Thursday, December 14, 2017

No, The Phillies Probably Aren't Signing Machado or Harper




Popular opinion in Philliesland these days has the squad holding another year of tryouts for the youngsters, keeping the best, and signing Manny Machado or Bryce Harper to a megadeal in the 2018 offseason.

Boom.

Only that probably isn't going to happen. I mean the first part is a given, but realistically, the Phils will likely have to aim lower in their return to big-time free agency.

I'll return to that momentarily. First, an explanation.

Yes, the Phils have the GDP of a small country's worth of cash to spend. What they don't have is any kind of winning atmosphere.

And it does matter. Let's face it, as long as starting pitchers two through five remain some mix of Eickhoff, Velasquez, Thompson, Pivetta, Eflin and Lively -- the squad is heading for another 90-loss season.

That would make it four straight. Of the 35 biggest contracts ever handed out in Major League Baseball, none has been signed by a team that lost 90 games even twice in a row.

I looked at every contract from Giancarlo Stanton's 13-year, $325 million deal to Carl Crawford's seven-year, $142 million pact.

Only twice has a team coming off a 90-loss season signed one of those 35 megadeals. Both of those teams had some variables not present with these Phillies.

Let's look at those two contracts:

* Alex Rodriguez signs a 10-year, $252 million deal with the Texas Rangers (2001). While the Rangers were coming off a 71-91 season, it was a bit of a fluke. They had won 95 games the previous year.

* Robinson Cano signs a 10-year, $240 million deal with the Seattle Mariners (2014). Seattle was also coming off a 71-91 record when they lavished cash on Cano. However, the Mariners had signed Felix Hernandez to MLB's 18th largest contract the previous winter (seven years, $175 million), so they had one of baseball's best pitchers in place.

That's it.

The money always gets all the attention. But lots of teams have lots of cash. A winning situation is obviously a big part of the equation as well.

And it's not just the Yankees and Red Sox signing these megadeals. Teams signing the top 35 contracts include the Giants, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, Twins, Tigers, Orioles, Reds, Nationals, Rockies, Rangers, Marlins and Mariners.

There are some reasons for hope. Repped by Dan Lozano, Machado is said to want to set a salary record. That makes him very similar to Rodriguez and Cano.

In fact, absent the Felix signing, the Phils sort of resemble the pre-Cano Mariners. That Seattle franchise had lost at least 95 three times in the previous six seasons.

As for Harper, he simply loves playing at Citizen's Bank Park. Harper has 12 career homers there, the most of any road park.

But most likely, the Phils will have to aim lower and absurdly overpay. Think of that potential deal as the Jayson Werth signing that enabled the Nationals to take that step forward and in later years sign Stephen Strasburg (No. 18 contract; seven years, $175 million) and Max Scherzer (No. 11; seven years, $210 million).

OFs Charlie Blackmon and A.J. Pollack are among those second-tier options that would greatly improve the ballclub.

What say you?







Saturday, December 2, 2017

Cookin' on the Hot Stove




Now that our favorite little baseball team has hired superstud Gabe Kaplar as manager and his coaching staff is in place, it's time to look at the roster.

It seems like the hot stove is starting to smolder and we're likely to see some cooking this week. The Phillies are an interesting free agent player, as Fangraphs noted last week. Do they or don't they? Or do they halfway it?

With the books completely scrubbed, the Phils have just $37 million or so to pay out this year. This is a big-market franchise with a $180 million payroll as recently as 2014. That was the same year the team inked a $2.5 billion TV deal with Comcast.

Somewhere in Phillies Kingdom there is a big pile of money to spend. Logic says it's in a vault at Citizen's Bank.

Let's sort this out. Options include spending short-term, or long-term, signing their own players to extensions, or waiting until 2018 and going hard at Harper, Machado or others.

Or they could do a combination of those things -- or maybe all of them. This team might be the most flexible franchise in MLB.

I'm going to break our potential moves into three main categories:

* Come Back One Year! -- Phillies are not likely to seriously contend for three years. So few expect them to be bidding on the big fish in this pool.

But if they can get someone who they feel will be an important piece in 2020, they should definitely try to sign him.

Unfortunately, that's a small pool. A starting pitcher like Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn. Forget about Giancarlo Stanton -- that ain't happening, nor should it.

Odds: 6-1

* Do The Opposite -- GM Klentak is certainly going to sign some players, we know that much. Most likely, they are going to fall into the supporting player category. Our needs list is headed by a couple starting pitchers, a couple bullpen pieces and perhaps a backup OF.

I have interest in OF Jon Jay here, although he appears close to signing with the Mariners. On the mound, Chris Tillman is a buy-low guy and I love taking a flyer on Drew Smyly. He's coming off Tommy John, so won't be ready until the All-Star Break, or perhaps a little earlier.

But Smyly has a 3.78 ERA in the AL, and he's a lefty at 28 years old. Leftys have a long history of blooming in their late-20s. The Phillies have let a few of these guys get away over the years (JA Happ comes to mind), so this would be a chance to get one back.

Might take two years and $10 million. But that's a lottery ticket worth purchasing. The only downside to this fit is Smyly's home run rate. He gave up 32 bombs in 2016, but he kept the ball in the park much better in earlier years.

Odds: 1-1 (Players will be signed here)

* The Upside-Down Pen -- Here's my wild-card strategy. If Klentak comes up empty with Lynn, Cobb or any other significant starting pitcher, why not turn to a bullpen strategy?

In short, I'd rather spend $50 million on contracts for Brandon Morrow and Bryan Shaw than spending $75 million on a fourth starter Mike Leake/Jeremy Hellickson type. Of course, they won't be able to sign both Morrow and Shaw, but maybe they get one and keep shopping.

I just think a beefed-up bullpen gives you so many options. It really fits the trend that winning teams are using today, and the Phils have a little bit of a foundation with Hector Neris, Luis Garcia and Edubray Ramos. An average rotation backed up by a parade of hard-throwing rightys won Kansas City a ring not long ago.

If the Phils take a big step forward, they can hang on to their pen pieces. If not, they would be very attractive at the trade deadline. Most importantly, the money invested is virtually a non-issue. I think the Phils would happily send $10 million along with a stud RP in exchange for a couple strong prospects.

Odds: 4-1

Phillies are entering an exciting phase of the rebuild. They can go in a dozen different directions. Of course, next year is likely to generate the real fireworks.

Until then, the good news is we should see plenty of action this year. And the better news is it seems Michael Saunders has retired.







Sunday, November 19, 2017

The Top 100 Players in MLB History

Lou Gehrig, left, and the Babe pose in the dugout.



Before assembling my top 100 list, I thought about what my criteria would be. After all, without criteria, lists are somewhat dubious.

I came up with a few things. Consistency is important for my ranking, especially closer to the top. Most of the guys up there were dominant for at least eight years.

Other things I considered with every player: their versatility across skillsets (power, speed, defense, hits per nine, ERA, K/W ratio, etc.); postseason record; all-time standing; and intangibles. The latter might include things like whether they played in the integrated era, and their ballpark.

I am a traditionalist, but this is not a traditional fan ranking. I looked at the WAR for every single player. 

The hardest part is ranking players from 100 years ago. I finally decided to compare those players to one another, not to players from today. I did not consider pre-1900 players. The protean rules of that era make it difficult to rate the stars like Cap Anson and Kid Nichols.

Finally, I allowed my own memories from 40 years of watching baseball, as well as my own value judgments, to factor in the criteria. After all, this is fun and it’s my list.


1. Babe Ruth – Yes, it was a much different era for baseball, one that few people living can assess in comparison to the modern game. It’s best to avoid the Ruth vs. today rabbit hole entirely and just appreciate what he accomplished during his prolific career. The game was fundamentally the same, and nobody in history owned it the way George Herman Ruth did.

It’s hard to appropriately convey how good he was, other than to say he was bigger than the game. I don’t mean his outsized personality. I mean Ruth was so good, he made baseball a different game. The home run was an afterthought pre-Babe. By the time he retired, baseball was the most popular American pastime due mainly to how Ruth played it. You likely know the hitting numbers, so I’ll skip them.

Ruth’s teams won seven World Series rings, and he started the game’s greatest rivalry – albeit accidentally. After winning three championships with the Red Sox, owner Harry Frazee sold Ruth to the New York Yankees and the Sox didn’t win again for 86 years.

Oh, and Ruth went 94-28 with a 2.28 ERA and was the best left-handed pitcher in the game from 1916-18.

He was the Babe, the Bambino, the Sultan of Swat and Yankee Stadium was the House that Ruth Built. Simply the best.

2. Willie Mays – If you were tasked with creating the quintessential modern ballplayer, you would doubtless craft something that resembled Willie Mays. Confronting his career ledger yields a wondrous thought: he’s probably underrated.

In every skill, Mays gave us two performance levels: great and all-time great. He hit .302 lifetime, stole 338 bases and walked nearly as often as he struck out (1,464-1,526).

He hit 660 homers and won 12 Gold Gloves. Mays finished in the top six in the National League MVP voting an amazing 10 years straight.

A few players achieve prominence for doing everything well on the baseball field. Mays was the best of those very select few who did everything great.

Mays was a marvelous player, but he was not perfect. His .247 postseason batting average in 25 games is a lone besmirchment.

3. Ted Williams – In some ways, Ted Williams was the opposite of Mays. He couldn’t run (24 steals in 41 career attempts), he didn’t play defense especially well, and he probably wasn’t a very good teammate.

But Williams was the greatest hitter who ever played, in my opinion. Where do we start? How about Ted’s ridiculous .482 on-base percentage? It’s the highest in Major League history. Williams was essentially 60-70 years ahead of the sabermetrics’ movement, which properly elevated OBP ahead of batting average.

Williams was absurd with a bat in his hand. Six years straight (1941-42, 1946-49) he led the American League in walks, OBP, slugging percentage and OPS. He won four batting titles, led the AL in homers four times and finished in the top three in the MVP vote all six years.

Incredibly, Williams missed three years in the middle of that stretch due to World War II service. One wonders where his crazy offensive numbers would have ended up had he not been called to serve his country.

Nobody hit a baseball better than Ted Williams and that deserves top three on my list.

4. Hank Aaron – The story of Hammerin’ Hank Aaron is one of consistent greatness. From a raw rookie in 1954 until he retired 22 years later, Aaron avoided injury and hit the baseball with unparalleled consistency.

He led the National League four times in homers, doubles, RBIs and slugging percentage. He led the league in total bases eight times, and is the all-time leader in total bases and RBIs.

Blessed with famously strong, quick-twitch wrists, Aaron’s 755 home runs will forever be the standard for me. To think that he never exceeded 100 strikeouts is stunning. Aaron played during an era where 100 Ks was a black mark to be avoided. Had he swung relentlessly for the fences, he might have hit 1,000 bombs.

In 74 postseason at-bats, Aaron hit .362 with six homers.

If you were starting an all-time team, Aaron might be your first draft pick.

5. Walter Johnson – Our first pitcher is acknowledged as the greatest hurler of all time -- the Big Train. It’s very hard to judge players across such vast eras, but I am trusting the metrics that show Johnson as the preeminent pitcher of the early days.

Johnson claims one all-time MLB record likely to never be broken – 110 career shutouts. The active leader is Clayton Kershaw with 15.

Johnson’s career is remarkable for its lengthy dominance. He won league MVPs 11 years apart in 1913 and 1924 and remains second all time with 417 wins and ninth with 3,509 strikeouts.

6. Ty Cobb – Cobb was a horrible human being off the field. On it, he didn’t hit many homers (117), and he was equally hated by opponents, teammates and umpires.

But the man could hit. Cobb hit .295 as a teenager his first two years (1905-06), but never dipped below .323 during his final 22 years in the majors.

During a 13-year stretch beginning in 1907, Cobb won the American League batting title every year but one. He hit .377 with 744 stolen bases during this period.

Cobb still holds the highest batting average in ML history at .366. He is second in hits with 4,189, triples (295) and runs (2,244).

7. Barry Bonds – I’ll confess my bias here: I don’t like Barry Bonds. He ruined the magical career home run number that every baseball-obsessed kid used to know by heart: 714, and then 755. I don’t even know what the number is now and don’t care. It’s a fraud.

The number is now treated like that aunt who blurts out uncomfortable comments during Thanksgiving dinner. We wince, but just go on as though everything else is normal.

Having said that, Bonds was going to be an all-time player prior to juicing. I am going to accept the “Game of Shadows” assertion that he started his medicinal enhancement program in 1998.

At that point, Bonds had 374 homers, 417 stolen bases, three MVP awards and seven Gold Gloves. He was certainly going to be a 500-500 player.

An all-time great who made some extremely sad choices.

8. Tom Seaver – During his first 12 years in the big leagues, Tom Terrific’s earned run average exceeded 3.00 just once. Considering that he threw five shutouts and led the National Leage in Ks/9 and K/W ratio, that 3.20 ERA in 1974 was seemingly the byproduct of some tough luck.

In my opinion, Seaver lost a year in 1966 when he needlessly pitched in Triple A when he was clearly ready for the bigs. That hurts his final ledger, which is still outstanding. Those first 12 years included three Cy Youngs and three other top five finishes.

Seaver’s final eight years were less consistent, but included some sparkling seasons – like 14-2 with a 2.54 ERA in 1981 and a magnificent 16-11, 3.12 effort at 40 years old in 1985.

In total, Seaver went 311-205 with a 2.86 ERA. He made a beautiful transition from a hard thrower who led the NL in strikeouts five times in his first 12 years, to a crafty pitcher who never K’d more than 135 his last eight years.

Few know more about pitching than the great Tom Seaver.

9. Rogers Hornsby – Our first true infielder and the greatest second baseman ever. Hornsby can match production with any of the names above.

From 1920-25, he led the National League in virtually every major offensive category every year. He hit an incredibly .397 during those six years.

Hornsby fell off considerably in his 30s, hitting just 23 homers after clubbing 39 in his MVP age 33 season. One wonders if he didn’t suffer from the type of shoulder or knee injury that went undiagnosed in those days.

Hornsby never stopped hitting, however, and closed out his career with a .358 average, good enough for second all-time.

10. Stan Musial – A poor man’s Ted Williams in a sense. I admire Musial greatly for his power produced vs. the strike-zone judgment.

Stan got the most anyone could get from his 12,718 at-bats. He struck out just 696 times. Now the good: 1,599 walks, 475 homers, 725 doubles and 177 triples. That the anvil-footed Musial (78 career steals) banged out 177 triples testifies to how hard he regularly mashed the baseball.

The Man’s 1,377 extra-base hits is third all-time. He ranks second in total bases, fourth in hits and pocketed three MVP awards.

11. Roger Clemens – At this point, I am saddened by the fact there were so many poor character ballplayers among the greats. Clemens, of course, continues to bizarrely claim he never used steroids, a claim believed only by virtually nobody.

Be that as it may, the Rocket was heading for the top of this list before juicing went mainstream. Unlike Bonds, there’s no book pinpointing when the Roge went on the needle. But prior to turning 30 and long before steroids entered the picture, Clemens had three Cys, and had led the American League in shutouts five times, ERA four times and strikeouts twice.

He would add four more Cys in his 30s and finish 354-184 with a 3.12.

12. Honus Wagner – Generally considered the best SS ever, I could rank Wagner higher. A Pittsburgh legend, Wagner won eight National League batting titles and led the league in stolen bases five times and doubles seven times.

Although he only hit 101 career homers, Wagner led the NL in slugging percentage six times. Probably should have retired at 40.

13. Lou Gehrig – Let’s address The Streak first. I find it admirable and impressive, but it in no way affects my ranking. Frankly, I’d rather see a star player take a day off a month at minimum to stay fresh.

The Iron Horse was lineup protection for the Babe, an interesting decision. While his numbers, particularly the 1,995 RBIs, are no doubt inflated due to the perennial lineup strength, Sweet Lou was a masher in his own right.

He hit .340 career with 493 homers and a 1.080 OPS. Lou won two MVPs and six other years finished top five. In postseason action, Gehrig upped it to .361 and a 1.214 OPS.

14. Randy Johnson – The Big Unit is somewhat the opposite of Seaver. Following his age 28 season, Johnson was coming off three straight seasons leading the league in walks.

The ensuing 12 seasons saw him go 197-80 with a 2.78 ERA. More impressively, he struck out 3,343 batters in 2,550 innings. He won four straight Cy Youngs in his mid-to-late 30s.

Johnson led his league in ERA four times and fewest hits per nine five times. He remains baseball’s all-time K-per-nine leader at 10.6.

This is an unusual ranking given the glaring negatives at various times in Johnson’s career. But he was also extremely dominant for a very long stretch.

15. Lefty Grove – Back-to-back leftys with Robert Moses Grove. Lefty certainly earned his way here, leading the American League in ERA nine times in a career that concluded in 1941. The 1931 MVP also led the league in strikeouts this first seven years of his career.

But I like Grove for different reasons. He gave up a lot of hits and a lot of walks. Still, he had the great ERA (3.06 career) and went 300-141 overall. That tells me Grove was toughest in the toughest situations, and forever stingy with the game on the line.

In short, a winner. A player I especially wish I could have seen play.

16. Johnny Bench – This is high, but I want to acknowledge the coach on the field. Back in the day, catcher was even more important than today.

Johnny Bench in his 20s was an incomparable asset to a baseball team. During those 10 years, Bench won two MVPs, produced 286 homers, 1,032 RBIs at the plate, and won the Gold Glove every season.

For those 10 years, Johnny Bench was as good at catcher as the game has ever seen.

17. Tris Speaker – Otherwise known as the King of the Two Bagger. Speaker is the all-time leader in doubles with 792.

A marvelous hitter, Speaker was overshadowed annually by Cobb. He won his lone batting title in 1916, edging Cobb, .388-.371. Otherwise, Speaker finished second or third in the batting race nine times.

Speaker hit .345 for his career with 3,514 hits, good for fifth all-time.

18. Pete Alexander – I have a hard time judging players who predate the “deadball era.” Especially pitchers, who enjoyed enormous advantages.

But Old Pete spanned the entire eras and pitched wonderfully throughout his career, retiring with a 373-208, 2.56 line.

Pete will forever be remembered for the 1926 World Series, when the 39-year-old hurler led the Cardinals to a massive upset of the Yankees. Pete went the distance in a Game Six win on Saturday, then returned for 2.1 innings of relief to close out Game Seven the following day.

19. Alex Rodriguez -- Another steroid dude. I don’t know what is real with these guys and, in some ways, Alex is harder than the rest. Unlike some others, Alex’s career did not predate the steroid era.

But I remember Alex as a high school phenom and his talent was always legit. Personally, I don’t think he was using as a 20-year-old rookie who won the batting crown at .358, adding 54 doubles, 36 homers and 123 RBIs.

The rest of the numbers are cartoonish, and I don’t know what’s real and what isn’t. But I’m certain Alex was going to be a transcendent talent regardless. At SS, he had great range and a great arm to go with it.

A polarizing figure for sure.

20. Greg Maddux – As I write this, I’m thinking Maddux should be higher. Unlike the old timers, he played during integration. More importantly, he pitched during the steroid era, which makes his domination all the more breathtaking.

From 1992-98, Maddux won four Cys and finished in the top five every year. He went 123-57 with a sparkling 2.15 ERA. His 0.968 WHIP is unbelievable.

And it’s not like he pitched poorly before or after that seven-year run. Maddux finished up with 355 wins and a 3.16 ERA. His slingback fastball challenged hitters and umps alike. Oh, and he won 20 Gold Gloves.

So what’s the problem? I reverse Pete and Maddux if the latter righty had a little more postseason success. As it is, Greg’s 11-14 postseason mark feels a bit unsatisfying.

21. Mickey Mantle – We all know Mantle wasted his incredible athletic gifts to some degree. But the production is still prodigious.

The Mick won three MVPs and finished second three times as well. All off the strength of 536 homers and another 18 in the postseason. A career .421 OBP and .557 slugging percentage are evidence of Mantle’s imposing presence at bat.

22. Mike Schmidt – I grew up listening to Harry Kalas’ summer night calls of “Home run Michael Jack Schmidt!” Baseball was never better.

Schmitty hit a lot of homers (548), won three National League MVPs and was the anchor of the most successful Phillies’ core in history. On defense, Mike won 10 Gold Gloves. No third baseman charged and barehanded the slow dribbler better than Schmidt.

Sadly, the apex of my baseball-obsessed, baseball card-collecting youth came in 1981, when the baseball strike curtailed Mike’s pinnacle season. He hit .316 with 31 homers in 102 games that year.

23. Joe DiMaggio – Injuries and military service conspired to rob Joe D of a lot of field time. Still, produced some of baseball’s best performances. Start with 1941 and the 56-game hitting streak.

Joe hit .357 that year with 76 walks and 13 Ks in 622 plate appearances. Won three MVPs awards and married Marilyn Monroe.

24. Jimmie Foxx – Finished his career with a 1.038 OPS. Knocked in more than 150 runs four times and won three MVPs. A thunderous hitter. Lefty Gomez remarked, “He had muscles on his muscles.”

25. Eddie Collins – Came about during the deadball era and promptly hit .347, .323, .365, .348, .345, and .344 beginning in 1909. Collins was a little hitterish, as Whitey would have said.

Collins holds the all-time MLB record for sacrific hits with 512.

26. Clayton Kershaw – Great pitchers often fall into one of two categories: the hard throwers who struggle with walks (Ryan, Koufax, Johnson) and the command pitchers who give up a lot of hits. Maddux, for example, gave up 8.5 hits per nine over his career.

Then there’s Kershaw. The extraordinary pitcher who throws nothing but strikes, and they still can’t hit it. Clayton ranks second all-time in fewest hits per nine at 6.7. While he walked a fair amount of hitters early in his career, his control is now the best in the game.

The past two years, Kershaw struck out 374 batters and walked 41. He will finish in the top five in Cy Young voting for the seventh straight season.

The postseason record (and continued success) is the only thing standing in the way of Kershaw ranking as perhaps the best pitcher of all time. He hits per nine (7.2) and Ks (10.3) are fine, but his 4.35 ERA in 122 postseason innings is not acceptable.

27. Frank Robinson – Solid, sustained greatness. Feared hitter. Best marks are .342 (1962), 49 homers (1966), 136 RBIs (1962), 51 doubles (1962), 26 steals (1966), 88 walks (1969).

28. Warren Spahn – Missed three early years to World War III service and still piled up 363 wins and a 3.09 ERA. Finished what he started. Led the National League in complete games seven straight years and nine times overall.

Another crafty lefty, much like Gomez, Spahn finished with 382 complete games and 63 shutouts.

29. Mel Ott – Underrated hitter, Ott walked 1,708 times to bolster a career .414 OPB. He also bashed 511 homers and batted .304 during a 22-year career, all with the New York Giants.

Ott’s only fault was playing among a lot of great hitters. He only had one top three finish in the MVP race (3rd in 1942). A typical season saw him lead the NL in homers (35), RBIs (135) and bat .326 in 1934 – and finish 5th in the MVP race.

30. Nap Lajoie – Another deadball era player. Tough to rate. Cracked 657 doubles, stole 380 bases and hit .326 in a 21-year career that concluded in 1916.

31. Joe Morgan – Morgan walked more than he struck out every single season. At his best, he was one of the best tablesetters ever. When he won back-to-back MVPs in 1975-76, Morgan walked 246 times and struck out 93 times.

He stole 689 bases and hit 268 homers. On defense, Morgan was five Gold Gloves at second base. And he had the coolest bat trigger the game has ever seen.

32. Christy Mathewson – Incredibly consistent deadball era pitcher. Posted a 2.41 ERA as a 20-year-old rookie in 1901 and went lower than that for the next 12 years. Finished with a 2.13 and 373 wins.

0.97 ERA in 11 postseason starts. Died young (45) within a decade of retiring young in 1916.

33. Rickey Henderson – Unusual player. Stole the most bases in history, but was also caught the most. Dynamic offensive weapon, but a handful in the clubhouse. Dumped by teams more than any superstar in history.

Still, the best leadoff man in MLB history. Drew 2,190 walks and scored and all-time record 2,295 runs. Also hit 297 homers. Played too long. Hit just .228 his last 348 games.

34. Cy Young – I’ll be honest: I don’t know where to put Cy Young. He holds plenty of pitching records, but his main skill seems to have been an ability to throw a bazillion innings. He started, completed, won and threw the most innings in ML history.

But he gave up 8.7 hits per nine – in the deadball era. In the prime of his career, in 1894, he gave up 488 hits in 408 innings. Yikes.

Let’s just park him at 34 and celebrate Cy’s marvelous 1908 season. At 41, he went 21-11 with a 1.26 ERA. They named a damn award after him – that counts for something.

35. Jackie Robinson – Jackie had a bit of a thin career – eight strong years – but the legacy lives on. Off the field impact is not really part of this list, but Jackie’s impact kinda overwhelms any criteria.

And he was a great player, one who didn’t arrive until he was 28. Jackie had six straight years exceeding a .410 OBP and .900 OPS. He hit .311 for his career, with one MVP (1949) and a Rookie of the Year (1947).

36. Roberto Clemente – Didn’t run that great, but Clemente could hit. He won three National League batting titles, topping out at .357 in 1967.

Also a wonderful RF who won 12 straight Gold Gloves. Departed tragically with 3,000 hits on the nose.

37. Albert Pujols – Aging poorly, but what a start to his career. In his first 10 years, Pujols averaged .331, 41 homers and 123 RBIs. Sadly for the Angels, they paid megabucks for the decline years. Buyer beware.

38. Eddie Matthews – Like many ballplayers, the 30s were not kind to Matthews. But in his 20s, he mashed, hitting 40+ homers four times. Walked 1,444 times and struck out 1,487.

39. Bob Gibson – Gibby intimidated on the mound and was at his toughest in the high-stakes games. He won two World Series MVPs and allowed just 55 hits and 17 earned runs in 81 postseason innings (1.89).

He also went 251-174 with a 2.91 and two Cys in the regular season. From 1968-70, Bob completed 79 of 103 starts, went 65-29 with a 2.13. A complete player, Bob won nine Gold Gloves and hit .206 with 24 homers.

40. Pedro Martinez – Pedro had a great career, one cut short by injuries. But he was stunningly dominant for a seven-year stretch from 1997-2003. He went 118-36, with a 2.20 and 1,761 strikeouts in 1,408 innings. He won three Cys and finished second two other years.

41. George Brett – When he was healthy, which wasn’t as often as others, Brett could swing it with anyone. A power hitter with 665 doubles and 317 homers, Brett famously hit .390 in 1980. He won three batting titles overall and was a solid fielder at the hot corner.

42. Pete Rose – New-agey fans are not going to like the .784 career OPS. Certainly Pete is very overrated given his name recognition. But for all they add to our analysis of the game, new metrics can’t measure the human impact and that’s the one flaw.

Pete was about pressure – an unrelenting pressure on the opposing pitcher and defense that never abated. He agitated, he annoyed and he got on base. Often, Pete was going to do something that didn’t show up as a stat.

In the postseason, Pete was better – hitting .321 with an .828 OPS in 67 games.

43. Ken Griffey Jr. – Another guy who played two years too long. But Griffey could do it all. Hit 630 homers and stole 184 bases. A .300 hitter in his prime, Grif won 10 Gold Gloves for masterful centerfield play.

44. Steve Carlton – Hung on three painful years too long. But setting that aside, Lefty’s slider was one of baseball’s epic pitches. It carried him to four Cy Young awards and one remarkable season in particular (27-10 on a 59-win Phillies team in 1972).

45. Mike Trout – His first five seasons include two MVPs and three second-place finishes. No question Trout is going to rocket up this list with each season. He is the best player in the game. The debate comes with where to slot a player with six great seasons. 45 feels right.

46. Ernie Banks – Mr. Cub had a remarkable career that unfortunately did not include any postseason action. During a six-year run (1955-60), Banks his 248 homers, knocked in 693 runs and hit .294.

Ernie only won one Gold Glove, but new fielding metrics credit him with tremendous range at shortstop. Unfortunately, he played during an era that considered errors the main fielding stat.

47. Miguel Cabrera – Pure hitter whose 2017 decline saddens. Rebound potential is good for a few more decent seasons if he works hard this offseason. Career .317 hitter (four batting titles) with 462 homers and seven top five MVP finishes. Offers little speed or defense.

48. Adrian Beltre – Changed teams at an abnormal rate for a great player. Struck out twice as much as he walked and range not great for a solid defender. Despite those flaws, Beltre enjoyed a long career as a tremendous two-way player.

Hit 462 homers and 613 doubles and even stole 120 bases. Oddly, a poor .325 OBP in his 20s improved to decent .360 in his 30s.

49. Nolan Ryan – A one-dimensional pitcher, one who struck out the most batters in history and walked the most as well. But Ryan translated that one dimension – power – into prolonged excellence unmatched in history.

His 6.6 hits per nine is the best ever. Ryan tossed seven no-hitters and an astounding 12 one-hitters and 18 two-hitters. Simply put, he was a threat to allow zero hits every time out.

The Express pitched on a lot of bad teams, but put up a sterling 0.903 WHIP in 58 postseason innings. His 12-6, 2.91, 203 Ks in 173 innings at 44 years old in 1991 is one of the more amazing seasons in MLB history.

50. Al Kaline – So much to love about Al Kaline that I want him higher. He just went to work and did everything really well, if unspectacular. For 22 years, Kaline labored somewhat in obscurity with the Detroit Tigers.

The numbers tease how close Kaline was to all-time greatness: .297 BA, 399 homers, 498 doubles. As it stands, he was really, really good. Won 10 Gold Gloves, although modern fielding metrics wouldn’t rate him as highly. A wonderful career.

51. Hank Greenberg – Yet another player who lost time to the war, roughly four years in Greenberg’s case. When he played, Hank put up titanic numbers.

He concluded his career with per-162 averages of .313, 38 homers 148 RBIs and 99 walks/98 Ks. Won two American League MVPs.

52. Cal Ripken Jr. – One of the many players I struggled to rank. As noted with Gehrig, I am indifferent to the games played streak. So I am probably biased against a guy who hit 431 homers and 603 doubles. The K/W ratio was very strong, but the .278 BA and .788 OPS were just OK.

The Ripper was much better defensively than I realized. Posted a very strong SS range factor for such a big man (6-4).

53. Sandy Koufax – Hands down, the toughest player to rank. Where do you rank a player with five dominant seasons? My answer is 53rd.

Hard to imagine a pitcher having any better five-year stretch than Sandy K had from 1962-66. He led the National League in ERA every year and went 111-34 with a 1.95. He won three Cys, one MVP and finished second in the 1965 and 1966 MVP voting.

In 57 postseason innings, Sandy was superhuman, winning two World Series MVP awards and pitching to a 0.95 ERA.

A very short burst of pitching brilliance.

54. Bob Feller – Rapid Robert is another ballplayer who missed three years in Europe crushing the Nazi threat. All he did in the three years prior to the war was go 76-33 with a 2.88.

In his first full year back, Bob finished 36 of 44 games started with 10 shutouts, 26 wins and a 2.18. In terms of production lost to the war, Feller is the pitching equivalent of Ted Williams. Still, he won 265 games.

55. Carl Yazstrzemski – The mercurial Yaz has a complicated legacy. For some reason, he isn’t beloved in Boston nearly the way a man with 452 homers and 1,844 RBIs should be.

Boston didn’t win a lot and maybe that has something to do with it. Yaz came up on the heels of Ted Williams, so that might be a factor as well. But Carl had a marvelous career.

His peak performance ran 16 years (1962-77) and went like this: .291, 355 homers, 1,365 RBIs, 1,451 walks, 155 steals. Yaz won the Triple Crown and the MVP in 1967. He won a bunch of Gold Gloves and led the AL in outfield assists seven times. Hit .369 in 17 postseason games.

Should be more respected.

56. Mariano Rivera – Count me among those wary of closer numbers. But Rivera is the king of the closers and nobody else is in the room. Consider, at age 38 he played six more years and posted a 1.80 in 330.2 innings with 209 saves.

But it was the postseason that set Mariano apart. He pitched 141 playoff innings and gave up 11 runs (0.70).

57. Chipper Jones – Just a classic ballplayer right down to the nickname. Larry Jones might have done the same things, but it wouldn’t feel the same. With his country boy good looks and bright smile, Chipper was destined to be a star from the moment he was drafted No. 1 overall in 1990.

Finished at .303, 468 homers, 1,623 RBIs and 150 steals. Won his lone batting title by hitting .364 at age 36.

58. George Sisler – Hit .340 lifetime, including .420 in his apex season (1922). Fun fact: hit 18 triples in three straight seasons (1920-22). Pitched 111 innings to a 2.35 ERA.

59. Yogi Berra – Starting catcher on 10 World Series winning teams. Berra finished top four in the MVP voting an amazing seven straight years (1950-56), winning three times. Yogi nearly hit as many homers (358) as he struck out (414).

Penchant for mangling the English language overshadowed a smart, brilliant ballplayer.

60. Joe Jackson – Did he do it? I lean toward unlikely. As everyone knows, Jackson hit. 375 in that World Series and made no errors. Maybe we’ll never know, but the “evidence” appears dubious.

Otherwise, Jackson had the swing that Babe Ruth copied. He was one of the very best hitters of the deadball era, hitting .408 in 1911 and .395 a year later. In his final year, Jackson hit .382 and led the American League with 20 triples.

61. Charlie Gehringer – Another career Detroit Tigers’ legend. The Mechanical Man (?) was a bit underrated, but could do everything well. A strong defensive second baseman, Gehringer hit .320 career with 184 stolen bases and 181 homers. 1937 American League MVP.

62. Luke Appling – Another very underrated player IMO. Luscious Luke (not making that up) was a defensive whiz who could hit. Won the batting title at .388 in 1936. Missed nearly two years to war service – returned and hit .368 in 18 games in 1945. Delivered elite range from SS.

63. Wade Boggs – Buried in the minor leagues by the Red Sox until he was 25. Should have been in the Majors three years earlier. Still Boggs pounded out 200+ hits seven straight seasons and won five batting crowns. Drew nearly twice as many walks as Ks, finishing with a career .443 OBP.

Solid defender at third base.

64. Eddie Plank – Remarkably consistent pitcher in the deadball era. Plank posted ERAs between 1.76 and 2.87 over 15 consecutive years. Finished 326-194 with 69 shutouts.

65. Rod Carew – Soldiered on through many injuries that hurt his final numbers. Still, Carew was a pure hitter who thrived within the contextual hitting approach of his time. Won seven batting titles and the 1977 MVP.

66. Jim Palmer – A career 2.86 ERA, Palmer tossed 211 complete games and 53 shutouts. He finished 268-152 and won three Cy Youngs. Underwear model on the side.

67. Reggie Jackson – Reggie struck out the most times in history (2,597). He feuded with managers and teammates. He hit a pedestrian .262 for his career. He didn’t finish a single season with a 1 defensive WAR. He also bashed 563 homers, knocked home 1,702 runs and even stole 228 bases.

But he makes the list for what earned him the Mr. October moniker. Reggie hit 18 postseason homers and won two rings with the A’s and another two rings with the Yankees. He was World Series MVP in 1973 and 1977.

68. Willie McCovey – Things that surprise you: McCovey (.320 45, 126) was National League MVP in 1969. He followed that up with 39, 126 and .280, walking 137 times for a league-leading 1.056 OPS in 1970. And he finished 9th in the MVP race. Huh?

69. Ivan Rodriguez – One of the great two-way catchers in MLB history. Hit .296 with 311 homers and 127 steals. Also won 13 Gold Gloves and the 1999 American League MVP.

70. Harry Heilman – Yet another career Tiger on our list. Heilman remarkably had four seasons hitting .390 or above. Never hit below .328 during his final 10 seasons. Retired young at 35 with a career .342 average in 1930.

71. Gaylord Perry – I saw the end of Perry’s career, when he morphed into a sad charlatan sideshow. But while he had some so-so numbers (8.3 hits per 9, 265 losses), Perry was actually a force on the mound. From 1966-79, he piled up 255 wins and a 2.83. Won two Cy Youngs.

72. Johnny Mize – The original Big Cat. Mize also lost three years to war service. In six years prior to enlisting, he hit .332 with 165 homers. Returning in 1946, Mize hit .306 with 113 homers over the next three years.

73. Paul Waner – Just 5-8, 153 pounds, Big Poison averaged 206 hits his first 12 years. One of MLB’s most underrated players, Waner finished with a .333 average and 1,091 walks/376 Ks. His best year (Waner was 1927 National League MVP) came as the Yankees stole all the headlines.

74. Jeff Bagwell – 1991 Rookie of the Year and National League MVP three years later. Bagwell could flat-out hit. .297 batting average and 449 homers. Also stole 202 bases.

75. Carl Hubbell – Hub Spot is famously known for striking out five Hall of Famers in a row in the 1934 All-Star Game: Ruth, Gehrig, Foxx, Simmons and Joe Cronin. One of three pitchers to win two MVPs. Led the league in ERA three times and tossed 10 shutouts in 1933.

76. Brooks Robinson – A defensive weapon. Robinson piled up a 39 WAR at the Hot Corner and 16 Gold Gloves. His quick, sure hands dominated the 1970 World Series. Brooks hit .429 with a pair of homers and was MVP of that Fall Classic.

At the plate, Robinson was often barely above average. But the defense more than made up for it. Hit 482 doubles and 268 homers in a 23-year career.

77. Ozzie Smith – Let’s stay on the defensive with the best gloveman ever to play SS – or any position. Smith really didn’t offer much at bat (career .666 OPS), but he had the glove. No. 1 all time with a 43.4 career defensive WAR. Stole 580 career bases.

78. Chuck Klein – One of the most underrated nicknames in baseball history. The Hoosier Hammer did a lot of things on the baseball field. Like win the Triple Crown in 1933 (.368, 28, 120). Like set a single-season record for OF assists with 44 in 1930.

His first seven seasons, the Hammer hit .352 with 211 homers and a 1.026 OPS. Victim of self-inflicted wounds, it seems. Died at 53 after length alcohol abuse.

79. Whitey Ford – Epic Bomber ace who fronted six World Series-winning squads spanning 13 years. Lost two years to war service. Ford’s first 13 years usually meant the Yankees win, the Yankees win: 216-84, 2.73. 1961 Cy Young winner and World Series MVP. Iffy K/W ratio (5.6-3.1).

80. Andre Dawson – My youth baseball memories include a fear of seeing the Hawk step in against a (usually) hapless Phillie pitcher. Hawk stood 6-3 and his whip-quick bat uncoiled with often frightful results for opponents.

In 1987, Hawk handed the Cubs a signed, but blank, contract and told them to fill in the number. A victim of owner collusion, he was reportedly paid $800,000 for his ensuing MVP season (49, 137). Hit 438 homes and stole 314 bases. Powerful RF arm gunned down many a baserunner. Poor K/W ratio.

81. Joe Cronin – Steady .301 career hitter with great defensive range at SS. Prolific doubles hitter (515) who led the league twice. Knocked in 100+ runs eight times and walked 1,059 times to 700 Ks. Just steady great.

82. Bill Dickey – Another overshadowed, underrated player if you just go by the results. Catcher captain on the field for seven World Series winners. In 17 years, hit .313 with 202 homers and just 289 strikeouts. Superb defensive catcher who controlled the running game.

83. Fergie Jenkins – Five-time top five Cy Young finisher; Won it in 1971. Longtime, at times great RH starter. 3,194 Ks; 284 wins; 49 shutouts.

84. Bert Blyleven – Similar to Jenkins. 287 wins; 3,701 Ks. 60 shutouts. Remarkable 1989 season at 38 years old (17-5, 2.73).

85. Robin Roberts – Similar to Jenkins/Blyleven. 286 wins; 3.41 ERA; 45 shutouts. Led National League in K/W ratio five times in the 1950s. Phillies’ horse.

86. Dave Winfield – Crafted a Hall of Fame career out of being consistently very good. Only led the league in one major category – with 118 RBIs in 1979 – but did everything pretty well. 465 homers, 1,833 RBIs, 540 doubles, 223 steals. Powerful OF arm.

87. Eddie Murray – All-time leader in sacrifice flies. And that was Steady Eddie Murray – plug him in the four hole and bank on run production. Knocked in 1,917 runs off 560 doubles and 504 homers. Slick glove at first base.

88. Roy Halladay – Author of one of the two postseason no-hitters. Over 10-year stretch, Doc went 170-75 with a 2.97. Led league in K/W ratio five times and won a Cy Young in each league. Gave up a lot of hits (8.7/9)

89. Curt Schilling – The similarities between Doc and Schill are numerous. Both struggled mightily as young pitchers before enjoying a mid-career stretch of dominance that included great control and postseason success with the Phillies. Curt went 180-112 over 12 years with 2,632 Ks.

Led the league in K/W ratio five times. 11-2, 2.33 in 19 postseason starts. 2001 World Series MVP. Owner of bloody sock. Belongs in the Hall of Fame.

90. Paul Molitor – Just a wonderful player who started 50+ games at first base, second base, third base, shortstop and OF (all three positions). Hit .306 with 605 doubles, 234 homers and 504 steals. In 29 postseason games, hit .368 with 6 homers. Fine defender. Could do it all.

91. Duke Snider – From 1953-57, Snider bombed 40+ homers a year, for a 1.025 OPS. Finished with 407 homers and another 11 in the postseason.

92. Jim Thome – An old-fashioned power hitter who struck out a lot (2,548) and walked a lot (1,747). The payoff was 612 homers and a career .956 OPS. Avoided the declining 30s, which plagued similarly sized players such as Mo Vaughan. Hit 385 dingers after his 30th birthday.

93. Chase Utley – My favorite athlete and the most instinctive baseball player I’ve ever seen. Example: The Man ranks 2nd all-time with an 88 percent stolen base percentage 151-172. And he’s not especially fast.

Chase is everything you want in terms of work ethic, leadership, production and professionalism. His deke play in Game Five of the 2008 World Series is quickly becoming legendary. His five home runs in the 2009 World Series nearly carried the Phillies to a second banner.

Career hampered by injuries will end close to these numbers: 258 homers, 1,011 RBIs, 401 doubles and an .828 OPS. Hit by pitch 199 times – 8th all-time. Plus range at second base.

94. Roy Campanella – A shortened career, but those good years were really good. Campy had a seven-year run, during which he won three MVPs and hit 200 homers with a .901 OPS. Elite defender who gunned down an astounding 66 percent of runner during his first five seasons. Struggled in the postseason.

95. Robin Yount – Interesting player. Ten mediocre years bookend ten terrific ones. From ages 24-33, Young hit .305 with 174 homers and 148 steals. And won two MVPs. Terrific range at SS. Posted an .888 OPS in 17 postseason games.

96. John Smoltz – A career in three acts: Smoltzie won 157 games and struck out 2,098 batters his first 12 years, winning the 1996 Cy Young; moved to the closer role after missing the 2000 season with injury and saved 154 games in 3.5 dominating years; returned as a starter and won 44 games in three years. Went 15-4 with a 2.67 in 209 postseason innings.

97. Carlton Fisk – Long career as a very good catcher. 1972 American League Rookie of the Year and 1991 AL All-Star. 376 homers, 1,330 RBIs. Hit 83 doubles and 72 homers after turning 40. WAR grades as a good defender. Hitter of one of most famous postseason homers.

98. Gary Carter – The Kid is the National League version of Fisk. First All-Star game in 1975 and last one in 1988. Hit 324 homers and 1,225 RBIs. Excellent defensive catcher.

99. Ron Santo – From 1964-70, Santo was an on-base machine and stout defender at the Hot Corner. Also hit 205 homers during those seven prime years. Finished with five Gold Gloves, 342 homers, 1,331 RBIs.

100. Frankie Frisch – The Fordham Flash sneaks into our final spot. The 1931 National League MVP hit .316 for his career and stole 419 bases. Struck out just 272 times in 19 years. Superb infield defender and second and third.




Monday, September 4, 2017

Pitching the Way Forward for Phils




In a season starved for good news, the Phillies bullpen is providing a glimmer of hope for 2018 and beyond.

The pen is stocked with inexperience, much like the entire staff. As such, the kid pitchers are about as consistent as a David Lynch movie.

The 2017 Phillies have used 18 relievers, not counting Andres Blanco's one blowout inning. Amid the carnage of failed firemen, a couple positives emerged:


  • Hector Neris: Criticism greeted manager Mackanin's decision to elevate Neris to the closer spot two weeks into the season. For sure, it was handled clumsily.


Dearly departed Jeanmar Gomez started (and quickly failed) in the role before seemingly being replaced by Joaquin Benoit. The next time out, Neris suddenly had the job.

He has quietly performed admirably. In 50 appearances since May 1, Neris is 16-18 in save chances with a 2.52 ERA and 54 Ks. Twenty is still too many walks, but we would appear to have a closer here long-term. Neris isn't a free agent until 2022.


  • Adam Morgan: For much of the season, the Phillies have gone without a reliable left-handed reliever. Morgan failed spectacularly as a starter, and was dispatched to Triple A last year.


For many players, that would be the end. When Morgan was converted to the pen, it felt like a quixotic bid to extract some value from the now 27-year-old pitcher.

Back with the big club this year, Morgan served as the long man on a 100-loss team. That's sorta like the best friend role in a Ryan Gosling movie. Again Morgan got knocked around, only this time few noticed.

Quick story here: I liked Adam Morgan the first time I saw him pitch. He faced the Toronto Blue Jays that July day in 2015. It was potentially the worst lineup for a mediocre LH pitcher with an 89 MPH fastball. Rightys Bautista, Encarnacion and Donaldson all hit between 39 and 41 homers that year.

But it was leadoff hitter Deon Travis who took Morgan deep on his second pitch. Donaldson walked. Then Morgan showed something. Bautista hit into a double play and Encarnacion struck out.

Morgan reminds me of Kyle Kendrick. KK never had much talent, and repeatedly got hit hard, sent back to Triple A, or banished to the pen. Each time, he came back with a new pitch or a new game plan.

Since Aug. 1, Morgan has pitched 17.1 innings and given up one run (0.52 ERA) with 23 Ks.

“I feel like I’m still trying to find my niche in the game,” Morgan told Philly.com. “I don’t feel like I’m entitled to anything. One inning, two inning, anything. I think it’s important to show versatility.”

Free Agency

As Mike Ditka once offered, "Yesterday's yesterday, today's today and tomorrow's tomorrow."

It is what it is. So how can it be improved? Obviously, the Phillies need a starting pitcher -- probably two -- via free agency.

It would be nice to add a left-hand starter to this group, but that might not be possible. Otherwise, I am eliminating anyone too old, too absurdly injury prone or too overpriced.

My wish list has three names on it:


  • Lance Lynn: Yes, he'll be 31 next year, but he has relatively low mileage at 957 innings. Yes, he had Tommy John surgery, but setting aside 2016, Lynn is completing his fifth injury free season.


He's not an ace, but Lynn would be a nice No. 2 in front of No. 3 Nola. In 92 starts since the start of 2014, he has a 2.91 ERA, with 482 hits allowed in 544.2 innings.

Cons: He probably isn't hyped to join the worst team in baseball. St. Louis just cleared a ton of salary, ostensibly to resign Lynn.

It would take a LOT of cash to get Lynn. He is the same age as Max Scherzer was when he inked a seven-year, $210 million deal with the Nats. Scherzer was coming off a three-year stretch of 97 starts, a 3.24 ERA and 522 hits in 627 innings.

Scherzer is a better pitcher and doesn't have the TJ. Still, the Phillies should expect to go to $160 or $170 to land Lynn. Is that too rich for you?


  • Alex Cobb: My backup man is Cobb. This is a huge dropoff. While Cobb is six months younger than Lynn, he has struggled some with injuries.


Cobb has never pitched a full season, although he was at least health 85-90 percent of the time from 2012-14. He had Tommy John surgery (doesn't everyone?) and made just five starts in 2015-16.

This year, he's made 25 starts in the rugged AL East and has a 3.72 ERA. Prior to his surgery, he pitched to sub-3 ERAs.


  • Chris Tillman: This is my second signing. A one-year, $4-5 million offer to give Tillman a chance to re-establish his career. Tillman has been awful this year (7.85 ERA), but he pitched to a 3.81 ERA in the AL East from 2012-16.
I've suggested this in the past with Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow and it hasn't really benefited the teams that tried it. In this case, there's no injury history with Tillman.

That's my assessment. What would you do?





Sunday, August 27, 2017

Maybe It's Freddy's Team Now, Guys



Freddy Galvis should be a popular player for these down-and-inept Phillies.

He makes flashy plays from shortstop and gets big hits at the plate. He is continually improving and is well respected by coaches and teammates.

More than anyone, Galvis is the guy who keeps getting knocked down, and keeps getting back up to play. He loves the game and wants to play 162.

Galvis should be a popular player. But he isn't.

I'm struck by the number (seemingly all) of Phils fans who have long considered Galvis a bench player starting by default. And now that he's a proven starter, a guy who will be moving on as soon as feasible.

That would be 2019, when Freddy is a free agent. Most fans have him playing out a final year as a utility player, then moving on.

I would not be so sure about that.

I've written about this before, but it's worth repeating: players love Freddy. Coaches love Freddy. He brings an elite-level play (defense) to a club that has almost no elite-level play anywhere on the diamond.

"The guy is unbelievable, man," Aaron Nola said. "I wouldn't want anybody to be at shortstop other than that guy. He's been great for us. He's our leader."

I think there's a good deal of evidence the Phillies are at least open to the idea of committing to Freddy long-term. You have to read between the lines, but the signs are there:

* The Play: Freddy's OPS the past three years steadily climbed from .546 to .645 to .673. and .711 this year. That's the improvement you want to see. 

He has backed up 20 homers and 17 steals last year with 11 and 13 to date this season. More importantly, the K/W ratio improved from 136/25 to a more palatable 93/35.

The defense is electric. Galvis' defensive WAR number is baffling, but he matches Andrelton Simmons stat for stat. And Simmons is acknowledged as perhaps the best defensive SS ever.

Overall, Galvis ranks as the 13th best SS by Fangraphs WAR.

* The Faith: Why are the Phillies so committed to letting Galvis meet his goal of playing 162? A sop to a young veteran? Seems unlikely.

Manager Mackanin and Lt. Bowa are hardly the sentimental types. This certainly looks like a deferential nod to a player who is part of the future.

Mack has issued many challenges to these young Phils, and nobody has met his more than Freddy. Since installed in the second spot in the batting order June 22, Freddy has hit .280 with a .745 OPS in 57 games.

* The Leader: This is a team desperate for a leader and Galvis has filled the role. The comments from guys like Nola and Tommy Joseph and others are sincere.

Some deride the "leader" angle as an old-school idea, but it's not. Baseball clubhouses are no different from Fortune 500 companies. Leadership is a crucial part of success.

The Phillies under Mack/Klentak have shown a consistent willingness to reward those who meet challenges and perform (see Odubal's big contract). Conversely, failure to give effort and perform is met with tough love (Nick Williams, circa 2016).

I think management values Freddy a whole lot more than fans realize.

* The Minors: The final clue comes from Lehigh Valley, where prospects JP Crawford and Scott Kingery are playing different infield positions.

For different reasons it might appear. At second base, Cesar Hernandez has already been discussed in trades. But he's missed a chunk of the season and needs to remain in the lineup batting leadoff to enhance his value.

That's not the case with Freddy. So the Phillies are moving a top prospect to another position just so Galvis can meet a personal goal of starting all 162 at shortstop? I'm not sure that makes sense.

I think the Phils love Galvis for his defense, the stability he brings and the way he relates to his teammates. Most of all, they can hold him up as an example in the clubhouse. Work hard, commit to the team and good things will come to you.

I don't know what the future holds, but I wouldn't be so quick to write Freddy out of the script.

Sunday, August 20, 2017

Rhys Hoskins Isn't Who We Thought He Was





Let's compare two players, both first basemen.

Player A is a 6-3, 225-pound right-hand hitter drafted in the 8th round from Texas A&M who crushed pro pitching from day one. This player was consistently downgraded by scouting services, with Keith Law calling him "a pretty limited player" and "probably a platoon/bench bat."

Even after breaking out with a .314-35-106 in high A, Baseball America rated him the #11 prospect in his organization.

Player B is a 6-4, 225-pound right-hand hitter drafted in the 5th round from California State University who crushed pro pitching from day one. This player was consistently downgraded by scouting services, with John Sickels writing: "above-average power with solid pure hitting skills to match, limited to first base defensively which can be a tough profile for a right-handed hitter."


Even after breaking out with a .320-17-90 in high A, Sickels rated him the #11 prospect in his organization.


Player A is Paul Goldschmidt. Player B is Rhys Hoskins.

Goldschmidt's debut came Aug. 1, 2011 and he put up an impressive .808 OPS with eight homers in 48 games. He has since become one of the best players in MLB.

Hoskins took the field Aug. 10 and to date has four homers and a .957 OPS.

This is a fascinating comparison to me. I think Goldschmidt is almost criminally underrated, almost never mentioned in the same sentence with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper.

Yet, Goldy has five straight All-Star appearances, a pair of Gold Gloves and two second-place MVP finishes. He is likely to win it this year.

To date, Hoskins seems equally able to avoid the spotlight. His monster 2016 campaign was partially overshadowed by teammate Dylan Cozens, who bashed 40 homers to Hoskins' 38.

Hoskins' anticipated call-up was followed by an 0-12 start, just six hitless at-bats from the Phils' record. I still doubt many people have Hoskins among the top three Phillies' prospects.

So why did the scouting evaluations miss so badly on these players?

Obviously, plodding, right-handed, power-hitting first basemen are a dubious lot. Having seen a lot of Darren Ruf and Tommy Joseph in recent years, Phillies' fans know this well.

Perhaps the answer lies in the strike zone judgment. Goldschmidt and Hoskins both put up strong walk totals in the minor leagues. Goldy walked 82 times against 92 Ks in 2011. Hoskins had 64 walks against 75 Ks at Lehigh Valley. He has eight walks and five Ks with the big club.

Joseph, on the other hand, has 54 walks against 177 Ks in two years.

It's that extra millisecond to judge the pitch location that seems to set the better players apart. Or maybe it's a millisecond quicker swing.

Whatever it is, Rhys Hoskins is in good company.


Thursday, July 27, 2017

In Praise of Freddy



On June 21, despite a three-hit game, Freddy Galvis' batting average stood at a weakly .238.

There was no indication of anything more. Galvis maintained a Major League locker for five-plus years with his glove. His offense rarely offered any sustained contributions.

Then manager Pete Mackanin moved Galvis to the two hole for the June 22 game against the Cardinals. It generated no attention. Mackanin frequently moves hitters up and down the lineup, and relievers into different roles -- a habit that often earns him the wrath of fans and writers.

Freddy Galvis is why Mackanin tinkers.

In 29 games from the second spot, Freddy has hit .277 with six doubles, five homers and a triple -- good for a .471 slugging percentage. More importantly, he's drawn nine walks for a un-Galvis-like .331 on base percentage.

Even more importantly, the Phillies have scored 4.4 runs a game and the record is 13-16. Not great, but far superior to the 3.8 runs a game and 22-48 record of the first 70 games.

When the first pitch is thrown Friday against the visiting Braves, Galvis will be at his usual shortstop position. He plans to play all 162. In the bottom of the first, he'll bat second.

And the Phils are a better team with him there.



Monday, July 24, 2017

Phillies Should Trade For This Guy




Gerrit Cole was just 22 years old when he pitched his ass off for the Pirates in the 2013 NL Division Series.

In 11 innings, the electric Cole gave the Cardinals five hits, three runs and two walks for a stingy 0.636 WHIP. The No. 1 overall pick of the 2011 MLB Draft seemed headed for superstardom.

It hasn't happened. Now 26, Cole is a very good ML starting pitcher, but one who is repped by Scotty Hardball Boras.

Not since Katie Holmes married Mr. Scientology has a divorce been so obviously destined.

The Pirates are not going to be able to sign Cole. Of course, that doesn't mean they need to move him now either -- especially when it represents selling low.

Then again, few teams possess the prospect inventory the Phillies have. This is a deal that makes a great deal of sense.

Principal Owner John S. Middleton does not strike me as a patient man. And he has watched the Braves race past his franchise with a rebuild on steroids. Atlanta is executing a bold, two-track philosophy -- trading for young prospects at the same time they are adding veterans.

The Phils appear to be plodding along in comparison. I don't think that is going to continue much longer with Col. Middleton upstairs.

Obligatory bullet points:

The Phillies need starting pitching. This deal most likely isn't happening. But it does represent the biggest need. The Phillies will not be competitive again until they add some reliable starters alongside Aaron Nola. They will be looking for a veteran to replace Jeremy Hellickson.

Free agency offers no answers. Guys like Jake Arietta, Yu Darvish and Johnny Cueto are no fit agewise. That means taking a shot on a mediocre arm like Chris Tillman, Matt Moore or Michael Pineda. Given the largely failed experiments with Hellickson and Clay Buchholz, that feels about as appealing as a rectal exam.

Too many prospects? Yes, it's possible to have too many prospects in the abstract sense. We are seeing some of that system pressure now with Scott Kingery and Rhys Hoskins stuck in Triple AAA. ML tryouts become shorter, patience wears thin, and, hasty decisions can mean you end up developing players for other teams.

The Phillies system is having a phenomenal 2017. SP Sixto Sanchez is like the long-forgotten raffle ticket that yields a Porsche Boxster. The aforementioned Kingery is headed for a 30-30 season. Every team has a winning record. OFs Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams are having terrific seasons at the big club.

Add to that yet another top 10 prospect on the way via a soon-to-be-executed Pat Neshak deal, and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft. In short, I'd like to see us trim the cream a little and convert it into an established player.

Mickey Moniak, Franklyn Kilome, Cesar Hernandez and Drew Anderson are some pieces I'd put on the table here. Perhaps the GMs work in a Knapp-for-Cervelli angle to relieve the always-cash-poor Buccos of the $22-odd million owed the catcher.

Why Cole? Valid. After all, it isn't like we can leave Boras in Pittsburgh. And this is a player who has regressed, which I generally find as a red flag. Cole has had problems with home runs, an affliction that won't improve at the Bank.

I think the Phillies need to go big. There's a dank staleness hanging around this team so thick, you can almost see the mold starting to grow.

This organization has had great success taking talented SPs who have disappointed in other cities and making them stars. Steve Carlton, John Denny and Curt Schilling to name three.

Cole is 27 in September. He isn't an ace, but with a change of address, he might be ready for that stardom. He might be ready to lead a staff as a young veteran. He might be ready to earn a $150 million deal.

I wonder what Matt Klentak thinks?