Saturday, February 17, 2018

Phillies Primed for a Huge Year (and that includes December)

Why are these guys smiling?


The game held no playoff implications and really no significance whatsoever when the Phillies took the field Aug. 19, 2017 at AT&T Park in San Francisco.
Losers of six straight, the Phils were predictably bad at 43-77 and nearing the end of yet another dreary road trip. Powered by a sixth-inning grand slam by the immortal Ty Kelly, the Phils won 12-9. And they won the getaway game the following afternoon as well.
It didn't register as anything noteworthy at the time, but I am calling it now: Aug. 19, 2017 is the date the Phillies turned the corner. They would go 7-6 the rest of August, 15-13 in September and 1-0 in October.
Most importantly, the front office kept the Mo going through the offseason. Carlos Santana adds a big stick to what should be a legitimately good offense. The Phils scored 358 runs in 75 second-half games, and if they don't surpass 750 runs scored in 2018, I'll be stunned.
By comparison, the 2016 Phillies scored 610 runs. Buckle up, folks, this rebuild is chugging into third base. Now we enter a pivotal phase -- how do MacMiddleTak keep taking even bigger steps forward on and off the field through 2018?

Ready to Win

The lineup is drawing the attention, but the Phils are made to win now elsewhere as well.
I talked in the previous post about the suddenly flush Phillies' bullpen. It's unusual to see a second-division team sporting such a strong relief corps.
Defensively, the squad should range into the gaps like Bruce Springsteen on a stage riser --  particularly up the middle, where SS JP Crawford, future 2B Scott Kingery and CF Odubal Herrera all have outstanding quickness to the ball.
Starting pitching is young and unproven, but there is hope that more than one young pitcher joins Aaron Nola in the rotation of the future.
So let's talk goals and it starts with wins. Yep, for the first time in five years or so, the Phillies' win total is going to be crucial. And it has nothing to do with contending.
But they need to post 75 wins or so to prove to free agents that they have the franchise moving toward playoff baseball. The Cubs are a good analogy here. In 2014, they confirmed they were a team on the rise by boosting their win total from 66 to 73.
A modest jump for sure. But with Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Hendricks, Kyle Schwarber and other blue chippers in the mix, the Cubs were clearly putting something special together.
It was enough to convince Jon Lester, who signed a six-year, $155 million deal. The Lester addition is the one that catapulted the Cubbies to 97 wins in 2015 and a World Series ring a year later.

This Might be Our Guy

I think there's a free agent in the 2019 group who could do the same for the Phillies. No, it's not Manny Machado or Bryce Harper.
The Phils should forget about those guys and aim their bank account at SP Dallas Keuchel. He would be the ace this rotation needs and the champion this clubhouse wants.
Downsides? He'll be 31 by then and likely still repped by Scott Boras. However, Keuchel didn't break through until he was 26 and he enters 2018 with just 984 ML innings. Better still, he's a control pitcher with a late movement that induces weak contact. He should age well.
As for Boras, he likes big numbers, so we give him a big number. After the frigid free agency of 2017, a record seven-year, $225 million deal should put us in the room.
And Keuchel seems resigned to moving on.
RP Pat Neshek said this week the Phillies reminded him of the 2015 Astros.
It makes sense to steal their ace and resemble them even more in the coming years.

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