Phils-Osophy: The All-Star Edition

Prediction: the Phightins break out of the solo rep column and send two players to Nationals Park for the All-Star Game next month.

Aaron Nola and Odubel Herrera could not be more different and the uniqueness of their individual stories is part of what makes baseball the greatest game.

Let's start with Nola, who is virtually an automatic selection. In fact, were this game being played anyplace other than Max Scherzer's backyard, Aaron would be a strong candidate to start for the National League.

No. 27 has been that good: 8-2 with a 2.55 ERA and ranks in the top 10 in virtually every category. The most important and impressive stat is his 4.2 WAR, second among NL pitchers.

When the Phillies selected Nola in 2014, scouts considered him a polished pitcher and perhaps the safest pick in that draft. His ceiling was low, but his floor was high, the thinking went.

How the crafty Cajun became so much more than that is a remarkable confirmation of pitching as an artform.

Start with Nola's velocity. Twenty-four-year-old pitchers don't suddenly add fast to their fastball, but that's exactly what Aaron did in 2017. Nola finished 2016 with a fastball average of 89.8 MPH. When he started 2017, that number rose to 92.4 MPH.

The numbers have continued to rise across the board. In Nola's first full month as a Phillie -- August 2015 -- he averaged: 90.8, fastball; 76.8, breaking; 82.5, offspeed. This month, those numbers are: 93.2, 79.1 and 85.5.

The crafty Aaron Nola, who came into the league with a host of fluttering and diving secondary pitches, is now a borderline hard thrower. When he wants to be, that is. When he needs it, Aaron can fire a 96 MPH four-seamer.

That's not all. His four pitches have evolved. In 2016, Nola threw offspeed pitches 8 percent of the time. In May 2018, 26 percent of his pitches were of the offspeed variety.

These numbers speak to the stunning progression of Nola's change-up. When he came into the league, Nola had two plus pitches, the four-seamer and the curveball, and a show-me change.

Again, it is somewhat rare for pitchers to develop a plus pitch at the major-league level. Nola's change-up comes with the perfect speed differential and it has late movement.

In short, peak Aaron Nola is in complete command of three plus pitches he can locate in any quadrant of the strike zone. Pitching is an artform and we are watching a gifted artist at work.

The Phillies should give Nola a blank five-year contract this offseason and tell him to fill in the number. He's that good and that important.

Let's talk about Odubel Herrera -- the Human Rain Delay II, the Flipper, He Who Drops His Bat and Stares at Good Pitches to Hit.

Despite all his infuriatingly frustrating quirky habits, the man can hit. Whereas the perpetually placid Nola was a top 10 draft pick and star from day one, Odoobie was decidedly not.

We all know the story: Rule 5 draft pick, big star, bat flipper, big contract, conduit for Mike Schmidt idiocy.

As a hitter, Odubel is inconsistently consistent. His OPS over his first three years ranged narrowly from .762 to .781. Even this year, the maddeningly wild swings in production continue within Herrera's breakout campaign (.869).

From April 5 to May 17, Odubel hit .381 with a 1.041 OPS. From May 18 to June 12, he hit .161 with a .422 OPS. And now he is magma hot again, hitting .472 with a 1.514 OPS his last eight games.

Herrera certainly felt comfortable at Nationals Park last night, ripping four hits and his fifth homer in five games.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Nola spin eight shutout innings this afternoon.

Both deserve to return to the park and represent the National League on July 18.

The Next 15 Games Could Decide The Phils Season

Does it feel like the Phillies are playing one tough game after another these days?

It does and they are.

On May 17, the squad set sail for St. Louis (it was REALLY raining) and a four-game set at Busch. Since then, it's been a struggle as Cap'n Kap's team returned home for Atlanta and Toronto, then a rough 10-game swing through Los Angeles, San Francisco and the Cubs on the way back home.

After facing the NL Central-leading Brewers and the always offensive Rockies, the team is back on the road visiting the Brewers.

The grind is real and there is no letup in this schedule, In fact, it is about to get harder. The next 15 games are against all winning teams a combined 181 games over .500.

The brutal run concludes with seven games against the Nationals sandwiched around a three-game visit by the Yankees.

It's always sunny in the Phillies' clubhouse with the buoyant Kap at the wheel. But let's see how he handles this stretch. The squad has had some injuries, some bullpen struggles, and young players in over their heads it seems. Jake Arietta even got a few rips in on the Cap'n during the miserable West Coast trip.

None of that matters now. The Phils have to win a few of these games. It's put up or shut up time. Their backs are against the wall. They have to give 110 percent. And a several other cliches, too.

But if they can win, say, seven games or so, they will be in good shape. The schedule really opens up after that July 1 game vs. Washington.

The ensuing 23 games are against teams a combined 240 games UNDER .500. The lone winning team in that stretch is the Dodgers, who, when the Phils are decent, don't normally fare well on their annual trip east.

A two-game trip to Fenway is followed by an August schedule featuring 12 games against the Marlins, Mets and Padres.

In fact, the Phillies don't play back-to-back series against winning teams until the calendar turns to September and they back up the Nationals with the Cubbies.

So don't let these 13-2 losses get you down.

It really is a long season.

Phillies Report: Desperately Seeking Offense

I could not have been more wrong in my analysis of the 2018 Phillies. This might not be a bad thing in the larger landscape.

My ego can take it, plus I have experience to draw upon. I had the 2017 Eagles in last place.

To recap, I saw Cap'n Kap's group running a solid lineup out nightly to try and outscore mediocre-to-poor pitching on non-Nola nights. To be fair, that was before we signed Jake the Snake.

But I wasn't the only one. One notable scribe explained that it would take at least three young starters making Justify like strides for the squad to be competitive.

That's exactly what's happened, as Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez and Zach Eflin have been pretty good overall.

The Phils have pitched it. With the bats in hand, however, they've produced about as many big hits as solo Art Garfunkel.

Every single hitter in Sunday's lineup was well below his career batting average, with two exceptions. Scott Kingery is a rookie, and Odubal Herrera has roughly equaled his career .289 batting average.

Unfortunately, since peaking at .361 on May 17, the Human Rain Delay II is hitting .169 with a .204 on-base percentage.

It is too soon to make any dramatic conclusions, of course, but what is known is that new hitting coach John Mallee wants his guys taking pitches and having long at-bats. Whether this is sapping aggressiveness or not is a storyline to watch as the summer drags into the dog days.

As it pertains to the future Phils, the balance of power transfer from hitters to pitchers is a good thing. To note the obvious, when you've been a last-place team for five years, it's good to see anyone develop.

To put a finer point on it, it's harder to find and develop pitching than hitting. Finally, pitching is the more important ingredient. After all, despite the Phils horrific hitting, they maintain a winning record.

I expected us to draft a RHP Brady Singer or LHP Matthew Liberatore, and sign a stud starter like LHP Dallas Keuchel.

Suffice to say, the former didn't happen and the latter is looking less and less a possibility.

The Phils drafted 3B Alec Bohm, probably a better value than any pitcher available. But the bonanza lies in free agency. Either OF Bryce Harper or SS Manny Machado would be a wonderful fit and fill several roles (power, on-base ability, lineup fear) of desperate need.

While the Phils are tough to watch at the moment, unless you enjoy strikeouts and stranded runners, the long-term fit between need and availability is very good.

Of course, I already sorta suggested a hard pass from both Machado and Harper.

That can only mean it's looking pretty good one will be wearing Philstripes next spring.

The Phils at 50

When the Phillies take the field for their 50th game today, they will do so as a first-place squad.

I don't think anyone saw that coming. My own prediction was for 74-88, but that was pre-Jake Arrieta. Since I agreed that Jake is worth three wins, that would put me at 77-85.

It certainly appears Cap'n Kap's group has a chance to go well beyond that number.

When you're going for 30 out of 50, obviously a lot of things are going right. Three things in particular have caught my eye over the last week or so:

1. pitching, PITCHING!, Pitching?: What began spring training as a huge question mark morphed into a gigantic strength.

The starters have a 3.33 ERA, the fourth-best mark in baseball. Nick Pivetta is the revelation from this group -- a young dynamic arm who actually began refining his power curve-high fastball combination last September.

Add a surprisingly effective changeup and vastly improved location and Pivetta looks to have staying power. The 6-foot-5 Canadian has an 0.47 ERA over his last three starts, with 25 Ks and 2 walks.

"I'd say this current level of team success will continue as long as the starting pitching keeps performing as it has," John Kruk said the other night.

"I would agree with that," T-Mac said obediently.

I'm not sure I do. I see an offense that has yet to find any consistency or identity. You have core-order guys like Rhys Hoskins (.167 in May), Aaron Altherr (.190 overall), Carlos Santana (.200 overall) and Scott Kingery (.214 in May, .221 overall) who remain in the struggle zone.

BTW, after slamming 18 homers in his first 34 games, Hoskins is hitting .215 with 6 dingers in nearly half a season. I still believe in Rhys Hoskins, but I sure would like to see him have a good week or two.

Defensively, the consistency is even more elusive. The Phils are regularly spectacular on defense, particularly in center field and catcher. Unfortunately, they are just as often sloppy and undisciplined.

In short, I do think these 2-1 wins could become 6-4 wins as the season drags into the dog days. There's much room for improvement in the non-pitching areas.

2. Jorge Alfaro: Someone asked me the other day how I could be so excited about Alfaro when he still has major holes in his game.

I thought about that and the answer is I'm so excited about Alfaro BECAUSE he still has major holes in his game.

Jorge is already changing games because he can do things no other catcher in the game can. Like this:

I was watching this game and the cameras followed Ender Inciarte into the dugout. The bewildered look never left his face as he sought comprehension from teammates.

Alfaro has the five hardest throws by a catcher this season. He has a howitzer and it is accurate. He is tied for the Major League lead with 10 runners caught stealing. He's nabbed 10 out of 29 overall, but 8 of the last 11.

We are witnessing one of the best things about being a baseball fan: a talented young player realizing he belongs at the highest level. The confidence is growing with each game.

A word about the bat and that sad-looking .648 OPS. Over the past month, Alfaro is hitting .292 with a .773 OPS.

Among position players, Alfaro is third in WAR, ahead of Hoskins, Santana and Franco. This despite starting just 33 of the first 49 games.

We've got a player here.

3. Health: If you're a superstitious Phillies fan, you might stop reading here. The rest of you can continue with admiration and thanks to trainer Scott Sheridan for how healthy the squad has been.

I've been a fan for going on 40 years and can't remember playing the first 50 games with essentially the same starting eight position players, the same five starting pitchers and the same back-end bullpen composition.

Bullpenners Pat Heshek and Tommy Hunter were injured in spring training, as was starter Jerad Eickhoff. And I don't quite consider JP Crawford the starting shortstop yet.

These are the only significant injuries to date.

After the 50th game of 2017, the Phillies had lost Howie Kendrick from the lineup and Aaron Nola and Vince Velasquez from the rotation.

The record was 20-30.

What a difference a year makes.

Will Utley Rise Amid Cano's Fall?

There are no Chase Utley blog posts in my archive, despite my endless inspiration to write a tribute to The Man.

What invariably happens is I get lost watching video clips. There's Utley getting hit in the back during the 2010 NLCS, then casually tossing the ball back to emasculated Giants lefty Jonathan Sanchez.

There's Utley scoring from second base on a groundout versus the Braves. The look on Braves' Manager Bobby Cox's face is epic, as Harry Kalas bellows "Chase Utley, you are The Man!"

Then, of course, there's the five-word speech that will live forever in Philadelphia:

Chase Utley belongs in the Baseball Hall of Fame in my book. But I am obviously biased. I have long understood that five years as the best second baseman (and one of the best players) in MLB might not be enough.

The Man plays Machiavellian baseball: The ends justify the means. Utley is not interested in fraternizing with opponents, is willing to slide a half-second late if it means breaking up a double play, and plays with a tightly controlled intensity. He's been hit by 200 pitches, eighth all-time.

But injuries are the trade-off.

Starting in 2010, Utley began missing chunks of seasons while dazzling American League peer Robinson Cano grabbed the "Best Second Baseman" label. Robby hit .319 and whacked 29 homers that year in the first of seven All-Star seasons.

Admittedly, it was a tough pill to swallow seeing Cano reign as a top second sacker right through 2017. Robby is everything Chase isn't: smooth and languid -- and healthy. Often "too cool for his shoes," as Larry Anderson might say.

He's also apparently a PED user. The news stunned, but at least one ex-Yankee is not at all surprised. Mark Teixeira's comments broke the player code and speak to the frustration level with cheaters inside the game.

Headlines immediately declared Cano's Hall of Fame chances dead. I wonder if Chase Utley's might get a boost by being the anti-Cano.

It's still going to be a tough sell. Cano was regarded as a borderline case before his 80-game ban and his OPS is .848. Utley's is .826.

Of course, Utley has a lot of Utley things to dazzle voters. Like this ridiculous play that might have won a World Series for the Phillies:

To me, Chase Utley's legacy is his incredible baseball instincts. The play above is a perfect example.
Utley the baserunner is another.

I've never equated Chase Utley with blinding speed, or even great speed. He runs well, but that doesn't explain how he ranks No. 1 in MLB history in stolen base percentage.

Chase has 153 stolen bases and been caught 21 times. He has a remarkable aptitude for reading pitchers and catchers and doing everything possible to gain even a slight edge.

This is not an easy skill at all. The Phillies' current second baseman -- the very fine Cesar Hernandez -- is a much faster runner than Utley ever was, yet he has 61 steals and 29 caught stealing in six years.

Chase Utley never led the league in hitting, or home runs, or RBI. He never finished in the top five in the MVP vote. He led the league in runs with 131 in 2006, otherwise, the only bold on his career ledger is the three straight years he led the league in getting hit by pitches (2007-09).

Somehow, this seems appropriate. He won a World Series ring, and hit five home runs in the next Fall Classic.

And The Man was the leader of every clubhouse he resided.

His next, and permanent, residence should be in Cooperstown.

This Feels Familiar, Yet Altogether Different

For the second time in three years, the Phightin' Phillies are 22-15 after 37 games.

That stunning start to 2016 stands out as evidence of how ludicrous baseball can be over the course of 162 games. Those Jeremy Hellickson-led Phils won a remarkable 14 one-run games those first six weeks (look it up). And they didn't even have a good bullpen.

The Phillies did not win another one-run game until June 7. By then, they were already under .500. Even at 22-15, nobody thought the Phils had turned any corners.

They were simply a bad team getting a lot of lucky breaks. Those things even out over 162 and the squad finished up that campaign with the predictable 71-91 record.

This 22-15 feels a lot different. For starters, this team is +39 in run differential, whereas the 2016 Phils were -25.

The current team is 8th in MLB in runs scored and 6th in earned run average. More encouraging, they have developed some welcome depth in key areas.

Seven different hitters have at least four home runs. Starting pitcher Jerad Eickhoff is coming back soon, and might not have a spot.

But it's the bullpen where the depth is most impressive. Young arms like Victor Arano (12 innings, 0.75 era), and Edubray Ramos (15 in, 1.20) are pushing the veterans Adam Morgan (11 in, 2.45), Luis Garcia (15 in., 3.00), and Tommy Hunter (3.86) for the right to set up closer Hecter Neris (14.2 in, 3.68).

The best arm might have arrived Monday when touted fireballer Seranthony Dominguez made his debut. In three clean innings this week, Seranthony showed the 98-99 mph heat and wipeout slider we've heard so much about.

It's almost welcome news that veteran All-Star reliever Pat Neshak will be out another month. General Manager Matt Klentak might be looking to deal from an absurd strength once he does.

Obviously, it's the starting pitching that will tell the story on what these Phillies accomplish. Specifically, the starters that follow Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta. A potential second-half boost resides in Lehigh Valley in 22-year-old Enyel De Los Santos (4-0, 0.84).

There are some signs these Phillies have more to give. The offense is certainly productive, but with a collective .241 batting average that ranks 18th. One would think that will improve.

Jimmy Rollins was in town Monday and the cameras found him for a brief interview. In between the usual cliches, J-Roll dropped some wisdom about how a young team finds a winning formula.

"The winning streaks will come. It's not about that," Rollins said. "But when things aren't going well, can you stop two losses from becoming five losses? In other words, can you play .500 baseball during the rough spots?"

Cap'n Kap's crew roared to a 14-7 start before the rough patch hit. Back-end starters Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez were knocked around, and the pen blew a bad one and lost a couple extra-inning games. A few pesky injuries sent Morgan and shortstop JP Crawford to the DL.

Yet here we are 22-15. They played .500 the past two-and-a-half weeks. Compare that to the Mets, who followed up an 11-1 start with 6-17. And they are -14 in run differential.

The Phils have 125 to go. I am virtually certain they win more than 49.

Can We Finally Put 'Bad Vince' on the Shelf?

Watching Vince Velasquez pitch these days is best accompanied by alcohol of some sort, or a sedative.

Unfortunately, April 7 found me halfway around the world in Taiwan for Velasquez's second start against the Miami Marlins. That meant a 7 a.m. first pitch -- too early for beers or pills.

The agony began quickly, with typically nibbling Vince going 3-2 on the first three Marlins. Starlin Castro stroked a double. VV uncorked a wild pitch to plate a run.

It was all so familiar. Vince's first start of the year ended after 2.2 innings, with 9 hits, 4 runs and a game surrendered to the Atlanta Braves.

As Justin Bour stepped in for the Marlins, I noticed that Zach Eflin pitched a gem earlier in the day for the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs. Seemed logical that Eflin would switch uniforms with Velasquez for their next starts.

I tweeted that prediction.

Then something happened -- the Phillies' offense eviscerated Marlins' pitching. Five runs in the first inning were followed by four runs in the third and eight runs in the fourth.

Vince relaxed. The ever-present tension evaporated. He threw free and easy. He threw strikes -- a lot of them.

The final line reveals a terrific start: 6 innings, 4 hits, 1 run. You have to look closer to see VV's remarkable transformation from a thrower who threw nine balls to the first three hitters to the pitcher who offered up just seven balls the final three innings combined.

"He told me, 'I learned that my stuff is good enough,'" Comcast reporter David Murphy recounted.

His stuff has always been good enough. Vince is a legitimate four-pitch starter. According to BrooksBaseball, he threw mostly fastballs in that Marlins game, which makes sense given the huge lead.

Of the 67 fastballs he threw, 39 were "strikes not in play," a terrific 65 percent. By comparison, Gerrit Cole threw the same day, and 69 percent of his fastballs were SNIPs. Cole just set a Major League record for most strikeouts in the first three starts of a season.

Vince continued his momentum against the Rays Friday night, tossing 6.2 innings and giving up 4 hits, 1 run and recording 7 Ks.

Here's where it gets interesting: he did it with a completely different game plan. After throwing just two change-ups his first two starts, Vince threw six (with three whiffs) in the first inning alone.

Of his first 33 pitches, just 15 were fastballs. Yet, he walked just one batter on the night and had near-pinpoint control of his slider and curve.

Are we seeing a return of the 2016 Vince Velasquez who began his Phillies' career with two starts, 15 innings, 25 Ks, six hits and three walks?

This is impossible to predict given the emotional ride we have endured since that 16-strikeout complete game shutout exactly two years ago today.

I have always been a believer in Vince, while most Phillies' fans want him banished to the bullpen.

The talented 25-year-old struggles mightily with self-criticism and confidence. His last two starts are just 191 pitches of what has been a rocky, two-year maturation process.

So it's all wins and champagne showers from here? I doubt it. Vince's lone walk Friday came in the bottom of the fifth inning after a very close 1-2 pitch was called a ball. The next four pitches were out of the zone as Bad Vince returned.

Confidence and composure are things Vince is likely going to battle to control for some time to come.

The fact that he keeps getting up off the floor two years into this journey tells me he is going to make it.