Popular opinion in Philliesland these days has the squad holding another year of tryouts for the youngsters, keeping the best, and signing Manny Machado or Bryce Harper to a megadeal in the 2018 offseason.
Boom.
Only that probably isn't going to happen. I mean the first part is a given, but realistically, the Phils will likely have to aim lower in their return to big-time free agency.
I'll return to that momentarily. First, an explanation.
Yes, the Phils have the GDP of a small country's worth of cash to spend. What they don't have is any kind of winning atmosphere.
And it does matter. Let's face it, as long as starting pitchers two through five remain some mix of Eickhoff, Velasquez, Thompson, Pivetta, Eflin and Lively -- the squad is heading for another 90-loss season.
That would make it four straight. Of the 35 biggest contracts ever handed out in Major League Baseball, none has been signed by a team that lost 90 games even twice in a row.
I looked at every contract from Giancarlo Stanton's 13-year, $325 million deal to Carl Crawford's seven-year, $142 million pact.
Only twice has a team coming off a 90-loss season signed one of those 35 megadeals. Both of those teams had some variables not present with these Phillies.
Let's look at those two contracts:
* Alex Rodriguez signs a 10-year, $252 million deal with the Texas Rangers (2001). While the Rangers were coming off a 71-91 season, it was a bit of a fluke. They had won 95 games the previous year.
* Robinson Cano signs a 10-year, $240 million deal with the Seattle Mariners (2014). Seattle was also coming off a 71-91 record when they lavished cash on Cano. However, the Mariners had signed Felix Hernandez to MLB's 18th largest contract the previous winter (seven years, $175 million), so they had one of baseball's best pitchers in place.
That's it.
The money always gets all the attention. But lots of teams have lots of cash. A winning situation is obviously a big part of the equation as well.
And it's not just the Yankees and Red Sox signing these megadeals. Teams signing the top 35 contracts include the Giants, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, Twins, Tigers, Orioles, Reds, Nationals, Rockies, Rangers, Marlins and Mariners.
There are some reasons for hope. Repped by Dan Lozano, Machado is said to want to set a salary record. That makes him very similar to Rodriguez and Cano.
In fact, absent the Felix signing, the Phils sort of resemble the pre-Cano Mariners. That Seattle franchise had lost at least 95 three times in the previous six seasons.
As for Harper, he simply loves playing at Citizen's Bank Park. Harper has 12 career homers there, the most of any road park.
But most likely, the Phils will have to aim lower and absurdly overpay. Think of that potential deal as the Jayson Werth signing that enabled the Nationals to take that step forward and in later years sign Stephen Strasburg (No. 18 contract; seven years, $175 million) and Max Scherzer (No. 11; seven years, $210 million).
OFs Charlie Blackmon and A.J. Pollack are among those second-tier options that would greatly improve the ballclub.
What say you?
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