Saturday, July 14, 2018

Trade Wars Are Easy To Win




In a transaction that generated a few ripples, the Houston Astros demoted closer Ken Giles to Triple A Fresno Wednesday.

Apparently, Giles, owner of a 4.99 ERA, offered some R-rated feedback to manager A.J. Hinch as he departed his relief outing Tuesday. He entered with Houston holding a 4-0 lead and is the primary reason they would lose 6-5 two innings later.

The outing and the demotion are just the latest rocks in what has been a difficult road for Giles. Fans are turning on him. A headline on a Houston-area column: Like it or not, you haven't seen the last of Ken Giles.

Earlier this year, he blew a save against the Yankees and did this:



Giles, of course, is only in Houston because Phillies GM Matt Klentak traded him there. That trade is one of several player swaps that are turning into huge wins for the Philly side. The trade route is the primary reason the Phils sit in first place at a stunning 53-40.

Let's break them down:

1. Giles for Vince Velasquez (Dec. 10, 2015):  This deal also sent pitchers Brett Oberholtzer, Mark Appel and Thomas Eshelman to Philly. But the first two are out of the organization, and Eshelman owns a 6.32 ERA in Triple A.

This is a Giles-for-Velasquez deal. And maybe Houston is satisfied from their end. Giles did save 34 games and pitch to a 2.30 ERA last year as the closer on a World Series winner.

But his other two seasons were and are clunkers, and the entire relationship feels like it is nearing the end. I would not be surprised to see Kenny shipped elsewhere soon.

As for Velasquez, the Phils endured their own difficulties with the mercurial righty -- mostly with health and emotions. I don't believe he's ever punched himself or cursed out a manager.

I wrote earlier this year about Bad Vinnie fading from view. While not quite a reliable stud yet, things are trending that way with VV. Toss out a 10-run stinker vs Milwaukee June 8, and Velasquez has a 2.52 ERA over his last 11 starts (60.2 innings).

I will always prioritize starting pitchers who throw 180 innings over relievers who throw 65. The Phillies control Vinnie until 2022. He is a solid, young asset and this deal is a solid W for Klentak.

2. Cole Hamels and Jake Diekman for a bunch of Rangers (July 24, 2015): Ruben Amaro's last-act, lame-duck deal is looking better for the Phillies with each week.

The Phils netted OF Nick Williams, C Jorge Alfaro and Ps Jake Thompson, Jerad Eickhoff, Alec Asher and Matt Harrison.

To be sure, the Harrison addition was a concession to Texas, as the Phils picked up the $33 million on his contract.

The Phils gained three controllable pieces in this deal. Williams (.273, 23 HRs, 89 RBIs) looks to be the RF of the future, while Jerad Eickhoff (3.87 ERA in 65 starts) will at some point reclaim his rotation spot.

But Alfaro is the guy the $33 million bought, in my opinion. A hitter with immense power, Alfaro leads the National League with 17 runners cut down stealing. Overall, there's a sense that he is about one-quarter of the player he will be in five years.

This three-for-one deal sent the Phils' rebuild surging forward. Ironically, Texas is now looking to trade Hamels in a similar, albeit much less return, deal.

3. The One-Offs. One particular trade area the Phillies, under both Amaro and Klentak, are thriving, it is the short sale. The veteran who can help another team down the stretch, or plug a hole until a prospect is ready, swapped for a mid-level prospect.

While the players going out rarely have much left to give, the return has been enormous.

For P Roberto Hernandez, the Phillies got P Victor Arano (33 games, 2.38 ERA). For SS Jimmy Rollins, they got P Zach Eflin (7-2, 3.15). For P Jonathan Papelbon, they got P Nick Pivetta (4.58 ERA, 113 Ks in 96 innings).

And most recently, Klentak imported P Enyel De Los Santos (9-3, 1.89 ERA in Triple A) for SS Freddy Galvis.

****

It is a difficult thing to be so consistently successful on the trade front. It is even more remarkable for this front office, given how disappointing their top 10 draft picks have been the past four years.

Whether it's luck, or just shrewd advanced talent evaluation, the Phillies' positive trade balance to date is worth remembering as they consider sending prospects out for veteran help.






No comments:

Post a Comment