Saturday, May 21, 2016
Should the Phillies Make a Play for Trout?
Everyone in Philliesland has an opinion on what kid GM Matt Klentak should do next.
He should promote Nick Williams; He should acquire a bat; He should trade the No. 1 draft pick for Andrew Luck. OK, only long-suffering Birds' fans dream of that last one.
The issue of the day is whether the Phils' 24-18 record is anything remotely real. I don't think it is, but that has nothing to do with what I am proposing here.
The next time the Angels drop seven of eight, MacPhail, Middleton & Klentak should dial up Anaheim GM Billy Eppler and offer any five prospects on the Philly system for Mike Trout.
The Angels are in a tough spot, since they really can't get comparable value for Trout. There's only one other player remotely like him, and the Nationals aren't trading Bryce Harper.
Trout is roughly the equivelant of two All-Star caliber players. Baseball Reference tells me that a 5+ WAR is an All Star. Trout averaged about 9.4 WAR the past four seasons. You put Trout alongside Herrera and a breathing body and the Phils are getting 15+ WAR from their OF.
That would make them immediate contenders.
Still, our top FIVE propspects, you say? Won't that devastate out greatest resource -- the bountiful farm? No.
Such a trade is still a lopsided win for the Phils, which is why Eppler will smile politely and pretend he has an incoming call. But ... maybe Trout and his agent get involved. Maybe his overwhelming desire to play close to home makes the Angels think about it. After all, Anaheim has one of the worst farm systems anyone has ever seen.
A few reasons why this is a good deal for the Phils:
1. It's prospects from the prospect list. That means Nola, Franco, Herrera, Neris, Eickhoff and Velasquez are not eligible. Fact is most prospects do not pan out. Remember Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, Lou Marson, Jon Singleton, Jared Cosart or Anthony Gose? They were all prospects Phils' fans did not want to trade.
2. Yes, it will hurt to give up Crawford, but... You've got to give up something to get something, and when you're getting a future Hall of Famer a full three years from his prime, you only hope that an elite SS prospect who hails from Cali will entice the Angels enough to bite.
3. A Quick Reload. Phils have that No. 1 pick in a draft that has no Harper and no Trout. Various accounts have MMK preparing to spread around their vast draft cash pool with an eye toward adding two, or even three 1st round caliber talents. In addition, they are expected to sign two of the top international prospects. The Phils could ship out their top five prospects and still have a top 10 system heading into the offseason.
4. Depth, depth, depth. Some of the Phils' farm standouts thus far are not even on many top 10 or top 20 lists. Guys like OFs Dylan Cozens (an Eastern League-leading 11 HRs, 9 SBs) and Jose Pujols (leading the Sally League in HRs), and 2B Scott Kingery are playing their way onto the MMK farm reports. Fact is, the Phils' system is loaded with No. 3-4 starters and No. 6 hitters. They need an ace starter and a cleanup masher.
Swapping some of that depth could get them the latter.
The returns would be swift and strong. The Bank would sell out every night again.
Trout would become the biggest athlete in Philadelphia since Allen Iverson took the Phils to the NBA Finals. And does anybody doubt he has the stones to handle it?
It's a pipe dream I realize.
But summer and baseball are what dreams are all about.
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1. Short answer: No.
ReplyDelete2. I don't see how deal gets done without Angels demanding Nola or Velasquez. After Crawford, they'd want pitching and more pitching in this deal.
3. OK, let's stick with your proposal. Angels take Crawford, Williams, Randolph, Thompson, Eflin. (Well, that's probably who I would take.) ... That's a pretty huge hit for the Phillies, as it should be. ... However, I suspect there are teams that would trade MORE than that. Angels aren't going to deal with Phillies in a vacuum. There will be other bidders. That will drive up the price for the Phillies to something even more unpalatable. What if you HAD to add Velasquez to seal the deal? What if it was even worse than that? That's probably the reality of what the trade would take.
4. So, no, I just sit back and keep building a killer farm system, spending on top international free agents and wait for Trout or Harper to hit free agency, at which point I instruct Comcast to send their agent a blank check and starting bid of a half billion dollars.
Great thoughts as always, Chris. You're right, that is a pretty impressive haul for the Halos, four top prospects are in Triple A, very nearly ML ready. I know MLB isn't quite like the NBA in terms of players/agents dictating where they want to play, but I wonder if Trout and his agent made it known that he would not resign with any team but the Phillies -- would that have an impact? Now the Yankees might not care, figuring they'd have him for three years and enough money to change his mind. But do the Yankees (or any other team) have five (or more) enticing prospects like this?
ReplyDeleteThe Red Sox -- even after the Kimbrel trade -- have enough prospects to outbid the Phillies, and they have major-league surplus, too. They could make Jackie Bradley Jr. a nice "throw-in" as a Trout replacement. (Though I guess Phillies could throw in Herrera in the same fashion.) Yankees don't have the prospects, but a few other teams do, if they wanted to get involved.
Deleteyeah, good point. If Bradley keeps this up, he might be another Mike Trout!
ReplyDelete