The Phillies seem to be fading from contention, exposed as a pretender not quite good enough to play at a postseason level.
That can be one of the most painful realizations for fans riding that exhilarating journey of unexpected contention. There is certainly a lot of frustration with the Phils about deals not made, players not benched and, ultimately, wins on paper not won on the field.
It seems like a good time for a time out to regain our perspective on just how good this franchise is right now. In fact, the best part of the season is yet to come.
Once free agency kicks off in November, all eyes are going to be pointed at Philadelphia. While the Braves appear to be a fearsome force stocked with young stars and a loaded farm system, they do not and will not match the Phillies' budget.
With history and informed projections as our guide, it's fair to assume the Phillies will outspend Atlanta by 20-25 percent.
So there's that.
But there's more. The best way to field a consistently competitive team is to through strong player development. And it gets harder once you start winning and signing free agents.
The Phillies are winning with about 15 players who represent their young core -- from Victor Arano in the bullpen to Aaron Nola, Cy Young candidate.
It would be easy to assume they stripped the cupboard bare -- and midway through the season it appeared that way. Many of their remaining prospects were struggling.
Since then, a couple of very promising trends developed down on the farm:
* The Ones -- From 2015-17, the Phillies drafted three consecutive OFs in the top 10. And as June dawned, all three were looking like poor choices. In some cases, very poor.
But things are looking up for Cornelius Randolph, Mickey Moniak and Adam Haseley.
Since July 1, Randolph is hitting .323 with 20 walks vs. 27 Ks for Reading. That includes a .402 on-base and a .449 slugging. Having just turned 21, Randolph might be back on track.
Since July 7, Moniak is hitting .293/.348/.482 for high-A Clearwater. Mickey has 15 walks vs. 25 Ks, a dramatic improvement in strike-zone management. The power is finally appearing, with 15 doubles, 2 triples and 4 homers. A young 20, the 2016 No. 1 overall pick is emerging a bit.
Since July 4, Haseley is hitting .325/.403/.516. That includes his final five games at Clearwater and the rest in Reading. Very strong across the board, with 8 homers, and 17 walks to 21 Ks. At 22, Haseley stands a good chance of making his Major League debut sometime next season.
Obviously, we need to see more, but what looked to be a downright depressing run of wasted top 10 picks looks a whole lot better today.
* A New Stud -- There is a young man just 17 years old who is destroying Gulf Coast League pitching. And teen phenom Luis Garcia was signed as a strong-glove, light-bat shortstop.
Instead, Garcia is fast becoming the Phils' most intriguing prospect. Through 43 games, he's hitting .369/.433/.488. For a 17-year-old player, these are insane numbers. With 15 walks and 21 Ks, Garcia shows remarkable strike-zone judgment.
The Phillies' Sal Agostinelli appears to have done it again. The international scouting director has an incredible eye for talent. Garcia, who is shooting up prospect lists, was acquired for a $2.5 million signing bonus in 2017.
All of this adds up to the No. 9 farm system on former GM Jim Bowden's list last week. That is just one opinion, but it is a strong endorsement of the organization's player-development process.
The Phillies are not just trying to win today, or next season. A strong organization top to bottom that wins for generations (think Cardinals) is what every fan base craves.
While it remains to be seen whether these Phillies can achieve that lofty status, their immediate future looks to be incredibly bright.
And that should make these tough losses on the field a little easier to stomach.
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