate.

I sorta think he needs a swing change. Perhaps flipping the launch angle craze in favor of a put-the-ball-in-play swing. Something shorter and level that puts more balls in play and takes advantage of the speed.

Trea hit 49 homers in 2021-22 and perhaps he sees himself as a power hitter. At times he certainly looks like a hitter trying to hit a $300 million-worthy, upper-deck blast with every pitch.

Maybe it's big-contract stress. Maybe I'm overreacting. Thirty years old is still pretty young to be losing reaction time.

But I am officially worried. 

Joel Embiid's horrible, no-good, very bad week

 

The National Basketball Association is the ultimate individual-focused team sport.

It is the team sport with the fewest starting players, a sport that showcases marvelous team play at times.

But when the NBA Playoffs turn into a grinding possession battle, it's about your star. Can your star be tougher, more clutch, and more productive than the opponent's star?

NBA history is filled with legends who passed this test, from Larry Bird to Michael Jordan to Jimmy Butler and Steph Curry today. 

Joel Embiid failed this test in a major way the past week. More than that, he regressed into an oblivious mass of denial that leads this fan to wonder if he will ever play one minute of conference finals basketball -- let alone be fitted for a gaudy champion's ring.

A Boston-Philadelphia series that began with destiny calling -- a Game One victory, on the road, while Embiid rested -- descended into a nightmare of shrinking superstars, self-denial and finally, a full on-court Roberto Duran-like 'No mas' lay down.

To be sure, there is a lot of blame beyond Embiid for this debacle. James Harden's schizophrenic output in the series defies description.

People smarter than me say Doc Rivers is a terrible big-game coach. Could be accurate.

But Joel Embiid is Superstar No. 1, the NBA scoring champ and Most Valuable Player. Joel has the most responsibility, is the franchise spokesman, and had the roster and an offense built around him and for him.

He asked for all of these things, and eagerly embraced being the face of The Process. A genial, fun-loving fellow, Joel could be the hero or the villain, as the moment dictated.

We naturally assumed that titles would follow. Embiid is perhaps the most physically skilled basketball player in the world. He has an Ohtani-like ability to be the best player on the court at every skill at a given moment.

But the titles didn't come. Disappointment persisted, with the Sixers getting bounced in the semifinals four of the last five years.

All of that was a distant memory with 4:24 remaining in Game Six Thursday night. Holding an 83-81 lead in front of a manic home crowd, the Sixers were going to win and advance. Nobody watching this scene unfold had any doubt about the outcome.

Instead, the Sixers were outscored 14-1 before a meaningless final bucket from a bench player. Embiid did not touch the ball after missing a 19-footer with 3:53 remaining.

The weak responses continued in the postgame presser.

"I didn't touch the ball at all," Embiid told reporters.

There are two reasons why that is just about the worst thing The Star can say at that moment. For starters, it sounds like you're evading accountability, which I think Embiid was doing. So much for leadership.

Secondly, it at least half sounds like you're tossing your teammates under the SEPTA bus, which I do not think he was doing. Still, I am sure some of those guys heard one or both of these messages and did not like it. It's a foxhole, right?

Everything that happened after 10 p.m. Thursday night landed like repeated grenades on the Joel Embiid Era. Forget Game Seven. After what happened Thursday, they had no chance to win in Boston.

I have questions. I wonder if Joel was exhausted, a Game Four issue that drew a PJ Tucker on-court rebuke:

Most of all, I just want to know why Embiid did not demand the ball? During the final five minutes Thursday, the Sixers looked hopelessly lost and disorganized. The entire nine years since Joel Embiid was drafted were leading to this moment, when he would stand up and deliver a victory. Instead, he drifted into the background, then whined about it afterward.

Dennis Johnson tells a story about the time Celtics' head coach KC Jones was having trouble drawing up a last-second play that would decide a close game. Finally, an exasperated Bird piped up and said, "Just give me the ball, coach, and the rest of you fucking guys get out of the way."

This is not Joel Embiid. Am I being overly dramatic here? I don't think so:

I like Joel Embiid. I genuinely do. But his career arc has stalled and regressed significantly in the past four days. This was his time, this was the Sixers' time, and the last person who seemed to realize it was Joel Embiid himself. That's not good.

And for the first time, Joel seems to be losing the Philadelphia fan. Thousands voted in a WIP poll today asking who deserves more blame: Embiid, Harden or Doc. Joel leads with 72%.

It feels like a crossroads of sorts.

Where do the Sixers go from here?

For the first time since The Process began a decade ago, the Sixers enter the off-season with no obvious path closer to a title.

Harden is probably gone. Rivers might be, too. I guess the obvious strategy is to rebuild around your star.

I guess.

But what do you do when the one thing you need from your leader is to lead?