Prediction: the Phightins break out of the solo rep column and send two players to Nationals Park for the All-Star Game next month.
Aaron Nola and Odubel Herrera could not be more different and the uniqueness of their individual stories is part of what makes baseball the greatest game.
Let's start with Nola, who is virtually an automatic selection. In fact, were this game being played anyplace other than Max Scherzer's backyard, Aaron would be a strong candidate to start for the National League.
No. 27 has been that good: 8-2 with a 2.55 ERA and ranks in the top 10 in virtually every category. The most important and impressive stat is his 4.2 WAR, second among NL pitchers.
When the Phillies selected Nola in 2014, scouts considered him a polished pitcher and perhaps the safest pick in that draft. His ceiling was low, but his floor was high, the thinking went.
How the crafty Cajun became so much more than that is a remarkable confirmation of pitching as an artform.
Start with Nola's velocity. Twenty-four-year-old pitchers don't suddenly add fast to their fastball, but that's exactly what Aaron did in 2017. Nola finished 2016 with a fastball average of 89.8 MPH. When he started 2017, that number rose to 92.4 MPH.
The numbers have continued to rise across the board. In Nola's first full month as a Phillie -- August 2015 -- he averaged: 90.8, fastball; 76.8, breaking; 82.5, offspeed. This month, those numbers are: 93.2, 79.1 and 85.5.
The crafty Aaron Nola, who came into the league with a host of fluttering and diving secondary pitches, is now a borderline hard thrower. When he wants to be, that is. When he needs it, Aaron can fire a 96 MPH four-seamer.
That's not all. His four pitches have evolved. In 2016, Nola threw offspeed pitches 8 percent of the time. In May 2018, 26 percent of his pitches were of the offspeed variety.
These numbers speak to the stunning progression of Nola's change-up. When he came into the league, Nola had two plus pitches, the four-seamer and the curveball, and a show-me change.
Again, it is somewhat rare for pitchers to develop a plus pitch at the major-league level. Nola's change-up comes with the perfect speed differential and it has late movement.
In short, peak Aaron Nola is in complete command of three plus pitches he can locate in any quadrant of the strike zone. Pitching is an artform and we are watching a gifted artist at work.
The Phillies should give Nola a blank five-year contract this offseason and tell him to fill in the number. He's that good and that important.
Let's talk about Odubel Herrera -- the Human Rain Delay II, the Flipper, He Who Drops His Bat and Stares at Good Pitches to Hit.
Despite all his infuriatingly frustrating quirky habits, the man can hit. Whereas the perpetually placid Nola was a top 10 draft pick and star from day one, Odoobie was decidedly not.
We all know the story: Rule 5 draft pick, big star, bat flipper, big contract, conduit for Mike Schmidt idiocy.
As a hitter, Odubel is inconsistently consistent. His OPS over his first three years ranged narrowly from .762 to .781. Even this year, the maddeningly wild swings in production continue within Herrera's breakout campaign (.869).
From April 5 to May 17, Odubel hit .381 with a 1.041 OPS. From May 18 to June 12, he hit .161 with a .422 OPS. And now he is magma hot again, hitting .472 with a 1.514 OPS his last eight games.
Herrera certainly felt comfortable at Nationals Park last night, ripping four hits and his fifth homer in five games.
It wouldn't surprise me to see Nola spin eight shutout innings this afternoon.
Both deserve to return to the park and represent the National League on July 18.
No comments:
Post a Comment