Could Rhys Hoskins Bat Leadoff?

Rhys Hoskins

Former Phillies' managers Larry Bowa and Charlie Manuel were perpetually stalked by lineup experts.

Fans frequently interrupted Manuel's public meals with their lineup tips. Talk radio hosts caught on and the lineup shakeup became regular programming from 2002 to 2008.

By far the hottest take: moving Bobby Abreu to the leadoff spot. A marvelous hitter, Abreu excelled in all the third-hole hitter traits -- power, speed, average and on-base percentage.

That last one captivated us. In nine years with the Phillies, Abreu walked 947 times, stole 254 bases and compiled a .416 OBP.

That's about as great as it gets for a leadoff man. Yet it never happened. Background whispers circulated that Abreu didn't want to do it, while the managers claimed the offensive gains would be offset by the loss of BA's power from the three hole.

Whatever.

Old-school thinking still dominated the way lineup cards were made out during those days. It doesn't any longer. Gabe Kapler is the new sheriff and comes with an iPad full of radical analytical ideas.

If the 2018 Phillies came with its 2005 roster, Bobby Abreu would bat leadoff. If you follow that logic, Rhys Hoskins should be a candidate.

In 50 games, Hoskins clubbed 18 homers with a .618 slugging percentage. But he also walked an Abreu-like 37 times for a .396 OBP.

The big first baseman did nearly all of his damage batting cleanup -- the traditional spot for a lumbering power hitter. Hoskins is not swift on the bases, a point of divergence from the Abreu comp.

Still, some analytical folks favor batting your best hitters high in the lineup so they get as many at-bats as possible. It makes sense and I would definitely make sure Rhys batted in the first inning of games (as long as he picks up where he left off).

Slotting him leadoff might seem a little wild, but it isn't a new idea. The Milwaukee Brewers batted Eric Thames leadoff 16 times late in the season. Thames swatted 31 homers, stole 4 bases, but walked 75 times with a .359 OBP.

So the profile is similar, but Thames doesn't get on base nearly as well as our man Rhys. For what it's worth, Thames only hit .210 with a .329 OBP from the leadoff position.

There is no record of Hoskins batting leadoff and why would there be? He's a power hitter. In 62 plate appearances leading off an inning last year, Hoskins drew 14 walks (vs. 12 Ks) for a healthy .387 OBP.

Our comparison is incomplete without mentioning that Milwaukee elevated Thames amid significant desperation. They simply did not have a decent leadoff hitter. The Phillies, on the other hand, have one of the best in 2B Cesar Hernandez.

Leading off the past two years, Hernandez contributed a steady and strong .372 OBP. One flaw from 2017: in 124 first-inning leadoff at-bats, (Cesar missed significant time with an injury), Hernandez hit just .216 with a .298 OBP.

In my opinion, hitting leadoff is about jumping the opponent from the first pitch and getting a lead on the board. The Phillies were not really strong in that area all those many years Jimmy Rollins led off, and they weren't very good at it last year.

Will Kapler shake things up?