The Phils at 50

When the Phillies take the field for their 50th game today, they will do so as a first-place squad.

I don't think anyone saw that coming. My own prediction was for 74-88, but that was pre-Jake Arrieta. Since I agreed that Jake is worth three wins, that would put me at 77-85.

It certainly appears Cap'n Kap's group has a chance to go well beyond that number.

When you're going for 30 out of 50, obviously a lot of things are going right. Three things in particular have caught my eye over the last week or so:

1. pitching, PITCHING!, Pitching?: What began spring training as a huge question mark morphed into a gigantic strength.

The starters have a 3.33 ERA, the fourth-best mark in baseball. Nick Pivetta is the revelation from this group -- a young dynamic arm who actually began refining his power curve-high fastball combination last September.

Add a surprisingly effective changeup and vastly improved location and Pivetta looks to have staying power. The 6-foot-5 Canadian has an 0.47 ERA over his last three starts, with 25 Ks and 2 walks.

"I'd say this current level of team success will continue as long as the starting pitching keeps performing as it has," John Kruk said the other night.

"I would agree with that," T-Mac said obediently.

I'm not sure I do. I see an offense that has yet to find any consistency or identity. You have core-order guys like Rhys Hoskins (.167 in May), Aaron Altherr (.190 overall), Carlos Santana (.200 overall) and Scott Kingery (.214 in May, .221 overall) who remain in the struggle zone.

BTW, after slamming 18 homers in his first 34 games, Hoskins is hitting .215 with 6 dingers in nearly half a season. I still believe in Rhys Hoskins, but I sure would like to see him have a good week or two.

Defensively, the consistency is even more elusive. The Phils are regularly spectacular on defense, particularly in center field and catcher. Unfortunately, they are just as often sloppy and undisciplined.

In short, I do think these 2-1 wins could become 6-4 wins as the season drags into the dog days. There's much room for improvement in the non-pitching areas.

2. Jorge Alfaro: Someone asked me the other day how I could be so excited about Alfaro when he still has major holes in his game.

I thought about that and the answer is I'm so excited about Alfaro BECAUSE he still has major holes in his game.

Jorge is already changing games because he can do things no other catcher in the game can. Like this:

I was watching this game and the cameras followed Ender Inciarte into the dugout. The bewildered look never left his face as he sought comprehension from teammates.

Alfaro has the five hardest throws by a catcher this season. He has a howitzer and it is accurate. He is tied for the Major League lead with 10 runners caught stealing. He's nabbed 10 out of 29 overall, but 8 of the last 11.

We are witnessing one of the best things about being a baseball fan: a talented young player realizing he belongs at the highest level. The confidence is growing with each game.

A word about the bat and that sad-looking .648 OPS. Over the past month, Alfaro is hitting .292 with a .773 OPS.

Among position players, Alfaro is third in WAR, ahead of Hoskins, Santana and Franco. This despite starting just 33 of the first 49 games.

We've got a player here.

3. Health: If you're a superstitious Phillies fan, you might stop reading here. The rest of you can continue with admiration and thanks to trainer Scott Sheridan for how healthy the squad has been.

I've been a fan for going on 40 years and can't remember playing the first 50 games with essentially the same starting eight position players, the same five starting pitchers and the same back-end bullpen composition.

Bullpenners Pat Heshek and Tommy Hunter were injured in spring training, as was starter Jerad Eickhoff. And I don't quite consider JP Crawford the starting shortstop yet.

These are the only significant injuries to date.

After the 50th game of 2017, the Phillies had lost Howie Kendrick from the lineup and Aaron Nola and Vince Velasquez from the rotation.

The record was 20-30.

What a difference a year makes.