Rhys Hoskins Isn't Who We Thought He Was

Let's compare two players, both first basemen.

Player A is a 6-3, 225-pound right-hand hitter drafted in the 8th round from Texas A&M who crushed pro pitching from day one. This player was consistently downgraded by scouting services, with Keith Law calling him "a pretty limited player" and "probably a platoon/bench bat."

Even after breaking out with a .314-35-106 in high A, Baseball America rated him the #11 prospect in his organization.

Player B is a 6-4, 225-pound right-hand hitter drafted in the 5th round from California State University who crushed pro pitching from day one. This player was consistently downgraded by scouting services, with John Sickels writing: "above-average power with solid pure hitting skills to match, limited to first base defensively which can be a tough profile for a right-handed hitter."

Even after breaking out with a .320-17-90 in high A, Sickels rated him the #11 prospect in his organization.

Player A is Paul Goldschmidt. Player B is Rhys Hoskins.

Goldschmidt's debut came Aug. 1, 2011 and he put up an impressive .808 OPS with eight homers in 48 games. He has since become one of the best players in MLB.

Hoskins took the field Aug. 10 and to date has four homers and a .957 OPS.

This is a fascinating comparison to me. I think Goldschmidt is almost criminally underrated, almost never mentioned in the same sentence with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper.

Yet, Goldy has five straight All-Star appearances, a pair of Gold Gloves and two second-place MVP finishes. He is likely to win it this year.

To date, Hoskins seems equally able to avoid the spotlight. His monster 2016 campaign was partially overshadowed by teammate Dylan Cozens, who bashed 40 homers to Hoskins' 38.

Hoskins' anticipated call-up was followed by an 0-12 start, just six hitless at-bats from the Phils' record. I still doubt many people have Hoskins among the top three Phillies' prospects.

So why did the scouting evaluations miss so badly on these players?

Obviously, plodding, right-handed, power-hitting first basemen are a dubious lot. Having seen a lot of Darren Ruf and Tommy Joseph in recent years, Phillies' fans know this well.

Perhaps the answer lies in the strike zone judgment. Goldschmidt and Hoskins both put up strong walk totals in the minor leagues. Goldy walked 82 times against 92 Ks in 2011. Hoskins had 64 walks against 75 Ks at Lehigh Valley. He has eight walks and five Ks with the big club.

Joseph, on the other hand, has 54 walks against 177 Ks in two years.

It's that extra millisecond to judge the pitch location that seems to set the better players apart. Or maybe it's a millisecond quicker swing.

Whatever it is, Rhys Hoskins is in good company.